Result
3:1
07/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 13
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 0.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (395/454) | 75% (198/264) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.27 | 0.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.96 | 0.43 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (395/454) | 75% (198/264) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (27/50) | 39% (21/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (61/83) | 57% (35/61) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.43 | 2.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.57 | -0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 28', Alex Pinto 🟥,
- 29', 1 - 0, Kikas ⚽, Stoica I. (A),
- 34', 2 - 0, Marcus A. ⚽, Stoica I. (A),
- 45', Ngom O. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 51', Djouahra N. 🟨,
- 51', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 59', 2 - 1, Fukui T. ⚽,
- 62', van Ee E. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
- 68', Fukui T. 🟥,
- 68', Jovane ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 73', Ngom O. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
- 73', Otavio ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 73', Trezza A. ↓, Lee H. ↑,
- 82', Stoica I. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 82', Kikas ↓, Antonetti L. ↑,
- 82', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
- 85', Pedro Santos 🟨,
- 90', 3 - 1, Rodrigo Pinho ⚽, Meireles J. (A),
- 90+7', Lee H. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
48.9% | Draw
27.8% | Arouca
23.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estrela da Amadora's performance.Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arouca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-9.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estrela da Amadora that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+9.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Estrela da Amadora - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.94 ↓
(2.49) |
3.41 ↑
(3.35) |
4.04 ↑
(2.79) |
5.6%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Arouca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Estrela (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Estrela da Amadora will win
(14 of 14 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Estrela (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- Recent performances by Estrela have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Estrela will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Estrela: Encada J.
(Injury)
Ni
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
Fontan J.
(Red Card)
Tiago Esgaio
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Rocha M.
(Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Arouca?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Estrela da Amadora?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Arouca were as follows:
19.04.2025
Arouca
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:0
09.12.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Arouca
2:1
05.05.2024
Arouca
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:0
28.12.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Arouca
1:4
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 52:10 | 42 | 69 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 64:14 | 50 | 62 |
| 3 | Benfica | 26 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 55:17 | 38 | 62 |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 52:25 | 27 | 46 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 39:27 | 12 | 42 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 32:22 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 31:38 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 29:39 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 26:41 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26:45 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | Arouca | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 33:55 | -22 | 26 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:31 | -8 | 25 |
| 14 | Estrela | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 29:45 | -16 | 25 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 29:38 | -9 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
