Result
3:2
23/09/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Veikkausliiga - Championship Group
- Referee: Kontinen J. (Fin)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 Finland | Ruutu+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 2.10 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (356/428) | 83% (349/418) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 2.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.69 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 34 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (356/428) | 83% (349/418) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (17/42) | 46% (22/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (165/207) | 79% (91/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 23% (7/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.70 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 76% (16/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.69 | 1.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.31 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 25', 1 - 0, Riski Ro. ⚽, Jukkola O. (A),
- 39', Europaeus G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 52', 1 - 1, Bashkirov E. ⚽, Vayrynen T. (A),
- 57', 2 - 1, Pettersson O. (Own goal),
- 58', Eremenko R. 🟨,
- 60', Soderback M. ↓, Kanga J. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 2, Pettersson O. ⚽,
- 70', Europaeus G. ↓, Ritari M. ↑,
- 70', Latonen J. ↓, Hafstad D. ↑,
- 72', Heiskanen S. 🟨,
- 73', 3 - 2, Jukkola O. ⚽, Kanga J. (A),
- 74', Stjopin M. ↓, Ulundu V. ↑,
- 74', Riski Ro. ↓, Hytonen T. ↑,
- 76', Pettersson O. ↓, Olufunwa O. ↑,
- 81', Arko-Mensah E. 🟨,
- 83', Kanga J. 🟨,
- 85', Jukkola O. 🟨,
- 85', Arko-Mensah E. ↓, Gunes O. ↑,
- 88', Gnanou R. 🟨,
- 90', Jukkola O. ↓, Wallius K. ↑,
- 90', Maenpaa A. ↓, Ala-Myllymaki L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ilves
66.7% | Draw
18.3% | Gnistan
15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Ilves - Gnistan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.41 ↓
(1.43) |
5.13 ↓
(5.2) |
6.49 ↑
(6.22) |
5.7%
(5.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Ilves - Gnistan?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Ilves will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ilves: 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ilves (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.
- Ilves is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Gnistan's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Recently, Gnistan has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Ilves is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Gnistan: Hanninen V.
(Inactive)
Marcelo Costa
(Knee Injury)
Woivalin H.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Ilves: Popovitch A.
(Injury)
- We predict that Ilves will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 2.2:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ilves won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:8. (average 3.3:2.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against Gnistan?
Ilves has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gnistan won against Ilves?
Gnistan has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ilves - Gnistan were as follows:
04.08.2025
Ilves
-
Gnistan
2:2
01.06.2025
Gnistan
-
Ilves
0:2
28.05.2025
Gnistan
-
Ilves
3:0
28.03.2025
Ilves
-
Gnistan
4:0
01.09.2024
Gnistan
-
Ilves
1:1
Latest results of Gnistan
Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | KuPS | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 51:29 | 22 | 53 |
| 2 | Ilves | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 57:35 | 22 | 52 |
| 3 | Inter Turku | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 49:25 | 24 | 50 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 54:39 | 15 | 48 |
| 5 | HJK | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 66:37 | 29 | 47 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
