Chapecoense vs Grêmio Novorizontino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B
Result
1:0
04/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 30
  • Referee: Furtado A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+, ESPN 4

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.571.33
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
1516
Shots on target
71
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
24
Passes
82% (304/372)82% (323/393)
Yellow Cards
52
Expected Goals (xG)
1.571.33
xG on target (xGOT)
1.940.10
Total shots
1516
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
311
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
611
Shots outside the Box
95
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
24
Touches in opposition box
1425
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1118
Passes
82% (304/372)82% (323/393)
Long passes
46% (39/85)34% (14/41)
Passes in final third
61% (56/92)70% (93/132)
Crosses
36% (5/14)16% (3/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.901.16
Throw-ins
2916
Fouls
1811
Tackles
67% (6/9)50% (8/16)
Duels won
4347
Clearances
2214
Interceptions
73
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
0.101.94
Goals prevented
0.100.94

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 19', Jorge Jimenez 🟨,
  • 25', Jorge Jimenez ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
  • 42', Patrick 🟨,
  • 45', Joao Paulo 🟨,
  • 45+3', Rafael Donato 🟨,
  • 45+3', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Bruno Jose ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
  • 59', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
  • 59', Bruno Leonardo ↓, Victor Caetano ↑,
  • 59', Neto Pessoa ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
  • 60', 1 - 0, Pedro Perotti ⚽, Victor Caetano (A),
  • 71', Ruiz O. ↓, Lucca ↑,
  • 71', Mayk ↓, Romulo ↑,
  • 73', David Antunes ↓, Gabriel Inocencio ↑,
  • 79', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
  • 79', Waguininho ↓, Airton ↑,
  • 84', Victor Caetano 🟨,
  • 90+3', Rafael Santos 🟨,

Chances of winning


Chapecoense
36.6%		Draw
31.1%		Grêmio Novorizontino
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.7% 29% 28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1% 30.6% 26.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chapecoense's form might have worsened.
  • Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chapecoense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-5.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.56 ↑
    (2.21)    		 2.98 ↓
    (3.25)    		 2.9 ↓
    (3.33)    		 7.2%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DNB - Novorizontino (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Chapecoense (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Chapecoense (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 40%). Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 and 5).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 1.
    • Chapecoense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Novorizontino is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Chapecoense: Bressan (Injury) Bruno Matias (Injury) Everton (Yellow Cards) Mancha (Knee Injury) Victor Caetano (Injury)
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Rai Ramos (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Robson (Yellow Cards) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Chapecoense: Getulio (Injury) Giovanni Augusto (Injury) Jorge Jimenez (Injury) Marlon (Inactive) Vinicius Balieiro (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Caio Dantas (Inactive) Nathan Fogaca (Injury)
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:
    06.06.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense 1:0
    02.11.2024 Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:2
    18.07.2024 Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense 1:0
    20.08.2023 Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense 1:2
    06.05.2023 Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:1
    Latest results of Chapecoense
    29.09.2025 Amazonas - Chapecoense 1:3
    28.09.2025 Chapecoense - Santa Catarina 0:3
    25.09.2025 Chapecoense - Avaí 0:1 ✺
    21.09.2025 Cuiabá - Chapecoense 1:0
    17.09.2025 Chapecoense - Brusque 0:0
    Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
    28.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova 1:1 ✺
    23.09.2025 Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:1 ✺
    19.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club 1:0 ✺
    15.09.2025 Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:2 ✺
    08.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense 1:1 ✺
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2026
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Avai00000:000
    2Ceara00000:000
    3Sport Recife00000:000
    4Goias00000:000
    5Nautico00000:000
    6CRB00000:000
    7Criciuma00000:000
    8Vila Nova FC00000:000
    9Juventude00000:000
    10Ponte Preta00000:000
    11Fortaleza00000:000
    12Atletico GO00000:000
    13America MG00000:000
    14Botafogo SP00000:000
    15Londrina00000:000
    16Sao Bernardo00000:000
    17Cuiaba00000:000
    18Operario-PR00000:000
    19Novorizontino00000:000
    20Athletic Club00000:000

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