Result
2:2
04/08/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Veikkausliiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Ruutu+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 1.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (326/398) | 73% (161/222) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 1.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 0.47 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 17 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 34 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (326/398) | 73% (161/222) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (30/58) | 44% (20/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (78/105) | 61% (69/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 12% (2/17) | 15% (5/34) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 1.26 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.79 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.16 | -1.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Heiskanen S. ⚽, Arko-Mensah E. (A),
- 12', 1 - 1, Hytonen T. ⚽, Jukkola O. (A),
- 27', Arko-Mensah E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Wallius K. ↓, Raymond A. ↑,
- 46', Tiitinen O. ↓, Kanga J. ↑,
- 52', Pettersson O. 🟨,
- 55', 2 - 1, Soderback M. ⚽, Kanga J. (A),
- 65', Jukkola O. ↓, Maenpaa A. ↑,
- 76', 2 - 2, Gnanou R. ⚽, Heiskanen S. (A),
- 81', Hytonen T. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
- 81', Soderback M. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
- 82', Arko-Mensah E. ↓, von Hellens L. ↑,
- 85', von Hellens L. 🟨,
- 87', Akinyemi A. 🟨,
- 87', Kanga J. 🟨,
- 88', Gnanou R. 🟨,
- 89', Europaeus G. 🟨,
- 89', Vayrynen T. ↓, Atarah A. ↑,
- 90+1', Ojala J. 🟨,
- 90+4', Gnanou R. ↓, Hafstad D. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ilves
66.7% | Draw
19% | Gnistan
14.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)Gnistan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Ilves - Gnistan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.45 ↑
(1.38) |
4.96 ↓
(5.23) |
6.71 ↓
(6.88) |
4.1%
(6.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Ilves - Gnistan?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 25 - 92.6%). Gnistan will win (votes: 1 - 3.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 82.7% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1.25 - Gnistan (votes: 5 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).
- Ilves is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group )
- Ilves is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Gnistan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Gnistan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Ilves is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Gnistan: Bashkirov E.
(Red Card)
Marcelo Costa
(Knee Injury)
Raitala J.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Gnistan: Eremenko R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 2.2:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 4:3).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Gnistan?
Ilves has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gnistan won against Ilves?
Gnistan has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Gnistan were as follows:
01.06.2025
Gnistan
-
Ilves
0:2
28.05.2025
Gnistan
-
Ilves
3:0
28.03.2025
Ilves
-
Gnistan
4:0
01.09.2024
Gnistan
-
Ilves
1:1
13.04.2024
Ilves
-
Gnistan
4:6
Latest results of Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Inter Turku ✔ | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 43:16 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | KuPS ✔ | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 33:20 | 13 | 37 |
| 3 | Ilves ✔ | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 40:26 | 14 | 36 |
| 4 | HJK ✔ | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 45:25 | 20 | 35 |
| 5 | SJK | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 37:28 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 30:35 | -5 | 24 |
| 7 | Jaro | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 22:28 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | VPS | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 21 |
| 9 | Mariehamn | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 19:38 | -19 | 18 |
| 10 | Haka | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 22:35 | -13 | 16 |
| 11 | AC Oulu | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25:39 | -14 | 15 |
| 12 | KTP ✔ | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 21:45 | -24 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Inter Turku is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group )
KuPS is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group )
Ilves is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group )
HJK is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group )
KTP is Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group )
