Independiente vs Guaraní Asuncion – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Sudamericana Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion
Result
1:0
15/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5
  • Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
brazilBrazilDisney+
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 3
indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
italyItalyComo TV
mexicoMexicoDisney+
paraguayParaguayTigo Sports
peruPeruDisney+
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.560.14
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
357
Shots on target
80
Big Chances
60
Corner Kicks
121
Passes
88% (510/579)70% (178/254)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
3.560.14
xG on target (xGOT)
1.420.00
Total shots
357
Shots on target
80
Shots off target
203
Blocked Shots
74
Shots inside the Box
222
Shots outside the Box
135
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
60
Corner Kicks
121
Touches in opposition box
5712
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
156
Passes
88% (510/579)70% (178/254)
Long passes
52% (15/29)36% (15/42)
Passes in final third
76% (145/192)54% (34/63)
Crosses
34% (12/35)20% (1/5)
Expected assists (xA)
1.530.52
Throw-ins
1417
Fouls
615
Tackles
94% (17/18)55% (17/31)
Duels won
5352
Clearances
1249
Interceptions
1212
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
07
xGOT faced
0.001.42
Goals prevented
0.000.42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 35', Rodrigo Fernandez 🟨,
  • 43', 1 - 0, Tarzia D. ,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Torales Richard , Fernandez D. ,
  • 61', Barrientos N. , Mendieta W. ,
  • 61', Vargas G. , Cespedes V. ,
  • 65', Ibarrola W. , Ramirez I. ,
  • 66', Gimenez M. , Hidalgo S. ,
  • 66', Montiel S. , Millan L. ,
  • 68', Manzur A. 🟨,
  • 74', Cabral L. , Galdames P. ,
  • 76', Maiz A. , Pinatares B. ,
  • 80', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
  • 82', Angulo A. 🟨,
  • 89', Tarzia D. , Salle S. ,
  • 90+5', Lopez M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Independiente
75.2%
Draw
16.8%
Guaraní Asuncion
8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
66.9% 22.1% 11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3% 20.3% 12%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.
  • Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-13.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4%)
  • Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.26
    (1.41)
    5.65
    (4.26)
    11.61
    (8.52)
    5.9%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Guaraní will win (votes: 1 - 20%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 3.
    • Recent performances by Independiente have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Guaraní is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Independiente is the clear favorite.
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion were as follows:
    22.04.2025 Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente 2:1
    Latest results of Independiente
    Latest results of Guaraní Asuncion
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Alianza LimaGremio1 : 1, 2 : 0
    2ByeU. Catolica
    3U. De ChileGuarani1 : 2, 5 : 0
    4ByeIndependiente
    5Central CordobaCerro Largo3 : 0, 0 : 0
    6ByeLanus
    7BahiaAmerica De Cali0 : 2, 0 : 0
    8ByeFluminense
    9BolivarPalestino3 : 0, 3 : 0
    10ByeCienciano
    11BucaramangaAtletico-MG1 : 1, 0 : 1
    12ByeGodoy Cruz
    13Ind. del ValleVasco1 : 1, 4 : 0
    14ByeMushuc Runa
    15SA Bulo BuloOnce Caldas0 : 4, 0 : 3
    16ByeHuracan

    1/8-finals
    1Alianza LimaU. Catolica
    2U. De ChileIndependiente
    3Central CordobaLanus
    4America De CaliFluminense
    5BolivarCienciano
    6Atletico-MGGodoy Cruz
    7Ind. del ValleMushuc Runa
    8Once CaldasHuracan

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2