Result
2:1
18/05/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
China | QQ Sports |
Japan | DAZN Japan, NHK BS1 |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.16 | 0.87 |
Ball Possession |
---|
44% | 56% |
Total shots |
---|
21 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
74% (290/394) | 84% (436/520) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.16 | 0.87 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.67 | 0.82 |
Total shots |
---|
21 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
8 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
7 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
16 | 4 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
5 | 3 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
32 | 16 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
2 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
12 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
74% (290/394) | 84% (436/520) |
Long passes |
---|
29% (14/48) | 36% (19/53) |
Passes in final third |
---|
63% (97/153) | 65% (62/96) |
Crosses |
---|
33% (8/24) | 31% (4/13) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.13 | 0.59 |
Throw-ins |
---|
29 | 27 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 12 |
Tackles |
---|
61% (14/23) | 52% (12/23) |
Duels won |
---|
60 | 53 |
Clearances |
---|
22 | 39 |
Interceptions |
---|
5 | 4 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 1 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
1 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 4 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.82 | 1.67 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.18 | -0.33 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Esaka A. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
- 15', 1 - 1, Hasegawa M. ⚽,
- 36', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 58', Okumura J. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
- 58', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
- 58', Kasai K. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,
- 58', 2 - 1, Ichimi K. (Pen),
- 67', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
- 67', Kimura T. ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
- 78', Danilo Gomes ↓, Ota S. ↑,
- 78', Hoshi Y. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
- 81', Tabei R. ↓, Takeuchi R. ↑,
- 81', Esaka A. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
- 89', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
- 90+2', Tatsuta Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fagiano Okayama 33.1% | Draw 32.3% | Albirex Niigata 34.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.81 ↑ (2.59) |
2.88 ↓ (2.99) |
2.7 ↓ (3.04) |
7.3% (4.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Niigata will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.
- Recent form of Okayama has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Niigata's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Niigata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Okayama has had a series of away games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Niigata: Akiyama H.
(Injury)
Ota S.
(Inactive)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Albirex Niigata?
Fagiano Okayama has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Fagiano Okayama?
Albirex Niigata has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata were as follows:
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Latest results of Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Vissel Kobe | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 34:22 | 12 | 46 |
2 | Kashima Antlers | 24 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 36:24 | 12 | 44 |
3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 33:23 | 10 | 44 |
4 | Kyoto | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 40:29 | 11 | 42 |
5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 29:18 | 11 | 42 |
6 | Machida | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 34:25 | 9 | 40 |
7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38:26 | 12 | 38 |
8 | Urawa Reds | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 32:24 | 8 | 37 |
9 | Cerezo Osaka | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 37:33 | 4 | 34 |
10 | Gamba Osaka | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 29:31 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Avispa Fukuoka | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21:23 | -2 | 31 |
12 | Okayama | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 20:22 | -2 | 30 |
13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:32 | -3 | 30 |
14 | FC Tokyo | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27:34 | -7 | 29 |
15 | Nagoya Grampus | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 28 |
16 | Verdy | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 15:24 | -9 | 28 |
17 | Shonan Bellmare | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 20:37 | -17 | 24 |
18 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23:32 | -9 | 21 |
19 | Yokohama FC | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 14:30 | -16 | 19 |
20 | Albirex Niigata | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 24:41 | -17 | 19 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League