Result
0:1
29/11/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 12
- Referee: Pereira C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (390/463) | 72% (194/268) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.08 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (390/463) | 72% (194/268) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (25/44) | 33% (22/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (104/150) | 63% (29/46) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (7/43) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 0.23 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 5 | 50 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 29', Caseres F. 🟨,
- 35', 0 - 1, Pedro Maranhao (Pen),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 59', Ouattara M. ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
- 67', Fernandes J. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
- 71', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 71', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
- 77', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
- 77', Caseres F. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
- 81', Fernandez M. 🟨,
- 82', Rodriguez J. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 82', Bebeto ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
- 89', Moreira A. ↓, Bermejo ↑,
- 89', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gil Vicente
56.8% | Draw
25.8% | Tondela
17.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Gil Vicente - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.68 ↑
(1.62) |
3.71 ↓
(3.75) |
5.4 ↓
(5.63) |
5.2%
(6.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gil Vicente - Tondela?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Gil Vicente (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Gil Vicente will win
(18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Gil Vicente will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 3.
- Gil Vicente is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Tondela is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Tondela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Inactive)
Carlos Eduardo
(Inactive)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Tondela?
Gil Vicente has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Gil Vicente?
Tondela has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gil Vicente - Tondela were as follows:
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
