Result
5:1
11/04/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 1.34 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (231/334) | 63% (149/236) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.40 | 1.34 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.33 | 0.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (231/334) | 63% (149/236) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 24% (15/63) | 33% (19/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (87/127) | 58% (50/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (7/22) | 27% (8/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.82 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 29 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 42% (5/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.96 | 3.33 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.04 | -1.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 12', 1 - 0, Souza Alex ⚽, Honda F. (A),
- 13', Souza Alex 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 1, Kimura T. ⚽, Esaka A. (A),
- 45+5', 2 - 1, Sato K. ⚽, Joao Pedro (A),
- 45+8', 3 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 56', 4 - 1, Suzuki Y. ⚽, Honda F. (A),
- 61', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Ogura K. ↑,
- 61', Matsumoto M. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
- 64', Yoon S. 🟨,
- 70', Honda F. ↓, Okugawa M. ↑,
- 71', Kimura T. ↓, Browne N. ↑,
- 71', Lucao ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
- 77', Yoon S. ↓, Asada S. ↑,
- 77', Hirato T. ↓, Nakano R. ↑,
- 77', Esaka A. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
- 85', Asada S. 🟨,
- 87', Marco Tulio ↓, David ↑,
- 88', Souza Alex ↓, Yonemoto T. ↑,
- 90+1', 5 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Henrique Trevisan (A),
Chances of winning
Kyoto Sanga
43.9% | Draw
28.6% | Fagiano Okayama
27.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kyoto Sanga's form might have worsened.Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+7.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kyoto Sanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.13 ↑
(1.88) |
3.31 ↓
(3.8) |
3.4 ↓
(3.8) |
6.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kyoto: 29% – 96%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kyoto (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Kyoto might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Okayama: Tabei R.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Kyoto: Rafael Elias
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I.
(Injury)
Kudo K.
(Injury)
Lucao
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Fagiano Okayama?
Kyoto Sanga has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Kyoto Sanga?
Fagiano Okayama has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
07.03.2026
Fagiano Okayama
-
Kyoto Sanga
1:0
30.08.2025
Kyoto Sanga
-
Fagiano Okayama
5:0
15.02.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Kyoto Sanga
2:0
Latest results of Kyoto Sanga
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:7 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19:10 | 23 |
| 3 | Machida | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:16 | 22 |
| 4 | Verdy | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 7 | Mito | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15:14 | 11 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:18 | 9 |
| 10 | Chiba | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Kyoto | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17:12 | 17 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 8 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | 12 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:17 | 11 |
| 10 | Okayama | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:20 | 11 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
