Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Aussie rules AFL
Result
92:56
16/08/2025 at 02:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • AFL - Round 23
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaAFL, Fox Footy
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 5
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+, TNT Sports 1

Match Stats

Goals
138
Behinds
148
Kicks
233208
Handballs
171165
Disposals
404373
Frees For
1418
Frees Against
1814
Clearances Completed
3639
Marks
10267
Tackles
5366
Hitouts
3244

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Quarter (33 - 6)
  • 00:49, Moore D. (G),
  • 03:50, Gunston J. (G),
  • 06:48, Gunston J. (G),
  • 09:24, Petty H. (G),
  • 11:23, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 13:47, Macdonald C. (Behind),
  • 14:41, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 25:08, Watson N. (G),
  • 28:17, Dear C. (G),
  • 2nd Quarter (16 - 9)
  • 00:51, (Behind Rushed),
  • 04:36, Petracca C. (Behind),
  • 06:28, Moore D. (G),
  • 09:49, Langford H. (Behind),
  • 13:48, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 14:20, Gunston J. (G),
  • 16:22, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 18:12, Oliver C. (G),
  • 20:01, Sharp H. (Behind),
  • 25:47, Chol M. (Behind),
  • 3rd Quarter (21 - 12)
  • 01:08, Chandler K. (G),
  • 03:38, Gunston J. (G),
  • 10:43, Macdonald C. (Behind),
  • 14:55, Breust L. (G),
  • 16:50, Petty H. (G),
  • 24:49, Gunston J. (G),
  • 29:22, Dear C. (Behind),
  • 30:15, Breust L. (Behind),
  • 4th Quarter (22 - 29)
  • 01:24, Van Rooyen J. (G),
  • 03:32, Gunston J. (G),
  • 05:36, Gunston J. (Behind),
  • 08:58, Jiath C. (Behind),
  • 11:30, Gunston J. (G),
  • 13:10, Macdonald C. (Behind),
  • 14:55, D'Ambrosio M. (Behind),
  • 18:20, (Behind Rushed),
  • 19:23, Sharp H. (Behind),
  • 19:57, Chandler K. (Behind),
  • 23:22, Macdonald C. (G),
  • 25:36, Gawn M. (Behind),
  • 26:07, Sharp H. (Behind),
  • 28:34, Langford H. (G),
  • 30:24, Van Rooyen J. (G),
  • 32:31, Pickett K. (G),

Chances of winning


Hawthorn Hawks
71.6%		Melbourne Demons
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
72.4% 27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.2% 24.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • Melbourne Demons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
    •

    Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.32 ↑
    (1.31)
    		3.28 ↓
    (3.42)    		 6.5%
    (5.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 164.50
    • The most likely Handicap: 1 (-20)
    What is the prediction for Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Hawthorn will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Melbourne will win (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +13.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +14.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +15.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +16.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +17.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +18.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +19.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +20.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +21.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Hawthorn (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +2.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +3.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +4.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +5.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +6.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +7.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +8.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +9.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +10.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +11.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +12.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -2.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -5.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -4.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -3.5 Points, OT - Hawthorn (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hawthorn Hawks will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Hawthorn (votes: 32 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 92:72.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 13).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 1.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Hawthorn is the team to beat.
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Hawthorn won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 1479:1444. (average 77.8:76).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hawthorn won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 776:803. (average 77.6:80.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons were as follows:
    09.05.2025 Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks 56:91
    23.03.2024 Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons 38:93
    20.08.2023 Melbourne Demons - Hawthorn Hawks 87:60
    13.05.2023 Hawthorn Hawks - Melbourne Demons 49:103
    Latest results of Hawthorn Hawks
    07.08.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - Collingwood Magpies 110:46
    01.08.2025 Adelaide Crows - Hawthorn Hawks 101:87
    24.07.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues 85:61
    18.07.2025 Hawthorn Hawks - Port Adelaide Power 87:49 ✺
    12.07.2025 Fremantle Dockers - Hawthorn Hawks 77:64 ✺
    Latest results of Melbourne Demons
    10.08.2025 Melbourne Demons - Western Bulldogs 99:105 ✺
    01.08.2025 Melbourne Demons - West Coast Eagles 139:56 ✺
    27.07.2025 St Kilda Saints - Melbourne Demons 96:90 ✺
    19.07.2025 Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons 78:70
    12.07.2025 Melbourne Demons - North Melbourne Kangaroos 119:83 ✺
    AFL Table
    2026
    PlWDL%%Pts
    1Sydney Swans5401581:331175.5316
    2Fremantle Dockers5401444:338131.3616
    3Hawthorn Hawks5401535:442121.0416
    4Western Bulldogs5401502:416120.6716
    5Gold Coast Suns5302541:410131.9512
    6Brisbane Lions5302490:426115.0212
    7North Melbourne5302450:425105.8812
    8Geelong Cats5302460:453101.5512
    9Melbourne Demons5302467:50492.6612
    10Port Adelaide Power5203447:404110.648
    11Adelaide Crows5203431:405106.428
    12GWS Giants5203434:46992.548
    13Collingwood Magpies5203348:37792.318
    14St Kilda Saints5203412:45291.158
    15West Coast Eagles5203386:60064.338
    16Carlton Blues5104393:51376.614
    17Essendon Bombers5104400:52676.054
    18Richmond Tigers5005297:52756.360

          Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )

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