Result
2:3
31/03/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 14
- Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.73 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (253/313) | 85% (347/407) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 2.03 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (253/313) | 85% (347/407) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (17/41) | 62% (23/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (47/75) | 71% (87/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (2/8) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 4 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (20/25) | 86% (12/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.03 | 1.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.97 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 3)
- 14', 0 - 1, Bobadilla C. ⚽,
- 20', 0 - 2, Aliseda I. ⚽, Benitez A. G. (A),
- 28', Gamarra J. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
- 28', 1 - 2, Diaz S. ⚽,
- 38', 1 - 3, Morel J. ⚽, Vegetti P. (A),
- 45+3', 2 - 3, Comas L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 45+4', Dominguez F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Morel J. ↓, Piris R. ↑,
- 51', Aguilar A. 🟥,
- 54', Ruiz O. ↓, Mongelos F. ↑,
- 58', Bogado G. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
- 58', Comas L. ↓, Ojeda M. ↑,
- 61', Vegetti P. 🟨,
- 64', Dominguez F. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
- 64', Peralta F. ↓, Sanchez V. ↑,
- 69', Benitez F. 🟨,
- 73', Dominguez C. 🟨,
- 79', Bobadilla C. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
- 80', Maggi I. 🟨,
- 89', Ojeda M. 🟨,
- 90+1', Vegetti P. ↓, Sonora A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sportivo Luqueño
20.4% | Draw
27.1% | Cerro Porteño
52.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.56 ↑
(3.84) |
3.45 ↑
(3.41) |
1.77 ↓
(1.93) |
7.3%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño?
Users Predictions:
Cerro Porteño will win
(8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 0.
- Sportivo Luqueño is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Cerro Porteño is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Cerro Porteño is considered a favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 0.8:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Luqueño won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Sportivo Luqueño won against Cerro Porteño?
Sportivo Luqueño has won 2 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerro Porteño won against Sportivo Luqueño?
Cerro Porteño has won 5 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño were as follows:
02.02.2026
Cerro Porteño
-
Sportivo Luqueño
2:0
27.09.2025
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Cerro Porteño
0:1
20.07.2025
Cerro Porteño
-
Sportivo Luqueño
0:0
12.04.2025
Cerro Porteño
-
Sportivo Luqueño
0:0
29.01.2025
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Cerro Porteño
1:1
Latest results of Sportivo Luqueño
Latest results of Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 26:9 | 17 | 39 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 25:13 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Ameliano | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 27 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 22:17 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21:17 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 22:17 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10:21 | -11 | 15 |
| 10 | Sp. Luqueno | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18:25 | -7 | 15 |
| 11 | 2 de Mayo | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12:26 | -14 | 14 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 11:33 | -22 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
