São Paulo vs Fluminense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A São Paulo - Fluminense
Result
3:1
27/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 17
  • Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
israelIsraelSport 2
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 2
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.250.30
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
157
Shots on target
91
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
84% (346/414)89% (417/471)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
2.250.30
xG on target (xGOT)
3.530.57
Total shots
157
Shots on target
91
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
33
Shots inside the Box
93
Shots outside the Box
64
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
189
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
1113
Passes
84% (346/414)89% (417/471)
Long passes
28% (9/32)47% (18/38)
Passes in final third
63% (52/83)75% (83/110)
Crosses
31% (4/13)15% (2/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.290.39
Throw-ins
2024
Fouls
1311
Tackles
76% (19/25)80% (8/10)
Duels won
5739
Clearances
2325
Interceptions
116
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
06
xGOT faced
0.573.53
Goals prevented
-0.430.53

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 24', 1 - 0, Robert Arboleda , Luciano (A),
  • 40', Martinelli 🟨,
  • 42', Ferreira (Pen),
  • 45+2', Lima 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Canobbio A. , Serna K. ,
  • 46', Martinelli , Hercules ,
  • 46', John Kennedy , Soteldo Y. ,
  • 46', Manoel , Samuel Xavier ,
  • 54', Ferreira 🟨,
  • 56', Bernal F. 🟨,
  • 59', 2 - 0, Ferreira , Marcos Antonio (A),
  • 63', Diaz E. 🟨,
  • 69', Ferreira , Andre Silva ,
  • 69', Diaz E. , Wendell ,
  • 69', Alisson , Rodriguinho ,
  • 71', Lima , PH Ganso ,
  • 75', Luciano , Tapia G. ,
  • 77', 2 - 1, Samuel Xavier ,
  • 86', Franco A. , Sabino ,
  • 86', Franco A. 🟨,
  • 87', Freytes J. 🟨,
  • 90+1', 3 - 1, Tapia G. , Ferraresi N. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


São Paulo
42%
Draw
31.3%
Fluminense
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42% 29.3% 28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4% 29% 28.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • The chances for São Paulo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
  • São Paulo - Fluminense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.26
    (2.25)
    3.02
    (3.22)
    3.55
    (3.29)
    5.5%
    (5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for São Paulo - Fluminense?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
    • São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Fluminense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Fluminense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.
    • São Paulo might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Lucca Marques (Muscle Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Ignacio (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Fluminense were as follows:
    01.09.2024 Fluminense - São Paulo 2:0
    13.05.2024 São Paulo - Fluminense 2:1
    22.11.2023 Fluminense - São Paulo 1:0
    01.07.2023 São Paulo - Fluminense 1:0
    05.11.2022 Fluminense - São Paulo 3:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    24.07.2025 Juventude - São Paulo 0:1
    19.07.2025 São Paulo - Corinthians 2:0
    12.07.2025 Flamengo - São Paulo 2:0
    12.06.2025 São Paulo - Vasco da Gama 1:3
    Latest results of Fluminense
    23.07.2025 Fluminense - Palmeiras 1:2
    20.07.2025 Flamengo - Fluminense 1:0
    17.07.2025 Fluminense - Cruzeiro 0:2
    13.07.2025 Mirassol - Fluminense Postponed
    08.07.2025 Fluminense - Chelsea 0:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ16113230:62436
    2Cruzeiro17104328:111734
    3Palmeiras15102319:12732
    4Bahia1584320:13728
    5Bragantino1783620:20027
    6Botafogo RJ1575318:81026
    7Mirassol1567224:141025
    8Sao Paulo1757518:19-122
    9Ceara1663716:16021
    10Internacional1656517:20-321
    11Corinthians1756616:20-421
    12Fluminense1562717:20-320
    13Atletico-MG1555516:16020
    14Gremio1655616:22-620
    15Vitoria1738614:18-417
    16Vasco1543816:20-415
    17Santos1643915:21-615
    18Fortaleza1635817:23-614
    19Juventude15321010:32-2211
    20Sport Recife1505109:25-165

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet