Result
0:1
08/02/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 7
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, HBO Max, Sky+, SporTV, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (378/439) | 74% (211/285) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 1.09 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.12 | 1.26 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (378/439) | 74% (211/285) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 68% (49/72) | 36% (16/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (93/123) | 43% (25/58) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (6/25) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.07 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.26 | 0.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 19', Pereira M. 🟨,
- 38', Depay M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 41', Breno Bidon 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 56', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
- 58', Mauricio 🟨,
- 63', Vitor Roque ↓, Luighi ↑,
- 74', Pereira M. ↓, Garro R. ↑,
- 84', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽,
- 88', Breno Bidon ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,
- 88', Andre ↓, Dieguinho ↑,
- 88', Allan Elias ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
- 90+1', Lopez J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 90+2', Matheus Bidu ↓, Vitinho ↑,
Chances of winning
Corinthians
33.7% | Draw
30.2% | Palmeiras
36.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1%)The ML Model estimate for Palmeiras aligns with the current prediction.
Corinthians - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.76 ↓
(2.8) |
3.06 ↑
(2.96) |
2.58 ↑
(2.58) |
7.6%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Corinthians - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Corinthians will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 2.
- Corinthians is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Palmeiras has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Corinthians may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Corinthians: Martinez J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Felipe Anderson
(Inactive)
Figueiredo
(Inactive)
Paulinho
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Corinthians: Hugo
(Injury)
Kaio Cesar
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Corinthians won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Corinthians won against Palmeiras?
Corinthians has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Corinthians?
Palmeiras has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Corinthians - Palmeiras were as follows:
31.08.2025
Corinthians
-
Palmeiras
1:1
06.08.2025
Palmeiras
-
Corinthians
0:2
30.07.2025
Corinthians
-
Palmeiras
1:0
12.04.2025
Palmeiras
-
Corinthians
2:0
27.03.2025
Corinthians
-
Palmeiras
0:0
Latest results of Corinthians
Latest results of Palmeiras
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
