Ferroviária vs Vila Nova – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Ferroviária - Vila Nova
Result
1:3
06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 15
  • Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.45
Ball Possession
60%40%
Total shots
1615
Shots on target
39
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
78
Passes
87% (443/509)78% (266/340)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.392.45
xG on target (xGOT)
1.002.46
Total shots
1615
Shots on target
39
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
910
Shots outside the Box
75
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
14
Corner Kicks
78
Touches in opposition box
2521
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
87% (443/509)78% (266/340)
Long passes
66% (35/53)28% (14/50)
Passes in final third
75% (114/151)50% (39/78)
Crosses
25% (8/32)37% (7/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.830.53
Throw-ins
2614
Fouls
1413
Tackles
53% (8/15)88% (14/16)
Duels won
4150
Clearances
2632
Interceptions
138
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
2.461.00
Goals prevented
-0.540.27

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 3', 0 - 1, Weverton ,
  • 12', 1 - 1, Carlao , Thayllon (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 53', Netinho 🟨,
  • 61', 1 - 2, Dodo (Pen),
  • 67', Bruno Xavier , Junior Todinho ,
  • 68', Thayllon , Alencar ,
  • 68', Thiago Lopes , Wesley Pomba ,
  • 68', Ricardinho , Ronaldo ,
  • 69', Weverton 🟨,
  • 74', Wesley Pomba , Kevin ,
  • 78', Dodo , Ralf ,
  • 78', Guilherme Parede , Vinicius Paiva ,
  • 83', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
  • 86', Igor Henrique , Ruan Ribeiro ,
  • 86', Andre Luis , Paje G. ,
  • 89', Gustavo Medina 🟨,
  • 90+2', Edson Lucas , Igor Bolt ,
  • 90+9', 1 - 3, Junior Todinho ,

Chances of winning


Ferroviária
40.9%
Draw
32.9%
Vila Nova
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.8% 31.4% 26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5% 30.2% 25.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
  • Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
  • Ferroviária - Vila Nova Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.29
    (2.23)
    2.84
    (2.97)
    3.55
    (3.48)
    7.1%
    (7.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Ferroviária - Vila Nova?
  • Users Predictions: Ferroviária will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 71.29%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ferroviária will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).
    • In recent matches, Ferroviária has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Vila Nova has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Vila Nova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Ferroviária will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Ferroviária: Denilson (Inactive) Erik Nascimento (Inactive) Juninho (Yellow Cards) Ronaldo Alves (Yellow Cards) Ze Mario (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Vila Nova: Arilson (Inactive) Emerson Urso (Inactive) Walisson Maia (Inactive) Willian Formiga (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Ferroviária: Cassio Gabriel (Inactive) Caua A. (Inactive) Gustavo Jundi (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Vila Nova: Marcondes (Knee Injury)
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Ferroviária
    Latest results of Vila Nova
    22.06.2025 Amazonas - Vila Nova 2:1
    09.06.2025 Criciúma - Vila Nova 1:0
    26.05.2025 Cuiabá - Vila Nova 1:0
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias17113323:131036
    2Coritiba17103418:11733
    3Novorizontino1787222:121031
    4Chapecoense-SC1782721:16526
    5Remo1768319:15426
    6Cuiaba1774619:20-125
    7Avai1767420:18225
    8Vila Nova FC1773715:16-124
    9Athletico-PR1772821:23-223
    10Criciuma1765620:17323
    11CRB1764716:16022
    12Atletico GO1757518:17122
    13Athletic Club17701020:24-421
    14America MG1762917:21-420
    15Operario-PR1754818:20-219
    16Paysandu PA1746716:19-318
    17Ferroviaria1746717:21-418
    18Volta Redonda1746710:16-618
    19Botafogo SP1746712:20-818
    20Amazonas1745816:23-717

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