Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

09/05/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer).

Eerste Divisie - Round 38
Referee: Wiersma W. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN Extra

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.31	1.36
Ball Possession
53%	47%
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
4	7
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
3	4
Passes
79% (388/491)	79% (345/439)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31	1.36
xG on target (xGOT)
1.88	1.07
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
4	7
Shots off target
4	5
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
5	8
Shots outside the Box
4	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
3	4
Touches in opposition box
18	23
Accurate through passes
1	2
Offsides
3	4
Free Kicks
17	9
Passes
79% (388/491)	79% (345/439)
Long passes
43% (34/80)	38% (24/63)
Passes in final third
74% (85/115)	60% (86/144)
Crosses
20% (1/5)	50% (5/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.49	1.32
Throw-ins
20	19
Fouls
9	17
Tackles
54% (15/28)	69% (11/16)
Duels won
64	45
Clearances
14	7
Interceptions
12	16
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
6	2
xGOT faced
1.07	1.88
Goals prevented
0.01	-0.12

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Sanches Fernandes D. ⚽, Naujoks N. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Robbemond R. ⚽,
41', van Aken J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Berkhout J. 🟨,
61', Naujoks N. ↓, Tielemans M. ↑,
62', Schouten L. ↓, van Duijl B. ↑,
68', Toppenberg K. ↓, Menu M. ↑,
68', Berkhout J. ↓, Smits A. ↑,
72', Warmerdam D. 🟨,
73', Bergraaf J. ↓, Omorowa R. ↑,
73', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Booth Z. ↑,
73', Fini S. ↓, Donkor J. ↑,
78', Bronkhorst I. 🟨,
81', Warmerdam D. ↓, Rosario R. ↑,
84', Kalisvaart J. ↓, Splinter I. ↑,
86', Robbemond R. ↓, Lenssen L. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, van Duijn S. ⚽,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/mv6hk64r

Chances of winning

Jong AZ Alkmaar
23.8%

Draw
21.3%

Excelsior
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

21%

59.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

21%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↓ (4.79)	4.39 ↓ (4.47)	1.7 ↑ (1.58)	6.8% (6.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

What is the prediction for Jong AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior?

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Excelsior will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DC - Jong AZ (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie).
Excelsior is Qualified for Eredivisie
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1.
Jong AZ has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Excelsior is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
In this match, Excelsior is the team to beat.
There will not play in Jong AZ: Esajas J. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.7:2.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Jong AZ Alkmaar won against Excelsior?

Jong AZ Alkmaar has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against Jong AZ Alkmaar?

Excelsior has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jong AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior were as follows:

27.09.2024 Excelsior - Jong AZ Alkmaar 4:2

Latest results of Jong AZ Alkmaar

02.05.2025 FC Eindhoven - Jong AZ Alkmaar 2:4 ✺

28.04.2025 Jong AZ Alkmaar - Den Bosch 0:0 ✺

18.04.2025 Emmen - Jong AZ Alkmaar 1:4 ✺

14.04.2025 Jong AZ Alkmaar - Volendam 0:1 ✺

07.04.2025 Jong AZ Alkmaar - Jong PSV 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Excelsior

02.05.2025 Excelsior - Jong PSV 5:0 ✺

27.04.2025 Excelsior - Emmen 2:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Volendam - Excelsior 1:4 ✺

11.04.2025 Excelsior - FC Oss 2:0 ✺

04.04.2025 MVV Maastricht - Excelsior 1:2 ✺

Dutch Eerste Divisie Table

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Den Haag ✔	35	27	2	6	82:34	48	83
2	Cambuur ✔	35	22	8	5	71:43	28	74
3	De Graafschap	35	17	8	10	68:53	15	59
4	Willem II	35	17	8	10	52:40	12	59
5	Almere City	35	17	4	14	72:57	15	55
6	Jong PSV	35	16	5	14	63:59	4	53
7	Waalwijk	35	14	10	11	61:53	8	52
8	Roda	35	13	12	10	54:49	5	51
9	Den Bosch	34	14	7	13	60:60	0	49
10	Dordrecht	35	11	11	13	45:50	-5	44
11	Eindhoven FC	35	13	5	17	49:63	-14	44
12	Venlo	35	12	5	18	44:52	-8	41
13	FC Emmen	35	11	8	16	55:65	-10	41
14	Vitesse	35	14	10	11	60:53	7	40
15	Jong Utrecht	34	10	9	15	52:58	-6	39
16	Jong AZ	35	11	4	20	59:71	-12	37
17	Maastricht	35	9	9	17	41:71	-30	36
18	Oss	35	8	11	16	46:61	-15	35
19	Helmond	35	9	8	18	40:61	-21	35
20	Jong Ajax	35	8	8	19	48:69	-21	32

Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Den Haag is Qualified for Eredivisie
Cambuur is Qualified for Eredivisie