Fluminense vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A
Result
6:0
27/11/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 36
  • Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaFlow Eventos
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaWin play, Win Sports
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorCanal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaFlow Sports 1 Caribbean
paraguayParaguayFlow Eventos
russiaRussiaMatch! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
uruguayUruguayFlow
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.550.08
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
165
Shots on target
111
Big Chances
90
Corner Kicks
34
Passes
90% (499/556)84% (354/421)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
3.550.08
xG on target (xGOT)
5.250.04
Total shots
165
Shots on target
111
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
131
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
90
Corner Kicks
34
Touches in opposition box
3512
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
118
Passes
90% (499/556)84% (354/421)
Long passes
55% (26/47)50% (20/40)
Passes in final third
79% (101/128)72% (77/107)
Crosses
15% (2/13)17% (2/12)
Expected assists (xA)
1.590.26
Throw-ins
1314
Fouls
811
Tackles
70% (7/10)61% (11/18)
Duels won
4135
Clearances
1821
Interceptions
613
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.045.25
Goals prevented
0.04-0.75

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Canobbio A. (Pen),
  • 16', 2 - 0, Martinelli ⚽,
  • 23', Hercules ↓, Nonato ↑,
  • 24', 3 - 0, Nonato ⚽, Serna K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 0)
  • 46', Tapia G. ↓, Toloi R. ↑,
  • 46', Pablo Maia ↓, Alisson ↑,
  • 46', Maik ↓, Bosshardt N. ↑,
  • 61', Everaldo ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
  • 62', Thiago Silva ↓, Ignacio ↑,
  • 69', 4 - 0, John Kennedy ⚽, Serna K. (A),
  • 71', Bobadilla D. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
  • 72', Canobbio A. 🟨,
  • 77', 5 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Nonato (A),
  • 78', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
  • 78', Canobbio A. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
  • 79', Lucca Marques ↓, Paulinho ↑,
  • 87', 6 - 0, Serna K. ⚽, Soteldo Y. (A),
  • 90', Franco A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
58.8%		Draw
26.1%		São Paulo
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.7% 29.1% 21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9% 29% 21.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-8.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Fluminense - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.63 ↓
    (1.93)    		 3.64 ↑
    (3.29)    		 6.27 ↑
    (4.53)    		 4.9%
    (4.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Fluminense - São Paulo?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Fluminense (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Fluminense (1.69) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH 0 - Fluminense (1.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Fluminense (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Fluminense (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Fluminense (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Fluminense (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Fluminense (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 19 high ROI users predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 17 - 89.5%). São Paulo (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ))
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 2.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Fluminense is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Acosta L. (Injury) Manoel (Knee Injury) Thiago Silva (Inactive)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Knee Injury) Diaz E. (Hip Injury) Dinenno J. (Knee Injury) Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luan Silva (Muscle Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Oscar (Heart Problems) Rafael (Yellow Cards) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Rodriguinho (Knee Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Sabino (Yellow Cards) Toloi R. (Hip Injury) Wendell (Heel Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Cano G. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in São Paulo: Ferreira (Injury) Pablo Maia (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - São Paulo were as follows:
    27.07.2025 São Paulo - Fluminense 3:1
    01.09.2024 Fluminense - São Paulo 2:0
    13.05.2024 São Paulo - Fluminense 2:1
    22.11.2023 Fluminense - São Paulo 1:0
    01.07.2023 São Paulo - Fluminense 1:0
    Latest results of Fluminense
    22.11.2025 Palmeiras - Fluminense 0:0 ✺
    19.11.2025 Fluminense - Flamengo 2:1 ✺
    09.11.2025 Cruzeiro - Fluminense 0:0 ✺
    06.11.2025 Fluminense - Mirassol 1:0 ✺
    02.11.2025 Ceará - Fluminense 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of São Paulo
    23.11.2025 São Paulo - Juventude 2:1 ✺
    20.11.2025 Corinthians - São Paulo 3:1 ✺
    08.11.2025 São Paulo - Red Bull Bragantino 0:1 ✺
    05.11.2025 São Paulo - Flamengo 2:2 ✺
    02.11.2025 Vasco da Gama - São Paulo 0:2 ✺
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2026
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras431012:5710
    2Sao Paulo43106:2410
    3Corinthians42115:327
    4Bahia32104:227
    5Fluminense42115:417
    6Athletico-PR42114:317
    7Bragantino42113:307
    8Gremio42028:806
    9Chapecoense-SC31208:625
    10Mirassol31206:515
    11Flamengo RJ31114:404
    12Coritiba41125:6-14
    13Santos41126:8-24
    14Botafogo RJ31027:613
    15Vitoria31024:7-33
    16Remo40316:8-23
    17Atletico-MG40226:8-22
    18Internacional40223:6-32
    19Cruzeiro40224:9-52
    20Vasco40133:6-31

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

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