Result
3:1
08/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 10
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 0.32 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (417/465) | 80% (193/242) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 0.32 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 0.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (417/465) | 80% (193/242) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (23/40) | 48% (23/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 82% (115/141) | 67% (40/60) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (7/25) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 0.25 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 43% (6/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | -1.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2', Monchu 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 49', Mosquera M. 🟨,
- 54', 1 - 0, Helinho (Penalty Awarded),
- 57', Barbosa D. 🟨,
- 58', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 🟨,
- 68', Torres Ramirez I. J. M. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
- 68', Monchu ↓, Martinez Yepez H. E. ↑,
- 68', Puma ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
- 70', Murillo J. 🟨,
- 70', 2 - 0, Briseno A. ⚽, Cordova S. (A),
- 72', 2 - 1, Guilherme Castilho ⚽, Pizarro R. (A),
- 74', Estupinan O. ↓, Ayon E. ↑,
- 76', Isais M. ↓, Gallardo J. ↑,
- 77', Rossi F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 81', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
- 81', Helinho ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
- 81', Cordova S. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
- 86', Castro N. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
- 90+8', 3 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
Chances of winning
Toluca
69.7% | Draw
18.9% | Juárez
11.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Toluca - Juárez Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↑
(1.31) |
4.96 ↓
(5.17) |
8.29 ↓
(9.58) |
7%
(6.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toluca - Juárez?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Juárez will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Juárez (2.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Juárez (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Juárez (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.
- Toluca is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, Juárez has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Toluca is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Juárez: Romero B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Simon S.
(Injury)
Vega A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Juárez: Madson
(Injury)
Ricardinho
(Injury)
- We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.5:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Juárez?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against Toluca?
Juárez has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Juárez were as follows:
29.11.2025
Toluca
-
Juárez
0:0
26.11.2025
Juárez
-
Toluca
1:2
11.08.2025
Juárez
-
Toluca
0:2
22.02.2025
Juárez
-
Toluca
0:4
13.07.2024
Toluca
-
Juárez
3:2
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 25:11 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23:12 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Toluca | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 19:7 | 12 | 26 |
| 4 | UNAM Pumas | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 21:12 | 9 | 23 |
| 5 | Pachuca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15:10 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18:14 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Club America | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13:11 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18:15 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Juarez | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 18:20 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Club Leon | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 13:24 | -11 | 13 |
| 13 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12:14 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Puebla | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18:21 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14:23 | -9 | 11 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14:30 | -16 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
