Result
1:0
18/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 10
- Referee: Bell J. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 0.23 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (269/340) | 74% (248/335) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 0.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 0.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (269/340) | 74% (248/335) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (23/58) | 46% (28/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (51/72) | 52% (50/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 10% (3/31) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.47 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 81% (13/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 43 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.12 | 1.84 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.12 | 0.84 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 24', 1 - 0, Mills S. ⚽, De Keersmaecker B. (A),
- 43', Currie J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
- 55', Vaulks W. 🟨,
- 59', Clarke M. 🟨,
- 61', Weimann A. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
- 71', Mills S. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
- 71', Ozoh D. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
- 72', Brannagan C. 🟨,
- 84', Forsyth C. ↓, Elder C. ↑,
- 85', Brewster R. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 86', Brown C. 🟨,
- 89', Prelec N. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
- 89', Dembele S. ↓, Davies B. ↑,
Chances of winning
Oxford United
45.2% | Draw
31.3% | Derby County
23.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Oxford United - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.23 ↓
(2.5) |
3.31 ↑
(3.12) |
4.74 ↑
(3.07) |
-3.7%
(4.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Oxford United - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Derby will win (votes: 9 - 36%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 32%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 17.2% – 54.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 20).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Oxford: Phillips M.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Thompson L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Oxford: Johnson J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Derby: Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Oxford United won against Derby County?
Oxford United has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Oxford United?
Derby County has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Oxford United - Derby County were as follows:
11.02.2025
Derby County
-
Oxford United
0:0
22.10.2024
Oxford United
-
Derby County
1:1
29.12.2023
Oxford United
-
Derby County
2:3
15.08.2023
Derby County
-
Oxford United
1:2
11.03.2023
Oxford United
-
Derby County
2:3
Latest results of Oxford United
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 39 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 81:40 | 41 | 80 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 39 | 20 | 11 | 8 | 59:37 | 22 | 71 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 67:39 | 28 | 69 |
| 4 | Millwall | 39 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 53:44 | 9 | 69 |
| 5 | Hull | 39 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 62:57 | 5 | 66 |
| 6 | Southampton | 39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 63:48 | 15 | 63 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 39 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 60:51 | 9 | 63 |
| 8 | Derby | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 56:48 | 8 | 60 |
| 9 | Watford | 39 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 50:46 | 4 | 56 |
| 10 | Norwich | 39 | 16 | 6 | 17 | 52:46 | 6 | 54 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 39 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 48:49 | -1 | 53 |
| 12 | QPR | 39 | 15 | 8 | 16 | 55:61 | -6 | 53 |
| 13 | Preston | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 45:49 | -4 | 52 |
| 14 | Swansea | 39 | 15 | 7 | 17 | 44:49 | -5 | 52 |
| 15 | Stoke | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 46:43 | 3 | 51 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 49:50 | -1 | 51 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 39 | 15 | 5 | 19 | 54:54 | 0 | 50 |
| 18 | Charlton | 39 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 36:46 | -10 | 48 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 39 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 36:49 | -13 | 43 |
| 20 | West Brom | 39 | 11 | 10 | 18 | 40:54 | -14 | 43 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 38 | 10 | 10 | 18 | 37:54 | -17 | 40 |
| 22 | Leicester | 39 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 51:60 | -9 | 39 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 39 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 36:51 | -15 | 39 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 39 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 24:79 | -55 | -6 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
