Result
1:1
26/10/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 9
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 1.19 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (297/399) | 68% (184/271) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (297/399) | 68% (184/271) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (28/65) | 39% (25/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (57/112) | 47% (35/74) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (6/24) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 28 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 64% (14/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.87 | 1.25 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 37', 0 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽,
- 40', Ramirez J. 🟨,
- 45+2', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
- 60', 1 - 1, Begraoui Y. (Pen),
- 63', Costa G. 🟨,
- 66', Costa G. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
- 67', Labidi C. ↓, Soares F. ↑,
- 67', Pablo Ruan ↓, Witi ↑,
- 72', Lacximicant A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 72', Carvalho P. ↓, Marques A. ↑,
- 81', Begraoui Y. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 85', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 85', Holsgrove J. 🟨,
- 85', Paulinho Boia ↓, Watts ↑,
- 90+7', Carvalho J. 🟨,
- 90+8', Jose Gomes 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
37.2% | Draw
34% | Nacional
28.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estoril Praia's form might have worsened.Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estoril Praia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Estoril Praia - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.8 ↑
(2.16) |
2.88 ↓
(3.38) |
3.53 ↑
(3.26) |
-1.3%
(6.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Nacional (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Nacional (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 3.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Estoril may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Estoril is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Estoril: Xeka
(Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Knee Injury)
Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Lucas Franca
(Finger Injury)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Guitane R.
(Injury)
Sanchez R.
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Nacional?
Estoril Praia has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estoril Praia?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Nacional were as follows:
15.02.2025
Nacional
-
Estoril Praia
2:2
15.09.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
