Result
0:1
15/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 26
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (290/391) | 77% (257/334) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 1.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.36 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (290/391) | 77% (257/334) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (33/73) | 34% (21/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (80/139) | 65% (58/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (12/32) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (15/21) | 79% (11/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.36 | 0.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.64 | 0.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', 0 - 1, Bacher F. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
- 16', Carvalho J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Silva J. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 59', Jandro ↓, Xeka ↑,
- 59', Marques A. ↓, Guitane R. ↑,
- 59', Begraoui Y. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
- 63', Baeza M. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 63', Gabriel Veron ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 76', Ramirez J. 🟨,
- 78', Carvalho P. ↓, Amaral P. ↑,
- 78', Carvalho J. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 79', Matheus Dias ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 79', Paulinho Boia ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 80', Joao L. 🟨,
- 84', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 88', Robles J. 🟨,
- 90', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 90+3', Sanchez R. 🟨,
- 90+3', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
41.8% | Draw
27.1% | Estoril Praia
31.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estoril Praia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estoril Praia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nacional - Estoril Praia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.29 ↓
(2.55) |
3.48 ↓
(3.55) |
3.03 ↑
(2.6) |
5.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Nacional - Estoril Praia?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Estoril will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Nacional (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Recent form of Nacional has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Estoril has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Estoril: Boma K.
(Inactive)
Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
Lacximicant A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes
(Inactive)
Lucas Franca
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.2:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Estoril Praia?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Nacional?
Estoril Praia has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Estoril Praia were as follows:
26.10.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Nacional
1:1
15.02.2025
Nacional
-
Estoril Praia
2:2
15.09.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
