Result
2:2
13/04/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 29
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 1.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (326/414) | 82% (304/371) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 1.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 1.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (326/414) | 82% (304/371) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (14/45) | 55% (29/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (75/114) | 73% (84/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (2/10) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (12/20) | 50% (4/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.97 | 2.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | 0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 7', Marques C. 🟨,
- 15', 1 - 0, Rony Lopes ⚽,
- 29', 1 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Ouattara M. 🟨,
- 57', Murilo de Souza 🟨,
- 60', Ouattara M. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
- 60', Felix H. ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
- 66', Canizares L. 🟨,
- 68', Pedro Maranhao ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
- 74', Rony Lopes ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
- 74', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
- 75', Bebeto ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 79', Silva J. 🟨,
- 85', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
- 85', Murilo de Souza ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
- 90', 1 - 2, Carlos Eduardo ⚽, Fernandes J. (A),
- 90+4', Bebeto 🟨,
- 90+8', Hodge J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+8', 2 - 2, Hodge J. ⚽,
- 90+9', Conceicao R. 🟨,
- 90+9', Buatu J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tondela
22.1% | Draw
28.6% | Gil Vicente
49.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Tondela - Gil Vicente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.32 ↑
(4.19) |
3.3 ↓
(3.35) |
1.94 ↑
(1.87) |
5%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Tondela - Gil Vicente?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 35.2% – 92%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.5 - Tondela (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Gil Vicente (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Tondela: Cicero
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Injury)
Hernandez H.
(Muscle Injury)
Ze Carlos
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Elimbi M.
(Injury)
Mutombo J.
(Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Gil Vicente?
Tondela has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Tondela?
Gil Vicente has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Gil Vicente were as follows:
29.11.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Tondela
0:1
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
