Result
1:0
15/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5
- Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.56 | 0.14 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 70% | 30% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 35 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (510/579) | 70% (178/254) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.56 | 0.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 35 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 20 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 22 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 57 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (510/579) | 70% (178/254) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (15/29) | 36% (15/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (145/192) | 54% (34/63) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 34% (12/35) | 20% (1/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 0.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 94% (17/18) | 55% (17/31) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 49 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.42 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 35', Rodrigo Fernandez 🟨,
- 43', 1 - 0, Tarzia D. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Torales Richard ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
- 61', Barrientos N. ↓, Mendieta W. ↑,
- 61', Vargas G. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
- 65', Ibarrola W. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
- 66', Gimenez M. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 66', Montiel S. ↓, Millan L. ↑,
- 68', Manzur A. 🟨,
- 74', Cabral L. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
- 76', Maiz A. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
- 80', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
- 82', Angulo A. 🟨,
- 89', Tarzia D. ↓, Salle S. ↑,
- 90+5', Lopez M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Independiente
75.2% | Draw
16.8% | Guaraní Asuncion
8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-13.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4%)
Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.26 ↓
(1.41) |
5.65 ↑
(4.26) |
11.61 ↑
(8.52) |
5.9%
(6.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Guaraní will win (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 3.
- Recent performances by Independiente have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Guaraní is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Independiente is the clear favorite.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente won against Guaraní Asuncion?
Independiente has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guaraní Asuncion won against Independiente?
Guaraní Asuncion has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion were as follows:
22.04.2025
Guaraní Asuncion
-
Independiente
2:1
Latest results of Independiente
Latest results of Guaraní Asuncion
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | Gremio | 1 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bye | U. Catolica | |
| 3 | U. De Chile | Guarani | 1 : 2, 5 : 0 |
| 4 | Bye | Independiente | |
| 5 | Central Cordoba | Cerro Largo | 3 : 0, 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Bye | Lanus | |
| 7 | Bahia | America De Cali | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Bye | Fluminense | |
| 9 | Bolivar | Palestino | 3 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Cienciano | |
| 11 | Bucaramanga | Atletico-MG | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 12 | Bye | Godoy Cruz | |
| 13 | Ind. del Valle | Vasco | 1 : 1, 4 : 0 |
| 14 | Bye | Mushuc Runa | |
| 15 | SA Bulo Bulo | Once Caldas | 0 : 4, 0 : 3 |
| 16 | Bye | Huracan | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. Catolica | |
| 2 | U. De Chile | Independiente | |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | Lanus | |
| 4 | America De Cali | Fluminense | |
| 5 | Bolivar | Cienciano | |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | Godoy Cruz | |
| 7 | Ind. del Valle | Mushuc Runa | |
| 8 | Once Caldas | Huracan | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
