Result
1:2 penalties
29/04/2026 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.91 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (492/577) | 74% (232/312) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.91 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.49 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (492/577) | 74% (232/312) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (31/73) | 41% (22/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (107/151) | 70% (71/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (3/23) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 56% (10/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Izumi R. ↓, Koda H. ↑,
- 46', Browne N. ↓, Yamane T. ↑,
- 46', Werik Popo ↓, Lucao ↑,
- 59', Kimura T. ↓, Nishikawa J. ↑,
- 59', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
- 65', 1 - 0, Koda H. ⚽,
- 67', Matsumoto M. ↓, Leo Gaucho ↑,
- 70', Morishima T. ↓, Mikuni K. ↑,
- 80', Esaka A. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
- 80', Asano Y. ↓, Ono M. ↑,
- 83', Esaka A. 🟨,
- 85', Ogura K. 🟨,
- 89', 1 - 1, Tagami D. ⚽, Ogura K. (A),
- Penalties (4 - 5)
- 1, Inagaki S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Lucao (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Takamine T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Yamane T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Mikuni K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Tagami D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Kimura Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Kawano K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Sugiura S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Leo Gaucho (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Koda H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Ogura K. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Nagoya Grampus
51% | Draw
27.6% | Fagiano Okayama
21.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.86 ↓
(1.99) |
3.39 ↑
(3.27) |
4.36 ↑
(3.83) |
6.4%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 50.6% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 3.
- Nagoya has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nagoya will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T.
(Knee Injury)
Marcus Vinicius
(Broken Leg)
Mateus
(Injury)
Sato Y.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Okayama: Kudo K.
(Hamstring Injury)
Tabei R.
(Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1:0.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Fagiano Okayama?
Nagoya Grampus has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Nagoya Grampus?
Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
01.03.2026
Fagiano Okayama
-
Nagoya Grampus
2:1
13.09.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Nagoya Grampus
0:1
06.05.2025
Nagoya Grampus
-
Fagiano Okayama
0:0
Latest results of Nagoya Grampus
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 32 |
| 3 | Machida | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Verdy | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:16 | 24 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20:25 | 20 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Mito | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:28 | 18 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21:26 | 16 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13:26 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:18 | 26 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28:21 | 25 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 6 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Okayama | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:27 | 18 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
