Result
3:1
27/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 17
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Austria | DAZN |
Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
Israel | Sport 2 |
Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
Turkey | Spor Smart 2 |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.25 | 0.30 |
Ball Possession |
---|
47% | 53% |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
9 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
4 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 3 |
Passes |
---|
84% (346/414) | 89% (417/471) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 4 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.25 | 0.30 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
3.53 | 0.57 |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
9 | 1 |
Shots off target |
---|
3 | 3 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
3 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
9 | 3 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
2 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
4 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
7 | 3 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
18 | 9 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
3 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 13 |
Passes |
---|
84% (346/414) | 89% (417/471) |
Long passes |
---|
28% (9/32) | 47% (18/38) |
Passes in final third |
---|
63% (52/83) | 75% (83/110) |
Crosses |
---|
31% (4/13) | 15% (2/13) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.29 | 0.39 |
Throw-ins |
---|
20 | 24 |
Fouls |
---|
13 | 11 |
Tackles |
---|
76% (19/25) | 80% (8/10) |
Duels won |
---|
57 | 39 |
Clearances |
---|
23 | 25 |
Interceptions |
---|
11 | 6 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
0 | 6 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.57 | 3.53 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.43 | 0.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 24', 1 - 0, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Luciano (A),
- 40', Martinelli 🟨,
- 42', Ferreira (Pen),
- 45+2', Lima 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
- 46', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
- 46', John Kennedy ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
- 46', Manoel ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
- 54', Ferreira 🟨,
- 56', Bernal F. 🟨,
- 59', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
- 63', Diaz E. 🟨,
- 69', Ferreira ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 69', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
- 69', Alisson ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
- 71', Lima ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
- 75', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
- 77', 2 - 1, Samuel Xavier ⚽,
- 86', Franco A. ↓, Sabino ↑,
- 86', Franco A. 🟨,
- 87', Freytes J. 🟨,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Tapia G. ⚽, Ferraresi N. (A),
Chances of winning
São Paulo 42% | Draw 31.3% | Fluminense 26.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for São Paulo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
São Paulo - Fluminense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.26 ↑ (2.25) |
3.02 ↓ (3.22) |
3.55 ↑ (3.29) |
5.5% (5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Fluminense?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): São Paulo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.
- São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Fluminense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Fluminense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.
- São Paulo might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Knee Injury)
Lucca Marques
(Muscle Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Fluminense: Ignacio
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Fluminense?
São Paulo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fluminense won against São Paulo?
Fluminense has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Fluminense were as follows:
01.09.2024
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
2:0
13.05.2024
São Paulo
-
Fluminense
2:1
22.11.2023
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
1:0
01.07.2023
São Paulo
-
Fluminense
1:0
05.11.2022
Fluminense
-
São Paulo
3:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Fluminense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
5 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
6 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
9 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 20 |
13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
14 | Gremio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16:22 | -6 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Vasco | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet