Oxford United vs Derby County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship Oxford United - Derby County
Result
1:0
18/10/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 10
  • Referee: Bell J. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.23
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
196
Shots on target
71
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
412
Passes
79% (269/340)74% (248/335)
Yellow Cards
41
Expected Goals (xG)
1.820.23
xG on target (xGOT)
1.840.12
Total shots
196
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
82
Blocked Shots
43
Shots inside the Box
134
Shots outside the Box
62
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
412
Touches in opposition box
2216
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
129
Passes
79% (269/340)74% (248/335)
Long passes
40% (23/58)46% (28/61)
Passes in final third
71% (51/72)52% (50/96)
Crosses
17% (2/12)10% (3/31)
Expected assists (xA)
0.910.47
Throw-ins
2321
Fouls
912
Tackles
62% (8/13)81% (13/16)
Duels won
5348
Clearances
4319
Interceptions
77
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
0.121.84
Goals prevented
0.120.84

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Mills S. , De Keersmaecker B. (A),
  • 43', Currie J. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Brereton Diaz B. , Clark B. ,
  • 55', Vaulks W. 🟨,
  • 59', Clarke M. 🟨,
  • 61', Weimann A. , Agyemang P. ,
  • 71', Mills S. , Placheta P. ,
  • 71', Ozoh D. , Blackett-Taylor C. ,
  • 72', Brannagan C. 🟨,
  • 84', Forsyth C. , Elder C. ,
  • 85', Brewster R. , Salvesen L. ,
  • 86', Brown C. 🟨,
  • 89', Prelec N. , Harris M. ,
  • 89', Dembele S. , Davies B. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Oxford United
45.2%
Draw
31.3%
Derby County
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.3% 30.6% 31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2% 30.5% 31.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Oxford United - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.23
    (2.5)
    3.31
    (3.12)
    4.74
    (3.07)
    -3.7%
    (4.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Oxford United - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Derby will win (votes: 9 - 36%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 32%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 17.2%54.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 20).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Oxford: Phillips M. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Thompson L. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Oxford: Johnson J. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Langas S. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Oxford United - Derby County were as follows:
    11.02.2025 Derby County - Oxford United 0:0
    22.10.2024 Oxford United - Derby County 1:1
    29.12.2023 Oxford United - Derby County 2:3
    15.08.2023 Derby County - Oxford United 1:2
    11.03.2023 Oxford United - Derby County 2:3
    Latest results of Oxford United
    Latest results of Derby County
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry1174031:82325
    2Middlesbrough1173115:7824
    3Millwall1162313:13020
    4Bristol City1154219:11819
    5Charlton1153313:9418
    6Stoke1153312:8418
    7Hull1153319:19018
    8QPR1153315:16-118
    9Leicester1145215:11417
    10West Brom1152412:13-117
    11Preston1144312:10216
    12Watford1143413:13015
    13Birmingham1143411:14-315
    14Ipswich1034316:13313
    15Wrexham1134415:16-113
    16Swansea1134410:11-113
    17Portsmouth1134410:12-213
    18Southampton1126312:15-312
    19Derby1125412:16-411
    20Oxford Utd1123611:14-39
    21Sheffield Utd113087:17-109
    22Norwich1122711:16-58
    23Blackburn102178:16-87
    24Sheffield Wed111379:23-146

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One