Termalica Nieciecza vs Jagiellonia Białystok – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

07/12/2025 at 06:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza (Nieciecza).

Ekstraklasa - Round 18
Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.78
Ball Possession
27%	73%
Total shots
6	17
Shots on target
1	7
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
2	10
Passes
71% (168/238)	89% (591/667)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.78
xG on target (xGOT)
0.57	1.53
Total shots
6	17
Shots on target
1	7
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
2	5
Shots inside the Box
5	6
Shots outside the Box
1	11
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
2	10
Touches in opposition box
11	28
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	0
Free Kicks
10	18
Passes
71% (168/238)	89% (591/667)
Long passes
37% (17/46)	64% (30/47)
Passes in final third
54% (38/70)	81% (196/241)
Crosses
36% (5/14)	18% (6/33)
Expected assists (xA)
0.70	1.21
Throw-ins
6	25
Fouls
18	10
Tackles
63% (12/19)	45% (5/11)
Duels won
49	44
Clearances
42	12
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	0
xGOT faced
1.53	0.57
Goals prevented
0.53	-0.43

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Drachal D. (Own goal),
30', Flach L. 🟨,
40', 1 - 1, Vital B. ⚽, Wdowik B. (A),
44', Kopacz B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Strzalek I. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
46', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
60', Flach L. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
65', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
67', Mazurek B. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
67', Drachal D. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
73', Jimenez J. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Zapolnik K. ⚽, Boboc R. (A),
79', Wdowik B. 🟨,
83', Wojtuszek N. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Termalica Nieciecza
27.8%

Draw
24.6%

Jagiellonia Białystok
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

28.2%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

27.9%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.03)	3.83 ↑ (3.17)	1.97 ↓ (2.11)	6.6% (11.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok?

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Termalica will win (votes: 4 - 19%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Jagiellonia (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Jagiellonia (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jagiellonia Białystok will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 10 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 2.
Termalica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Jagiellonia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Jagiellonia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Termalica: Trubeha A. (Inactive)
There will not play in Jagiellonia: Cantero A. (Inactive)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 0.9:0.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Jagiellonia Białystok?

Termalica Nieciecza has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Termalica Nieciecza?

Jagiellonia Białystok has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok were as follows:

18.07.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Termalica Nieciecza 0:4

Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza

29.11.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza 5:1 ✺

21.11.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia 2:0 ✺

09.11.2025 Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza 1:2 ✺

31.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice 0:3 ✺

24.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok

04.12.2025 GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok 3:1 ✺

30.11.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok 0:0 ✺

27.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio 1:0 ✺

14.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 5:1 ✺

09.11.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	30	14	10	6	55:41	14	52
2	Gornik Zabrze	30	14	7	9	43:34	9	49
3	Jagiellonia	30	12	10	8	48:37	11	46
4	Rakow	30	13	7	10	43:37	6	46
5	Wisla Plock	30	12	9	9	32:28	4	45
6	GKS Katowice	30	13	5	12	43:41	2	44
7	Zaglebie	30	12	8	10	43:36	7	44
8	Radomiak Radom	30	10	10	10	46:43	3	40
9	Motor Lublin	30	9	12	9	39:45	-6	39
10	Piast Gliwice	30	11	6	13	39:40	-1	39
11	Lechia Gdansk	30	12	7	11	57:54	3	38
12	Korona Kielce	30	10	8	12	37:36	1	38
13	Cracovia	30	9	11	10	35:38	-3	38
14	Pogon Szczecin	30	11	5	14	40:45	-5	38
15	Legia	30	8	13	9	34:36	-2	37
16	Widzew Lodz	30	10	6	14	36:37	-1	36
17	Arka Gdynia	30	9	7	14	31:54	-23	34
18	Termalica B-B	30	7	7	16	36:55	-19	28

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
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      Relegation ~ Division 1