Athletico Paranaense vs Grêmio Novorizontino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino
Result
2:1
30/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 24
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.420.92
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
2012
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
80% (313/389)77% (260/338)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.420.92
xG on target (xGOT)
0.821.10
Total shots
2012
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
93
Shots inside the Box
104
Shots outside the Box
108
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
209
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
80% (313/389)77% (260/338)
Long passes
41% (19/46)48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
70% (73/105)53% (41/78)
Crosses
25% (3/12)14% (2/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.380.57
Throw-ins
2418
Fouls
1311
Tackles
64% (9/14)53% (8/15)
Duels won
4243
Clearances
1615
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
1.100.82
Goals prevented
0.10-0.18

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 29', 1 - 0, Airton (Own goal),
  • 36', 1 - 1, Waguininho , Rodrigo Soares (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Luiz Fernando , Madson ,
  • 46', Mendoza S. , Dudu Kogitzki ,
  • 49', 2 - 1, Zapelli B. ,
  • 52', Dantas 🟨,
  • 65', Bruno Jose , Pablo Dyego ,
  • 65', Caio Dantas , Nathan Fogaca ,
  • 67', Arthur Dias , Teran C. ,
  • 77', Romulo , Leo Tocantins ,
  • 77', Waguininho , Matheus Frizzo ,
  • 78', Leo Derik , Felipinho ,
  • 82', Mayk , Lucca ,
  • 83', Leozinho , Julimar ,

Chances of winning


Athletico Paranaense
50%
Draw
29.9%
Grêmio Novorizontino
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.3% 28.6% 18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5% 28% 17.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.75)
    3.11
    (3.27)
    4.57
    (5.15)
    7.3%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 29%96%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5).
    • Athletico PR has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Novorizontino is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Athletico PR: Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Kaua Moraes (Inactive) Leo (Inactive) Raul (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Fabio Matheus (Red Card) Marlon (Inactive) Rafael Donato (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Pablo Dyego (Inactive)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletico PR won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:
    24.04.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense 2:1
    Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
    Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias27146733:25848
    2Coritiba27138628:171147
    3Criciuma27137734:211346
    4Novorizontino271110630:25543
    5Athletico-PR27126939:36342
    6Chapecoense-SC271251038:281041
    7Cuiaba27118832:30241
    8Remo27912628:24439
    9Atletico GO27911730:28238
    10CRB271141228:24437
    11Avai27910835:30537
    12Vila Nova FC271061126:28-236
    13Operario-PR2799929:26336
    14Athletic Club27951329:35-632
    15Ferroviaria27711930:34-432
    16America MG27861327:33-630
    17Botafogo SP27781222:39-1729
    18Amazonas27691227:39-1227
    19Volta Redonda27691216:28-1227
    20Paysandu PA274101321:32-1122

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