Result
3:1
05/10/2025 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 11
- Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Poland | CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 0.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (548/626) | 75% (206/273) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 0.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.51 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (548/626) | 75% (206/273) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (10/24) | 46% (18/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (138/177) | 57% (37/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 40% (6/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.63 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 27% (4/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.49 | -1.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45', 1 - 0, Lozano S. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 54', Smolarczyk B. 🟨,
- 56', 2 - 0, Lozano S. ⚽, Prip L. (A),
- 64', Rallis D. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
- 64', Lozano S. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
- 64', Jozwiak K. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
- 64', Blanik D. ↓, Niski N. ↑,
- 64', Matuszewski K. ↓, Pieczek M. ↑,
- 65', Pululu A. 🟨,
- 71', Remacle M. ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
- 71', Antonin ↓, Strzebonski M. ↑,
- 73', Prip L. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
- 76', Davidovic S. ↓, Nono ↑,
- 81', 3 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽, Pietuszewski O. (A),
- 88', Imaz J. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
- 90+4', 3 - 1, Sotiriou K. ⚽, Niski N. (A),
Chances of winning
Jagiellonia Białystok
46.3% | Draw
26.8% | Korona Kielce
26.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.02 ↑
(1.84) |
3.49 ↓
(3.8) |
3.51 ↓
(3.7) |
6.7%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Korona will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 56.3% – 96.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Korona (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 3.
- Jagiellonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Korona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Korona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.
- Jagiellonia might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 44:24. (average 2.2:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 23:8. (average 2.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Korona Kielce?
Jagiellonia Białystok has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Korona Kielce won against Jagiellonia Białystok?
Korona Kielce has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce were as follows:
27.04.2025
Korona Kielce
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
3:1
27.10.2024
Jagiellonia Białystok
-
Korona Kielce
3:1
11.05.2024
Jagiellonia Białystok
-
Korona Kielce
3:0
28.02.2024
Jagiellonia Białystok
-
Korona Kielce
2:1
11.11.2023
Korona Kielce
-
Jagiellonia Białystok
2:2
Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok
Latest results of Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:37 | 9 | 44 |
| 2 | Zaglebie | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 40:30 | 10 | 41 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43:34 | 9 | 41 |
| 4 | Gornik Zabrze | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 36:32 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Wisla Plock | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 28:25 | 3 | 39 |
| 6 | Rakow | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 35:33 | 2 | 38 |
| 7 | Motor Lublin | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 35:38 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 33:29 | 4 | 36 |
| 9 | Cracovia | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 31:28 | 3 | 36 |
| 10 | GKS Katowice | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 35:35 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | Piast Gliwice | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 35 |
| 12 | Lechia Gdansk | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 51:48 | 3 | 34 |
| 13 | Pogon Szczecin | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 36:40 | -4 | 34 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 33 |
| 15 | Legia | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 30:31 | -1 | 30 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 25:44 | -19 | 30 |
| 17 | Widzew Lodz | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 31:34 | -3 | 29 |
| 18 | Termalica B-B | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 30:48 | -18 | 22 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
