Result
0:2
11/08/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 4
- Referee: Garcia Mendoza K. I. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, Tubi TV |
 Usa | Estrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.19 | 0.68 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (402/480) | 75% (246/328) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.19 | 0.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.64 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (402/480) | 75% (246/328) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (16/35) | 32% (19/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (82/118) | 58% (38/66) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (3/30) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 0.66 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 34 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.36 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Morales R. (A),
- 45', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', 0 - 2, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 55', Madson 🟨,
- 56', Pizarro R. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 56', Garcia D. ↓, Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ↑,
- 57', Mayorga A. ↓, Guilherme Castilho ↑,
- 64', Guilherme Castilho 🟨,
- 65', Mosquera M. 🟨,
- 67', Martinez Yepez H. E. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
- 71', Paulinho ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
- 73', Puma ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
- 79', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 79', Castro N. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 82', 🟨,
- 88', Alvarez A. 🟨,
- 88', 🟨,
- 90', Morales R. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 90+1', Angulo J. ↓, Arroyo J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Juárez
27.2% | Draw
26.1% | Toluca
46.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Juárez - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.47 ↓
(3.6) |
3.6 ↑
(3.5) |
2.02 ↑
(1.86) |
6.2%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Juárez - Toluca?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.67% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 1.
- Juárez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Toluca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Juárez has had a series of away games.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
- There are questionable in Juárez: Gonzalez Mendoza J. A.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Murillo J.
(Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Juárez won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1.1:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Juárez won against Toluca?
Juárez has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Juárez?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Juárez - Toluca were as follows:
22.02.2025
Juárez
-
Toluca
0:4
13.07.2024
Toluca
-
Juárez
3:2
08.03.2024
Juárez
-
Toluca
1:1
16.07.2023
Toluca
-
Juárez
2:4
23.04.2023
Toluca
-
Juárez
1:1
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Monterrey ✔ | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 30:22 | 8 | 30 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 25:17 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
