Result
1:3
06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 15
- Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 2.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (443/509) | 78% (266/340) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 2.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 2.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (443/509) | 78% (266/340) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 66% (35/53) | 28% (14/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (114/151) | 50% (39/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (8/32) | 37% (7/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 88% (14/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.46 | 1.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.54 | 0.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Weverton ⚽,
- 12', 1 - 1, Carlao ⚽, Thayllon (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 53', Netinho 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 2, Dodo (Pen),
- 67', Bruno Xavier ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
- 68', Thayllon ↓, Alencar ↑,
- 68', Thiago Lopes ↓, Wesley Pomba ↑,
- 68', Ricardinho ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
- 69', Weverton 🟨,
- 74', Wesley Pomba ↓, Kevin ↑,
- 78', Dodo ↓, Ralf ↑,
- 78', Guilherme Parede ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
- 83', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
- 86', Igor Henrique ↓, Ruan Ribeiro ↑,
- 86', Andre Luis ↓, Paje G. ↑,
- 89', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
- 90+2', Edson Lucas ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
- 90+9', 1 - 3, Junior Todinho ⚽,
Chances of winning
Ferroviária
40.9% | Draw
32.9% | Vila Nova
26.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Ferroviária - Vila Nova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.29 ↑
(2.23) |
2.84 ↓
(2.97) |
3.55 ↑
(3.48) |
7.1%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Vila Nova?
Users Predictions:
Ferroviária will win
(14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ferroviária will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).
- In recent matches, Ferroviária has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Vila Nova has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Vila Nova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Ferroviária will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson
(Inactive)
Erik Nascimento
(Inactive)
Juninho
(Yellow Cards)
Ronaldo Alves
(Yellow Cards)
Ze Mario
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Vila Nova: Arilson
(Inactive)
Emerson Urso
(Inactive)
Walisson Maia
(Inactive)
Willian Formiga
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel
(Inactive)
Caua A.
(Inactive)
Gustavo Jundi
(Inactive)
Vitor Barreto
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Vila Nova: Marcondes
(Knee Injury)
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Ferroviária won against Vila Nova?
Ferroviária has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vila Nova won against Ferroviária?
Vila Nova has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ferroviária - Vila Nova were as follows:
Latest results of Ferroviária
Latest results of Vila Nova
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coritiba | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 34:21 | 13 | 56 |
| 2 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 42:29 | 13 | 53 |
| 3 | Novorizontino | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 36:27 | 9 | 53 |
| 4 | Goias | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36:29 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | Chapecoense-SC | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 44:31 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Remo | 32 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 39:31 | 8 | 51 |
| 7 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 45:42 | 3 | 49 |
| 8 | Cuiaba | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 38:35 | 3 | 49 |
| 9 | CRB | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 38:33 | 5 | 47 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 35:33 | 2 | 45 |
| 11 | Avai | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 40:34 | 6 | 44 |
| 12 | Vila Nova FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Operario-PR | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | -4 | 39 |
| 14 | America MG | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 34:39 | -5 | 37 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 | Ferroviaria | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 |
| 17 | Volta Redonda | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 22:34 | -12 | 34 |
| 18 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 27:47 | -20 | 33 |
| 19 | Amazonas | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 31 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
