Zagłębie Lubin vs Termalica Nieciecza – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

24/04/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin).

Ekstraklasa - Round 30
Referee: Kos D. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.60	1.65
Ball possession
42%	58%
Total shots
10	15
Shots on target
2	8
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
6	4
Passes
67% (185/275)	81% (313/388)
Yellow cards
6	2
Red cards
1	0
Expected goals (xG)
0.60	1.65
xG on target (xGOT)
0.76	1.99
Total shots
10	15
Shots on target
2	8
Shots off target
5	3
Blocked shots
3	4
Shots inside the box
9	7
Shots outside the box
1	8
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
1	1
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
6	4
Touches in opposition box
31	29
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
0	1
Free kicks
16	11
Passes
67% (185/275)	81% (313/388)
Long passes
40% (25/62)	49% (21/43)
Passes in final third
49% (42/85)	76% (96/127)
Crosses
26% (5/19)	14% (4/29)
Expected assists (xA)
0.75	1.02
Throw ins
19	22
Fouls
11	16
Tackles
44% (7/16)	50% (4/8)
Duels won
76	41
Clearances
38	33
Interceptions
4	3
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
6	1
xGOT faced
1.99	0.76
Goals prevented
-0.01	-0.24

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Nalepa M. 🟨,
12', Hilbrycht D. 🟨,
15', Zapolnik K. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Regula M. ⚽, Orlikowski I. (A),
37', Grzybek M. 🟨,
42', Radwanski A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Matysik M. ↓, Isik G. ↑,
58', Regula M. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Hilbrycht D. ⚽, Jimenez J. (A),
63', Grzybek M. ↓, Lucic L. ↑,
64', Radwanski A. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
64', Dziewiatowski M. ↓, Kocaba F. ↑,
64', Fassbender M. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
66', Regula M. 🟨,
76', Lucic L. 🟨,
77', Szabo L. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
78', Jimenez J. ↓, Durdov I. ↑,
78', Dabrowski D. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
83', Strzalek I. ↓, Biniek D. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Durdov I. ⚽,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Zagłębie Lubin
51.8%

Draw
25.5%

Termalica Nieciecza
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

24.4%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

23.3%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Termalica Nieciecza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Zagłębie Lubin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (-3%)

Zagłębie Lubin - Termalica Nieciecza Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.61)	3.66 ↑ (3.62)	4.11 ↓ (4.3)	7.5% (13%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Termalica Nieciecza?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Zagłębie Lubin will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 3.
Zagłębie Lubin is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Termalica's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Zagłębie Lubin is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Hladun D. (Shoulder Injury) Makowski T. (Inactive)
There will not play in Termalica: Guerrero S. (Yellow Cards) Kopacz B. (Inactive)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Termalica Nieciecza?

Zagłębie Lubin has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Zagłębie Lubin?

Termalica Nieciecza has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Termalica Nieciecza were as follows:

24.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin 1:1

Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin

17.04.2026 Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin 1:0 ✺

11.04.2026 Zagłębie Lubin - Radomiak Radom 0:2 ✺

07.04.2026 Arka Gdynia - Zagłębie Lubin 3:1 ✺

20.03.2026 Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Lubin 1:0 ✺

15.03.2026 Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza

19.04.2026 Termalica Nieciecza - Wisła Płock 1:3 ✺

11.04.2026 Widzew Łódź - Termalica Nieciecza 1:0 ✺

06.04.2026 Termalica Nieciecza - Piast Gliwice 3:2 ✺

22.03.2026 Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza 4:1 ✺

13.03.2026 Termalica Nieciecza - Motor Lublin 1:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	30	14	10	6	55:41	14	52
2	Gornik Zabrze	30	14	7	9	43:34	9	49
3	Jagiellonia	30	12	10	8	48:37	11	46
4	Rakow	30	13	7	10	43:37	6	46
5	Wisla Plock	30	12	9	9	32:28	4	45
6	GKS Katowice	30	13	5	12	43:41	2	44
7	Zaglebie	30	12	8	10	43:36	7	44
8	Radomiak Radom	30	10	10	10	46:43	3	40
9	Motor Lublin	30	9	12	9	39:45	-6	39
10	Piast Gliwice	30	11	6	13	39:40	-1	39
11	Lechia Gdansk	30	12	7	11	57:54	3	38
12	Korona Kielce	30	10	8	12	37:36	1	38
13	Cracovia	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38
14	Pogon Szczecin	30	11	5	14	40:45	-5	38
15	Legia	30	8	13	9	34:36	-2	37
16	Widzew Lodz	30	10	6	14	36:37	-1	36
17	Arka Gdynia	30	9	7	14	31:54	-23	34
18	Termalica B-B	30	7	7	16	36:55	-19	28

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1