Independiente vs Rosario Central – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional
Result
1:0
15/11/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 16
  • Referee: Zunino S. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaESPN Premium
brazilBrazilDisney+
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia
mexicoMexicoDisney+, Fanatiz
peruPeruDisney+
portugalPortugalSport TV6
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.640.99
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
159
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
42
Passes
77% (234/303)78% (332/426)
Yellow Cards
42
Expected Goals (xG)
0.640.99
xG on target (xGOT)
1.091.17
Total shots
159
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
61
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
82
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
42
Touches in opposition box
2118
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1410
Passes
77% (234/303)78% (332/426)
Long passes
39% (19/49)53% (31/58)
Passes in final third
58% (52/90)54% (53/98)
Crosses
29% (4/14)33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.770.75
Throw-ins
1819
Fouls
1014
Tackles
40% (4/10)60% (9/15)
Duels won
4056
Clearances
1529
Interceptions
1020
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
53
xGOT faced
1.171.09
Goals prevented
1.170.09

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 28', 1 - 0, Avalos G. ⚽, Zabala F. (A),
  • 45', Godoy L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Lopez S. ↓, Duarte G. ↑,
  • 46', Lo Celso F. ↓, O'Connor T. ↑,
  • 63', Campaz J. ↓, Cantizano G. ↑,
  • 64', Avalos G. ↓, Pussetto I. ↑,
  • 64', Cabral L. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
  • 64', Abaldo M. ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
  • 70', Godoy L. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
  • 74', Lomonaco K. 🟨,
  • 75', Lomonaco K. ↓, Freire N. ↑,
  • 75', Copetti E. ↓, Modica A. ↑,
  • 75', Navarro F. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
  • 83', Duarte G. 🟨,
  • 90', Zabala F. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Galdames P. 🟨,
  • 90+5', Komar J. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Independiente
45.4%		Draw
32.1%		Rosario Central
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.1% 32.2% 29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4% 33.3% 28.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente's performance.
  • Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rosario Central might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rosario Central could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Independiente - Rosario Central Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.13 ↓
    (2.45)    		 2.97 ↑
    (2.9)    		 4.18 ↑
    (3.15)    		 4.5%
    (7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for Independiente - Rosario Central?
  • Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Rosario will win (votes: 4 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 15.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 51.5% – 86.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Rosario (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Independiente (1.83) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 15 - 75%). Rosario (votes: 1 - 5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • Rosario is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 2.
    • Now, both teams are in good form.
    • Independiente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Independiente is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Independiente: Marcone I. (Inactive) Mazzantti W. (Inactive) Paredes F. (Inactive) Valenzuela M. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Rosario: Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Gutierrez K. (Knee Injury) Ibarra F. (Knee Injury) Quintana C. (Broken ankle)
    • There are questionable in Independiente: Valdez S. (Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.1:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.4:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente - Rosario Central were as follows:
    03.05.2025 Rosario Central - Independiente 1:0
    17.08.2024 Independiente - Rosario Central 1:0
    13.02.2024 Independiente - Rosario Central 1:0
    19.09.2023 Rosario Central - Independiente 1:1
    12.04.2023 Rosario Central - Independiente 1:0
    Latest results of Independiente
    10.11.2025 Deportivo Riestra - Independiente 0:1 ✺
    01.11.2025 Independiente - Atlético Tucumán 3:0 ✺
    24.10.2025 Independiente - Platense 3:0 ✺
    19.10.2025 San Martín de San Juan - Independiente 1:0 ✺
    12.10.2025 Independiente - Lanús 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of Rosario Central
    07.11.2025 Rosario Central - San Lorenzo 0:0 ✺
    31.10.2025 Instituto Córdoba - Rosario Central 1:3 ✺
    24.10.2025 Sarmiento de Junín - Rosario Central 0:1 ✺
    19.10.2025 Rosario Central - Platense 1:0 ✺
    11.10.2025 Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central 1:2 ✺
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Apertura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Estudiantes L.P. ✔ 1584317:71028
    2Boca Juniors ✔ 1576220:81227
    3Velez Sarsfield ✔ 1576217:11627
    4Talleres Cordoba ✔ 1574416:12425
    5Lanus ✔ 1565418:15323
    6San Lorenzo1557313:12122
    7Independiente1556422:19321
    8Union de Santa Fe1555523:19420
    9Defensa y Justicia1547417:19-219
    10Instituto1553715:17-218
    11Platense1537510:13-316
    12Gimnasia Mendoza1544712:21-916
    13Central Cordoba1544710:19-916
    14Newells Old Boys1535714:26-1214
    15Dep. Riestra151775:12-710


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. Rivadavia ✔ 15103228:141433
    2River Plate ✔ 1592422:111129
    3Argentinos Jrs ✔ 1585217:11629
    4Rosario Central ✔ 1583419:15427
    5Belgrano1565413:13023
    6Gimnasia L.P1572617:19-223
    7Huracan1556417:13421
    8Barracas Central1556414:13121
    9Racing Club1555517:15220
    10Tigre1547417:14319
    11Sarmiento Junin1561813:16-319
    12Banfield1543815:18-315
    13Atl. Tucuman1525814:20-611
    14Aldosivi150785:18-137
    15Estudiantes Rio Cuarto1512125:22-175

          Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Estudiantes L.P. is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Boca Juniors is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Velez Sarsfield is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Talleres Cordoba is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Lanus is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Ind. Rivadavia is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    River Plate is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Argentinos Jrs is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Rosario Central is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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