Jagiellonia Białystok vs Korona Kielce – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce
Result
3:1
05/10/2025 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ekstraklasa - Round 11
  • Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
polandPolandCANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1x2
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.250.87
Ball Possession
69%31%
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
77
Passes
88% (548/626)75% (206/273)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
1.250.87
xG on target (xGOT)
1.630.51
Total shots
1814
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
86
Blocked Shots
45
Shots inside the Box
1111
Shots outside the Box
73
Hit the Woodwork
30
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
77
Touches in opposition box
2521
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
109
Passes
88% (548/626)75% (206/273)
Long passes
42% (10/24)46% (18/39)
Passes in final third
78% (138/177)57% (37/65)
Crosses
23% (5/22)40% (6/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.070.63
Throw-ins
1815
Fouls
910
Tackles
60% (9/15)27% (4/15)
Duels won
4640
Clearances
1832
Interceptions
1013
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
0.511.63
Goals prevented
-0.49-1.37

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 45', 1 - 0, Lozano S. ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 54', Smolarczyk B. 🟨,
  • 56', 2 - 0, Lozano S. , Prip L. (A),
  • 64', Rallis D. , Pululu A. ,
  • 64', Lozano S. , Flach L. ,
  • 64', Jozwiak K. , Pietuszewski O. ,
  • 64', Blanik D. , Niski N. ,
  • 64', Matuszewski K. , Pieczek M. ,
  • 65', Pululu A. 🟨,
  • 71', Remacle M. , Nikolov V. ,
  • 71', Antonin , Strzebonski M. ,
  • 73', Prip L. , Cantero A. ,
  • 76', Davidovic S. , Nono ,
  • 81', 3 - 0, Imaz J. , Pietuszewski O. (A),
  • 88', Imaz J. , Mazurek B. ,
  • 90+4', 3 - 1, Sotiriou K. , Niski N. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Jagiellonia Białystok
46.3%
Draw
26.8%
Korona Kielce
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50.5% 24.4% 25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7% 26% 23.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
  • Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
  • Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.02
    (1.84)
    3.49
    (3.8)
    3.51
    (3.7)
    6.7%
    (7.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Korona will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 56.3%96.7%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Korona (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 3.
    • Jagiellonia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Korona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Korona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.
    • Jagiellonia might have a minor edge in this game.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 44:24. (average 2.2:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 23:8. (average 2.6:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce were as follows:
    27.04.2025 Korona Kielce - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:1
    27.10.2024 Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce 3:1
    11.05.2024 Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce 3:0
    28.02.2024 Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce 2:1
    11.11.2023 Korona Kielce - Jagiellonia Białystok 2:2
    Latest results of Korona Kielce
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Jagiellonia1173123:131024
    2Gornik Zabrze1272319:10923
    3Cracovia1163220:12821
    4Wisla Plock1163215:8721
    5Korona Kielce1254316:11519
    6Lech Poznan1154220:18219
    7Zaglebie1245325:18717
    8Widzew Lodz1351720:20016
    9Legia1143414:12215
    10Radomiak Radom1243522:22015
    11Rakow1142512:15-314
    12Pogon Szczecin1242618:22-414
    13Motor Lublin1235416:21-514
    14Arka Gdynia123367:19-1212
    15GKS Katowice1232716:24-811
    16Lechia Gdansk1243521:27-610
    17Termalica B-B1324717:25-810
    18Piast Gliwice101459:13-47

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1