Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Australian A-League
Result
1:0
01/02/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • A-League - Round 15
  • Referee: Danaskos T. (Aus)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
asiaAsiaSPOTV 2 Asia
australiaAustraliaParamount+
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
hong-kongHong-kongM Plus Live, myTV SUPER
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaSPOTV 2, Vidio
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Go
mongoliaMongoliaSPOTV 2
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 4
philippinesPhilippinesSPOTV 2
singaporeSingaporeSPOTV 2
thailandThailandSPOTV 2, True ID, True Premier Football 4
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 3
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
vietnamVietnamSPOTV 2

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.542.49
Ball possession
33%67%
Total shots
727
Shots on target
19
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
315
Passes
70% (222/317)84% (546/647)
Yellow cards
21
Red cards
10
Expected goals (xG)
0.542.49
xG on target (xGOT)
0.481.76
Total shots
727
Shots on target
19
Shots off target
410
Blocked shots
28
Shots inside the box
513
Shots outside the box
214
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
13
Corner kicks
315
Touches in opposition box
1050
Accurate through passes
03
Offsides
14
Free kicks
67
Passes
70% (222/317)84% (546/647)
Long passes
26% (18/68)44% (25/57)
Passes in final third
56% (47/84)78% (204/260)
Crosses
9% (1/11)26% (10/38)
Expected assists (xA)
0.302.85
Throw ins
1617
Fouls
76
Tackles
67% (6/9)50% (6/12)
Duels won
4240
Clearances
4711
Interceptions
115
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
90
xGOT faced
1.760.48
Goals prevented
1.76-0.52

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 35', 1 - 0, Auglah A. ⚽, Di Pizio M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Clarismario ↓, Velupillay N. ↑,
  • 46', Genreau D. ↓, Valadon J. ↑,
  • 55', Paull N. 🟥,
  • 58', James Ngor S. ↓, Tapp B. ↑,
  • 61', Donachie J. 🟨,
  • 71', Grimaldi M. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
  • 71', Vergos N. ↓, Nduka C. ↑,
  • 71', Lavale O. ↓, Blair N. ↑,
  • 72', Auglah A. ↓, Nasso J. ↑,
  • 80', Mauragis L. 🟨,
  • 82', D'Arrigo L. ↓, Reec J. ↑,
  • 90', Reec J. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Di Pizio M. ↓, Theoharous C. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Central Coast Mariners
19.6%		Draw
22%		Melbourne Victory
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.6% 25.5% 48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6% 25.5% 48.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Central Coast Mariners has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Central Coast Mariners's form might have worsened.
  • Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Victory's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Central Coast Mariners than the current prediction. (+6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Central Coast Mariners, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Victory, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.83 ↑
    (3.58)    		 4.29 ↑
    (3.6)    		 1.62 ↓
    (1.88)    		 5.6%
    (9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.75 - Melbourne Victory (1.71) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH +1 - Melbourne Victory (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.57) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Melbourne Victory (1.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Melbourne Victory (1.23) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Melbourne Victory (1.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Melbourne Victory will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Melbourne Victory will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 25 high ROI users predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 23 - 92%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 8).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Central Coast may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Melbourne Victory has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Melbourne Victory is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Central Coast: Brandtman B. (Inactive) Sainsbury T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There will not play in Melbourne Victory: Hamill B. (Knee Injury) Roderick (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Melbourne Victory: Esposito S. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Central Coast won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:35. (average 1.3:1.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Central Coast won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:12. (average 1.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory were as follows:
    08.03.2025 Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners 3:0
    18.10.2024 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 0:0
    25.05.2024 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 3:1
    25.02.2024 Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners 0:1
    13.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners - Melbourne Victory 1:1
    Latest results of Central Coast Mariners
    23.01.2026 Auckland FC - Central Coast Mariners 2:2 ✺
    17.01.2026 Central Coast Mariners - Macarthur FC 1:1 ✺
    10.01.2026 Perth Glory - Central Coast Mariners 3:0 ✺
    04.01.2026 Adelaide United - Central Coast Mariners 0:4 ✺
    31.12.2025 Central Coast Mariners - Brisbane Roar 1:2 ✺
    Latest results of Melbourne Victory
    26.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Sydney 4:0 ✺
    17.01.2026 Adelaide United - Melbourne Victory 2:1 ✺
    10.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Western Sydney Wanderers 0:1 ✺
    02.01.2026 Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory 3:2 ✺
    29.12.2025 Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix 5:1 ✺
    Australian A-League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Newcastle Jets19121641:291237
    2Auckland FC19105432:181435
    3Sydney FC19102726:18832
    4Adelaide United1993733:28530
    5Melbourne Victory1984728:24428
    6Macarthur FC1967624:28-425
    7Central Coast Mariners1865724:26-223
    8Brisbane Roar2065919:25-623
    9Melbourne City1957720:27-722
    10Perth Glory19631022:30-821
    11WS Wanderers1955921:26-520
    12Wellington Phoenix1955928:39-1120

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