Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Veikkausliiga - Championship Group
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Ruutu+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 2.03 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 25% | 75% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (151/222) | 90% (616/685) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 2.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 2.57 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 52 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (151/222) | 90% (616/685) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (17/54) | 51% (21/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 44% (25/57) | 86% (271/315) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 18% (5/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.40 | 1.94 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (17/22) | 65% (11/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.57 | 0.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.57 | -0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 15', 1 - 0, Popovitch A. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 53', Arsalo M. 🟨,
- 58', Obileye A. ↓, Gasc V. R. ↑,
- 63', Riski Ro. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
- 67', Paananen K. ↓, Vargas A. ↑,
- 72', Kanga J. ↓, Soderback M. ↑,
- 75', Mastokangas E. ↓, Laine L. ↑,
- 75', Fati B. ↓, Murilo ↑,
- 75', Streng J. ↓, Tessilimi O. ↑,
- 83', Jukkola O. ↓, Hytonen T. ↑,
- 83', Veteli J. ↓, Kilo J. ↑,
- 85', 1 - 1, Miettunen T. ⚽, Stjopin M. (A),
- 89', 2 - 1, Murilo ⚽, Tessilimi O. (A),
Chances of winning
SJK
29.4% | Draw
22.7% | Ilves
47.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SJK's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for SJK than the current prediction. (+9.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-11%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
SJK - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.22 ↑
(2.49) |
4.19 ↑
(3.92) |
1.96 ↓
(2.51) |
6%
(5.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for SJK - Ilves?
Users Predictions:
Ilves will win
(13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Ilves will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SJK won 1.
- SJK has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Ilves is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Ilves will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There are questionable in SJK: Chukwudi S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Ilves: Ala-Myllymaki L.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SJK won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:28. (average 1.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, SJK won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has SJK won against Ilves?
SJK has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against SJK?
Ilves has won 1 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between SJK - Ilves were as follows:
05.07.2025
SJK
-
Ilves
1:1
18.06.2025
Ilves
-
SJK
2:3
25.01.2025
Ilves
-
SJK
1:1
19.10.2024
Ilves
-
SJK
4:0
19.06.2024
Ilves
-
SJK
2:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | KuPS | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 51:29 | 22 | 53 |
| 2 | Ilves | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 57:35 | 22 | 52 |
| 3 | Inter Turku | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 49:25 | 24 | 50 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 54:39 | 15 | 48 |
| 5 | HJK | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 66:37 | 29 | 47 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
