Result
3:1
27/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 17
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.30 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (346/414) | 89% (417/471) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.53 | 0.57 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (346/414) | 89% (417/471) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 28% (9/32) | 47% (18/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (52/83) | 75% (83/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 15% (2/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.39 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (19/25) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.57 | 3.53 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.43 | 0.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 24', 1 - 0, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 40', Martinelli 🟨,
- 42', Ferreira (Pen),
- 45+2', Lima 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
- 46', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
- 46', John Kennedy ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
- 46', Manoel ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
- 54', Ferreira 🟨,
- 56', Bernal F. 🟨,
- 59', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
- 63', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 69', Ferreira ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 69', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 69', Alisson ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 71', Lima ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 75', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 77', 2 - 1, Samuel Xavier ⚽,
- 86', Franco A. ↓, Sabino ↑,
- 86', Franco A. 🟨,
- 87', Freytes J. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Tapia G. ⚽, Ferraresi N. (A),
Chances of winning
São Paulo
42% | Draw
31.3% | Fluminense
26.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for São Paulo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
São Paulo - Fluminense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.26 ↑
(2.25) |
3.02 ↓
(3.22) |
3.55 ↑
(3.29) |
5.5%
(5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Fluminense?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Fluminense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Fluminense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.
- São Paulo might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Lucca Marques
(Muscle Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Fluminense: Ignacio
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Fluminense?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against São Paulo?
Fluminense has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Fluminense were as follows:
01.09.2024
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
2:0
13.05.2024
São Paulo
-
Fluminense
2:1
22.11.2023
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
1:0
01.07.2023
São Paulo
-
Fluminense
1:0
05.11.2022
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
3:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
