Result
2:1
18/05/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | QQ Sports |
 Japan | DAZN Japan, NHK BS1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 0.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (290/394) | 84% (436/520) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 0.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 16 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (290/394) | 84% (436/520) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (14/48) | 36% (19/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (97/153) | 65% (62/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (8/24) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.59 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 61% (14/23) | 52% (12/23) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.67 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | -0.33 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 1 - 0, Esaka A. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
- 15', 1 - 1, Hasegawa M. ⚽,
- 36', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 58', Okumura J. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
- 58', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
- 58', Kasai K. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,
- 58', 2 - 1, Ichimi K. (Pen),
- 67', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
- 67', Kimura T. ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
- 78', Danilo Gomes ↓, Ota S. ↑,
- 78', Hoshi Y. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
- 81', Tabei R. ↓, Takeuchi R. ↑,
- 81', Esaka A. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
- 89', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
- 90+2', Tatsuta Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fagiano Okayama
33.1% | Draw
32.3% | Albirex Niigata
34.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.81 ↑
(2.59) |
2.88 ↓
(2.99) |
2.7 ↓
(3.04) |
7.3%
(4.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Niigata will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.
- Recent form of Okayama has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Niigata's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Niigata may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Okayama has had a series of away games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Niigata: Akiyama H.
(Injury)
Ota S.
(Inactive)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Albirex Niigata?
Fagiano Okayama has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Fagiano Okayama?
Albirex Niigata has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata were as follows:
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Latest results of Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 25 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 37:24 | 13 | 47 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 35:23 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 34:24 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Kyoto | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 42:30 | 12 | 45 |
| 5 | Machida | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 43 |
| 6 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 29:18 | 11 | 43 |
| 7 | Urawa Reds | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 34:25 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 40:31 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Cerezo Osaka | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 40:34 | 6 | 37 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 26:25 | 1 | 35 |
| 11 | Gamba Osaka | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 29:34 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 | Okayama | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 23:22 | 1 | 33 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29:32 | -3 | 31 |
| 14 | Verdy | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 16:24 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Tokyo | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27:35 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 29:35 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Shonan Bellmare | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 20:39 | -19 | 24 |
| 18 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 23:33 | -10 | 21 |
| 19 | Yokohama FC | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 15:32 | -17 | 19 |
| 20 | Albirex Niigata | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 25:44 | -19 | 19 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League
