Result
2:1
11/04/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 42
- Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 8 |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport Extra |
 Usa | CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 0.91 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (384/462) | 74% (213/289) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.73 | 0.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.31 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 41 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (384/462) | 74% (213/289) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (27/55) | 42% (29/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (156/198) | 53% (46/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (6/34) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 14 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 50% (10/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.31 | 1.14 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.31 | -0.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', Clark B. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
- 38', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 53', Sanderson D. 🟨,
- 55', Fraulo O. 🟨,
- 62', 1 - 1, Scienza L. ⚽, Azaz F. (A),
- 64', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
- 64', Fellows T. ↓, Matsuki K. ↑,
- 66', Banel J. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
- 67', Ozoh D. ↓, Langas S. ↑,
- 67', Johnston M. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 1, Harwood-Bellis T. ⚽, Manning R. (A),
- 75', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
- 75', Azaz F. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
- 84', Travis L. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 87', Bree J. ↓, Wood N. ↑,
- 90+3', Larin C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Southampton
57.7% | Draw
23.5% | Derby County
18.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3%)
Southampton - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.77) |
4.02 ↑
(3.8) |
5.05 ↑
(4.09) |
5%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Southampton - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
Southampton will win
(15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Southampton will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).
- S`hampton is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Derby has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Derby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, S`hampton is the team to beat.
- There will not play in S`hampton: Roerslev Rasmussen M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Szmodics S.
(Injury)
Vickers J.
(Groin Injury)
Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Elder C.
(Toe Injury)
- We predict that S`hampton will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Southampton won against Derby County?
Southampton has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Southampton?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Southampton - Derby County were as follows:
04.10.2025
Derby County
-
Southampton
1:1
Latest results of Southampton
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 52 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 33 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 15 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 26 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 25 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 4 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 4 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 8 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 7 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 1 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | -2 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 0 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 0 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | -7 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | -12 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | -12 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | -5 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | -15 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | -14 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | -14 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | -10 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | -14 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | -10 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | -60 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
