Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS
Football MLS Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union
Result
0:1
30/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Referee: Boiko S. (Ukr)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video
italyItalyAmazon Prime Video
usaUsaMLS Season Pass
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.182.38
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1214
Shots on target
34
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
74
Passes
76% (347/456)70% (234/336)
Yellow Cards
25
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.182.38
xG on target (xGOT)
0.241.39
Total shots
1214
Shots on target
34
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
88
Shots outside the Box
46
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
74
Touches in opposition box
2722
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1713
Passes
76% (347/456)70% (234/336)
Long passes
36% (20/56)25% (13/53)
Passes in final third
63% (76/120)61% (70/115)
Crosses
17% (4/23)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.190.99
Throw-ins
2021
Fouls
1317
Tackles
40% (4/10)56% (9/16)
Duels won
6151
Clearances
3038
Interceptions
1012
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.390.24
Goals prevented
0.390.24

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 22', Marczuk D. 🟨,
  • 22', Makhanya O. 🟨,
  • 45+4', Glesnes J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 49', 0 - 1, Damiani B. ⚽,
  • 51', Harriel N. 🟨,
  • 61', Makhanya O. 🟨,
  • 63', Sullivan Q. ↓, Westfield F. ↑,
  • 63', Baribo T. ↓, Vassilev I. ↑,
  • 64', Marczuk D. ↓, Orellano L. ↑,
  • 64', Anunga T. ↓, Valenzuela G. ↑,
  • 74', Damiani B. ↓, Uhre M. ↑,
  • 74', Echenique E. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,
  • 84', Iloski M. ↓, Rafanello J. ↑,
  • 85', Westfield F. 🟨,
  • 89', Engel L. ↓, Kamara K. ↑,
  • 90+1', Denkey K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
37.3%		Draw
25.6%		Philadelphia Union
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.5% 22.8% 25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3% 23.2% 25.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cincinnati's form might have worsened.
  • Philadelphia Union has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Philadelphia Union's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+15%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-11.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.54 ↑
    (1.83)    		 3.72 ↓
    (4.13)    		 2.6 ↓
    (3.65)    		 4.7%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 4% – 71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 3.
    • Recent form of Cincinnati has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Philadelphia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Nwobodo O. (Thigh Injury) Orellano L. (Muscle Injury) Robinson M. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Philadelphia: Bender B. (Calf Injury) Blake A. (Injury) Glavinovich I. (Knee Injury) Vassilev I. (Concussion)
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1.1:1.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union were as follows:
    01.03.2025 Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati 4:1
    19.10.2024 Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati 1:2
    13.08.2024 Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union 2:4
    19.06.2024 Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union 4:3
    25.11.2023 Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union 1:0
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    23.08.2025 Cincinnati - New York City 0:1 ✺
    16.08.2025 Portland Timbers - Cincinnati 2:3 ✺
    10.08.2025 Cincinnati - Charlotte 0:1 ✺
    07.08.2025 Cincinnati - Chivas Guadalajara 1:2 ✺
    03.08.2025 Cincinnati - Juárez 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of Philadelphia Union
    23.08.2025 Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire 4:0 ✺
    16.08.2025 New York Red Bulls - Philadelphia Union 1:0 ✺
    13.08.2025 Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls 3:2 ✺
    09.08.2025 Philadelphia Union - Toronto FC 1:1 ✺
    02.08.2025 Philadelphia Union - Eintracht Frankfurt 2:2
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC ✔ 33186960:411960
    2Minnesota United ✔ 331610755:371858
    3Vancouver Whitecaps ✔ 31169659:342557
    4Los Angeles FC ✔ 30158760:372353
    5Seattle Sounders321310955:47849
    6Austin FC321281235:43-844
    7Portland Timbers3311111141:44-344
    8FC Dallas3210111149:52-341
    9Real Salt Lake321241636:46-1040
    10Colorado Rapids331171542:54-1240
    11San Jose Earthquakes321081457:58-138
    12Houston Dynamo33991543:56-1336
    13St. Louis City33871842:56-1431
    14Sporting Kansas City33762046:70-2427
    15Los Angeles Galaxy32591842:64-2224


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union ✔ 33206757:332466
    2FC Cincinnati ✔ 33195949:40962
    3Inter Miami ✔ 32178772:531959
    4Charlotte ✔ 331821353:46756
    5New York City ✔ 331751149:42756
    6Nashville SC331661156:401654
    7Orlando City321411760:451553
    8Chicago Fire331571166:58852
    9Columbus Crew331312852:50251
    10New York Red Bulls331271447:44343
    11New England Revolution33981642:49-735
    12Toronto FC325141333:40-729
    13CF Montreal336101734:57-2328
    14Atlanta Utd315121437:57-2027
    15DC United335101829:65-3625

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    San Diego FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Minnesota United is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Vancouver Whitecaps is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Los Angeles FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    FC Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Inter Miami is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Charlotte is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New York City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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