Result
3:1
12/04/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 29
- Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.65 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (289/367) | 60% (145/241) |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.67 | 0.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (289/367) | 60% (145/241) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (15/55) | 29% (19/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (55/91) | 50% (49/98) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (5/23) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 84% (16/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 42 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.92 | 2.67 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.08 | -0.33 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 1', 0 - 1, Marques J. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 49', 1 - 1, Figueiredo ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
- 58', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 63', 2 - 1, Chiquinho ⚽,
- 68', Livolant J. ↓, Livramento D. ↑,
- 69', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 69', Marques J. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
- 75', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
- 82', Sousa D. ↓, Geraldes A. ↑,
- 83', 3 - 1, Rhaldney ⚽, Marezi (A),
- 87', Figueiredo ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
- 87', Rhaldney ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 90+3', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 90+3', Chiquinho ↓, Kassary Z. ↑,
Chances of winning
Alverca
49.1% | Draw
28.3% | Casa Pia
22.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
Alverca - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↓
(2.11) |
3.33 ↓
(3.44) |
4.18 ↑
(3.76) |
5.5%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Alverca - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- Alverca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Casa Pia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Casa Pia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Alverca is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S.
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chissumba
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Brito R.
(Injury)
Ofori L.
(Injury)
Severina X.
(Inactive)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Casa Pia?
Alverca has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Alverca?
Casa Pia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Casa Pia were as follows:
29.11.2025
Casa Pia
-
Alverca
0:2
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
