Athletico Paranaense vs Grêmio Novorizontino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino
Result
2:1
30/08/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 24
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.420.92
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
2012
Shots on target
73
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
45
Passes
80% (313/389)77% (260/338)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.420.92
xG on target (xGOT)
0.821.10
Total shots
2012
Shots on target
73
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
93
Shots inside the Box
104
Shots outside the Box
108
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
45
Touches in opposition box
209
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
80% (313/389)77% (260/338)
Long passes
41% (19/46)48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
70% (73/105)53% (41/78)
Crosses
25% (3/12)14% (2/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.380.57
Throw-ins
2418
Fouls
1311
Tackles
64% (9/14)53% (8/15)
Duels won
4243
Clearances
1615
Interceptions
1011
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
25
xGOT faced
1.100.82
Goals prevented
0.10-0.18

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 29', 1 - 0, Airton (Own goal),
  • 36', 1 - 1, Waguininho , Rodrigo Soares (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Luiz Fernando , Madson ,
  • 46', Mendoza S. , Dudu Kogitzki ,
  • 49', 2 - 1, Zapelli B. ,
  • 52', Dantas 🟨,
  • 65', Bruno Jose , Pablo Dyego ,
  • 65', Caio Dantas , Nathan Fogaca ,
  • 67', Arthur Dias , Teran C. ,
  • 77', Romulo , Leo Tocantins ,
  • 77', Waguininho , Matheus Frizzo ,
  • 78', Leo Derik , Felipinho ,
  • 82', Mayk , Lucca ,
  • 83', Leozinho , Julimar ,

Chances of winning


Athletico Paranaense
50%
Draw
29.9%
Grêmio Novorizontino
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.3% 28.6% 18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5% 28% 17.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)
  • Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
    (1.75)
    3.11
    (3.27)
    4.57
    (5.15)
    7.3%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Athletico PR will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 29%96%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5).
    • Athletico PR has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Novorizontino is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Athletico PR may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Athletico PR: Isaac (Inactive) Julimar (Knee Injury) Kaua Moraes (Inactive) Leo (Inactive) Raul (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Fabio Matheus (Red Card) Marlon (Inactive) Rafael Donato (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Pablo Dyego (Inactive)
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletico PR won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino were as follows:
    24.04.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense 2:1
    Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
    Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias24135631:23844
    2Coritiba24127524:16843
    3Chapecoense-SC24125736:221441
    4Criciuma24116731:211039
    5Novorizontino2499626:23336
    6Remo24811524:21335
    7CRB241041026:22434
    8Vila Nova FC241041024:24034
    9Cuiaba2497829:29034
    10Operario-PR2496926:23333
    11Athletico-PR2496931:33-233
    12Avai2389630:23733
    13Ferroviaria24710727:26131
    14Atletico GO24710726:26031
    15Athletic Club24841226:33-728
    16Botafogo SP24771020:33-1328
    17Amazonas24591025:34-924
    18Volta Redonda24581114:26-1223
    19America MG23641323:32-922
    20Paysandu PA24491120:29-921

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