Result
3:3
23/01/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 19
- Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 3.33 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 27 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 47% (99/209) | 50% (137/276) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 3.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.53 | 3.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 27 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 14 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 13 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 51 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 47% (99/209) | 50% (137/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 20% (17/83) | 29% (24/83) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 45% (38/85) | 40% (55/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (4/17) | 22% (8/36) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 2.59 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 37 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (2/4) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 81 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.32 | 2.53 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | -0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Sousa D. ⚽, Brito R. (A),
- 13', Roni 🟨,
- 30', Semedo R. 🟨,
- 44', Pedro Lima 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 3)
- 50', 2 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽,
- 60', Roni ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
- 60', Perea O. ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
- 63', Cassiano 🟨,
- 64', Morais T. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
- 65', 3 - 0, Osundina K. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
- 67', Tomane ↓, Nene ↑,
- 67', Akinsola T. ↓, Neiva G. ↑,
- 69', Rivas L. 🟨,
- 74', Conte A. 🟨,
- 75', 3 - 1, Nene (Penalty Awarded),
- 80', Brito R. ↓, Ofori L. ↑,
- 80', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
- 81', Kiki 🟨,
- 88', Goulart J. 🟨,
- 90', 3 - 2, Nene (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+3', Livolant J. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 90+9', 3 - 3, Neiva G. ⚽, Pedro Lima (A),
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
46.1% | Draw
29.7% | AVS
24.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for AVS than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Casa Pia - AVS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.06 ↓
(2.08) |
3.19 ↓
(3.35) |
3.86 ↓
(3.97) |
5.8%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - AVS?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- 1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.75 - Casa Pia (2.35) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1 - Casa Pia (3.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.5 - Casa Pia (2.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Casa Pia (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Users Predictions:
Casa Pia will win
(21 of 25 users predict this - 84%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.63% – 98.37%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Casa Pia will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 17 - 94.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- Both teams are struggling and far from their best.
- Casa Pia will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Mendes C.
(Red Card)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in AVS: Devenish C.
(Red Card)
Grau J.
(Yellow Cards)
Molina G.
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Fonte J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T.
(Coach's decision)
Roni
(Injury)
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against AVS?
Casa Pia has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Casa Pia?
AVS has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - AVS were as follows:
15.08.2025
AVS
-
Casa Pia
0:2
19.04.2025
AVS
-
Casa Pia
1:1
08.12.2024
Casa Pia
-
AVS
1:1
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
