Fagiano Okayama vs Albirex Niigata – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata
Result
2:1
18/05/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 17
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaQQ Sports
japanJapanDAZN Japan, NHK BS1

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.160.87
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
217
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
74% (290/394)84% (436/520)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.160.87
xG on target (xGOT)
1.670.82
Total shots
217
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
82
Blocked Shots
72
Shots inside the Box
164
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
3216
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1211
Passes
74% (290/394)84% (436/520)
Long passes
29% (14/48)36% (19/53)
Passes in final third
63% (97/153)65% (62/96)
Crosses
33% (8/24)31% (4/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.130.59
Throw-ins
2927
Fouls
1112
Tackles
61% (14/23)52% (12/23)
Duels won
6053
Clearances
2239
Interceptions
54
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
0.821.67
Goals prevented
-0.18-0.33

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 10', 1 - 0, Esaka A. , Tabei R. (A),
  • 15', 1 - 1, Hasegawa M. ,
  • 36', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 58', Okumura J. , Komi Y. ,
  • 58', Horigome Y. , Hashimoto K. ,
  • 58', Kasai K. , Takagi Y. ,
  • 58', 2 - 1, Ichimi K. (Pen),
  • 67', Ichimi K. , Lucao ,
  • 67', Kimura T. , Iwabuchi H. ,
  • 78', Danilo Gomes , Ota S. ,
  • 78', Hoshi Y. , Yamura K. ,
  • 81', Tabei R. , Takeuchi R. ,
  • 81', Esaka A. , Kamiya Yuta ,
  • 89', Suzuki Y. , Kudo K. ,
  • 90+2', Tatsuta Y. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fagiano Okayama
33.1%
Draw
32.3%
Albirex Niigata
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 31.9% 31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3% 32.3% 31.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)
  • Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
  • Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.81
    (2.59)
    2.88
    (2.99)
    2.7
    (3.04)
    7.3%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Niigata will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8%76.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.
    • Recent form of Okayama has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Niigata's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Niigata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Okayama has had a series of away games.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Niigata: Akiyama H. (Injury) Ota S. (Inactive)
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).
    Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
    Latest results of Albirex Niigata
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Vissel Kobe24144634:221246
    2Kashima Antlers24142836:241244
    3Kashiwa Reysol24128433:231044
    4Kyoto24126640:291142
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima24133829:181142
    6Machida24124834:25940
    7Kawasaki Frontale24108638:261238
    8Urawa Reds23107632:24837
    9Cerezo Osaka2497837:33434
    10Gamba Osaka241041029:31-234
    11Avispa Fukuoka2387821:23-231
    12Okayama24861020:22-230
    13Shimizu S-Pulse24861029:32-330
    14FC Tokyo24851127:34-729
    15Nagoya Grampus24771028:33-528
    16Verdy24771015:24-928
    17Shonan Bellmare24661220:37-1724
    18Yokohama F. Marinos24561323:32-921
    19Yokohama FC24541514:30-1619
    20Albirex Niigata24471324:41-1719

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League