Result
1:1
01/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 26
- Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Ecuador | El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 United-kingdom | Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.51 | 0.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (442/505) | 79% (229/290) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.51 | 0.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 4 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (442/505) | 79% (229/290) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 64% (16/25) | 50% (26/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (120/158) | 63% (26/41) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (10/34) | 25% (1/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.20 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (14/17) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.91 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.03 | 0.91 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 17', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
- 37', Arthur Melo 🟨,
- 43', Mano Menezes 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Joao Schmidt ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
- 51', Alysson 🟨,
- 56', 0 - 1, Edenilson ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
- 59', Edenilson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
- 59', Pavon C. ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
- 64', Arthur Melo ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
- 69', Barreal A. ↓, Rincon T. ↑,
- 71', Mayke ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
- 73', Escobar G. 🟨,
- 77', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
- 78', Alysson ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
- 79', Rollheiser B. ↓, Robson Junior ↑,
- 79', Andre Henrique ↓, Freitas dos Santos R. ↑,
- 82', Alex Santana 🟨,
- 89', Escobar G. ↓, Souza ↑,
- 89', 1 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Santos
54.7% | Draw
26.4% | Grêmio
18.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Santos's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-10.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santos that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Santos - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.75 ↓
(2.2) |
3.6 ↑
(3.2) |
5.06 ↑
(3.4) |
4.9%
(6.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Santos - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
Santos will win
(30 of 37 users predict this - 81.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.46% – 93.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Santos will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Santos is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Santos: Frias A.
(Inactive)
Gabriel Bontempo
(Ankle Injury)
Neymar
(Thigh Injury)
Victor Hugo
(Injury)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Carlos Vinicius
(Injury)
Cuellar G.
(Inactive)
Fabian Balbuena
(Ankle Injury)
Joao Lucas
(Muscle Injury)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Monsalve M.
(Shoulder Injury)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Grêmio: Freitas dos Santos R.
(Injury)
Marcos Rocha
(Injury)
Rodrigo Ely
(Knee Injury)
Willian
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:29. (average 1.2:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.3:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against Grêmio?
Santos has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Santos?
Grêmio has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Santos - Grêmio were as follows:
04.05.2025
Grêmio
-
Santos
1:0
20.08.2023
Santos
-
Grêmio
2:1
16.04.2023
Grêmio
-
Santos
1:0
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 51:23 | 28 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 27 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 53:13 | 40 | 58 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 41:21 | 20 | 53 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 47:30 | 17 | 49 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:26 | 11 | 43 |
| 6 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 35:32 | 3 | 43 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 35:33 | 2 | 41 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 31:30 | 1 | 38 |
| 9 | Vasco | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 44:41 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 34:43 | -9 | 36 |
| 11 | Gremio | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 30:33 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Corinthians | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31:35 | -4 | 36 |
| 13 | Ceara | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 27:25 | 2 | 35 |
| 14 | Atletico-MG | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 26:32 | -6 | 33 |
| 15 | Internacional | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33:41 | -8 | 32 |
| 16 | Santos | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 28:39 | -11 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 26:43 | -17 | 28 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 26:43 | -17 | 24 |
| 19 | Juventude | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 23 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 27 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 21:42 | -21 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
