Result
0:2
11/08/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 4
- Referee: Garcia Mendoza K. I. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, Tubi TV |
Usa | Estrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.19 | 0.68 |
Ball Possession |
---|
60% | 40% |
Total shots |
---|
5 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
0 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
9 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
84% (402/480) | 75% (246/328) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
4 | 3 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.19 | 0.68 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.00 | 1.64 |
Total shots |
---|
5 | 7 |
Shots on target |
---|
0 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
5 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
0 | 2 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
2 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 2 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
0 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
9 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
13 | 10 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
16 | 10 |
Passes |
---|
84% (402/480) | 75% (246/328) |
Long passes |
---|
46% (16/35) | 32% (19/60) |
Passes in final third |
---|
69% (82/118) | 58% (38/66) |
Crosses |
---|
10% (3/30) | 38% (3/8) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.35 | 0.66 |
Throw-ins |
---|
34 | 23 |
Fouls |
---|
10 | 18 |
Tackles |
---|
69% (9/13) | 67% (14/21) |
Duels won |
---|
43 | 48 |
Clearances |
---|
15 | 39 |
Interceptions |
---|
12 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
1 | 0 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.64 | 0.00 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.36 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Morales R. (A),
- 45', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', 0 - 2, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 55', Madson 🟨,
- 56', Pizarro R. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 56', Garcia D. ↓, Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ↑,
- 57', Mayorga A. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
- 64', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
- 65', Mosquera M. 🟨,
- 67', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
- 71', Paulinho ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
- 73', Puma ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
- 79', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 79', Castro N. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 82', 🟨,
- 88', Alvarez A. 🟨,
- 88', 🟨,
- 90', Morales R. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 90+1', Angulo J. ↓, Arroyo J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Juárez 27.2% | Draw 26.1% | Toluca 46.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Juárez - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.47 ↓ (3.6) |
3.6 ↑ (3.5) |
2.02 ↑ (1.86) |
6.2% (10.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Juárez - Toluca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 1.
- Juárez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Toluca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Juárez has had a series of away games.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
- There are questionable in Juárez: Gonzalez Mendoza J. A.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Murillo J.
(Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against Toluca?
Juárez has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Juárez?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Juárez - Toluca were as follows:
22.02.2025
Juárez
-
Toluca
0:4
13.07.2024
Toluca
-
Juárez
3:2
08.03.2024
Juárez
-
Toluca
1:1
16.07.2023
Toluca
-
Juárez
2:4
23.04.2023
Toluca
-
Juárez
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Monterrey | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 15 |
2 | Cruz Azul | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13:7 | 6 | 14 |
3 | Pachuca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 6 | 13 |
4 | Club America | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9:4 | 5 | 11 |
5 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15:8 | 7 | 10 |
6 | Toluca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 10 |
7 | Club Tijuana | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:9 | 1 | 9 |
8 | Juarez | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 8 |
9 | Club Leon | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 7 |
10 | Santos Laguna | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 6 |
11 | Atl. San Luis | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 6 |
12 | Mazatlan FC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 6 |
13 | UNAM Pumas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 5 |
14 | Atlas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10:14 | -4 | 5 |
15 | Necaxa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 5 |
16 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 4 |
17 | Queretaro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:12 | -5 | 4 |
18 | Puebla | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:14 | -10 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )