Termalica Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia Białystok – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/12/2025 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza).

Ekstraklasa - Round 18
Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.78
Ball Possession
27%	73%
Total shots
6	17
Shots on target
1	7
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
2	10
Passes
71% (168/238)	89% (591/667)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.78
xG on target (xGOT)
0.57	1.53
Total shots
6	17
Shots on target
1	7
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
2	5
Shots inside the Box
5	6
Shots outside the Box
1	11
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
2	10
Touches in opposition box
11	28
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	0
Free Kicks
10	18
Passes
71% (168/238)	89% (591/667)
Long passes
37% (17/46)	64% (30/47)
Passes in final third
54% (38/70)	81% (196/241)
Crosses
36% (5/14)	18% (6/33)
Expected assists (xA)
0.70	1.21
Throw-ins
6	25
Fouls
18	10
Tackles
63% (12/19)	45% (5/11)
Duels won
49	44
Clearances
42	12
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	0
xGOT faced
1.53	0.57
Goals prevented
0.53	-0.43

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Drachal D. (Own goal),
30', Flach L. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Vital B. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
44', Kopacz B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Strzalek I. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
46', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
60', Flach L. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
65', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
67', Mazurek B. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
67', Drachal D. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
73', Jimenez J. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Zapolnik K. ⚽, Boboc R. (A),
79', Wdowik B. 🟨,
83', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Termalica Nieciecza
27.8%

Draw
24.6%

Jagiellonia Białystok
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

28.2%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.9%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.03)	3.83 ↑ (3.17)	1.97 ↓ (2.11)	6.6% (11.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DNB - Jagiellonia (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Jagiellonia (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 10 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2.
Termalica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Jagiellonia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Jagiellonia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Termalica: Trubeha A. (Inactive)
There will not play in Jagiellonia: Cantero A. (Inactive)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 0.9:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Jagiellonia Białystok?

Termalica Nieciecza has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Termalica Nieciecza?

Jagiellonia Białystok has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok were as follows:

18.07.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza 0:4

Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza

29.11.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza 5:1 ✺

21.11.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia 2:0 ✺

09.11.2025 Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza 1:2 ✺

31.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice 0:3 ✺

24.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok

04.12.2025 GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:1 ✺

30.11.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok 0:0 ✺

27.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio 1:0 ✺

14.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 5:1 ✺

09.11.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Jagiellonia	21	10	7	4	37:24	13	37
2	Zaglebie	22	9	8	5	35:27	8	35
3	Lech Poznan	22	9	8	5	36:31	5	35
4	Gornik Zabrze	22	10	4	8	32:28	4	34
5	Rakow	22	10	4	8	28:25	3	34
6	Wisla Plock	22	8	9	5	24:18	6	33
7	Cracovia	22	8	9	5	27:22	5	33
8	Korona Kielce	22	8	6	8	27:24	3	30
9	Radomiak Radom	21	7	7	7	36:33	3	28
10	Pogon Szczecin	22	8	4	10	32:35	-3	28
11	Lechia Gdansk	22	9	5	8	44:43	1	27
12	GKS Katowice	21	8	3	10	28:31	-3	27
13	Motor Lublin	22	6	9	7	30:37	-7	27
14	Piast Gliwice	22	7	5	10	23:26	-3	26
15	Arka Gdynia	21	7	4	10	19:36	-17	25
16	Legia	22	5	9	8	25:27	-2	24
17	Widzew Lodz	22	7	3	12	29:32	-3	24
18	Termalica B-B	22	5	6	11	26:39	-13	21

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1