Result
0:0
11/04/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 16
- Referee: Romero B. (Par)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.19 | 1.26 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (153/217) | 87% (389/447) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.19 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.03 | 0.98 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 13 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (153/217) | 87% (389/447) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (19/49) | 65% (24/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (35/67) | 77% (92/120) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 24% (8/34) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 1.03 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 11', Luciatti A. 🟨,
- 25', Bobadilla C. 🟨,
- 45+4', Diaz F. ↓, Vargas S. ↑,
- 45+7', Valdez I. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Luciatti A. ↓, Velazquez G. ↑,
- 46', Santacruz J. ↓, Colman Escobar D. J. ↑,
- 46', Bobadilla C. ↓, Paez E. ↑,
- 50', Meza L. 🟥,
- 55', Samudio A. ↓, Torales S. ↑,
- 56', Servin L. J. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
- 59', Morel J. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
- 64', Canete Torres A. D. 🟨,
- 78', Klimowicz M. ↓, Franco C. ↑,
- 81', Bailone I. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,
- 81', Prieto R. ↓, Espinola C. ↑,
- 89', Rojas S. 🟨,
- 90+7', Perez M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional Asuncion
37.3% | Draw
30.8% | Cerro Porteño
31.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Asuncion's performance.Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Porteño might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-10.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Asuncion that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+12.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerro Porteño could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↓
(3.46) |
3.03 ↓
(3.17) |
2.91 ↑
(2.14) |
6.9%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño?
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 and 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Cerro Porteño is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Nacional has had a series of away games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:33. (average 1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1.1:2.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Asuncion won against Cerro Porteño?
Nacional Asuncion has won 2 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerro Porteño won against Nacional Asuncion?
Cerro Porteño has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño were as follows:
15.02.2026
Cerro Porteño
-
Nacional Asuncion
0:2
27.10.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Cerro Porteño
1:2
08.08.2025
Cerro Porteño
-
Nacional Asuncion
0:0
15.04.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Cerro Porteño
1:3
01.02.2025
Cerro Porteño
-
Nacional Asuncion
3:1
Latest results of Nacional Asuncion
Latest results of Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28:12 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 26:14 | 12 | 34 |
| 3 | Ameliano | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:15 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 25:19 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 23:18 | 5 | 26 |
| 6 | Guarani | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 25:20 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Libertad Asuncion | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25:22 | 3 | 24 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 14:21 | -7 | 21 |
| 10 | Sp. Luqueno | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 21:28 | -7 | 18 |
| 11 | 2 de Mayo | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14:33 | -19 | 15 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12:36 | -24 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
