Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia
Result
1:1
23/09/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 31
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaK-Ball
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.450.65
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
199
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
101
Passes
80% (371/464)61% (122/200)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
2.450.65
xG on target (xGOT)
2.060.37
Total shots
199
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
85
Blocked Shots
62
Shots inside the Box
86
Shots outside the Box
113
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
23
Corner Kicks
101
Touches in opposition box
3515
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
137
Passes
80% (371/464)61% (122/200)
Long passes
45% (23/51)34% (19/56)
Passes in final third
75% (134/178)54% (52/97)
Crosses
8% (2/26)7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.790.33
Throw-ins
3214
Fouls
713
Tackles
80% (4/5)52% (11/21)
Duels won
3648
Clearances
2147
Interceptions
510
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.372.06
Goals prevented
-0.631.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Okamura D. , Nishimura T. (A),
  • 20', Joao Pedro 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 49', Mae H. 🟨,
  • 53', Takeda S. 🟨,
  • 56', Okugawa M. , Yamada F. ,
  • 62', Okamura D. , Shimoda H. ,
  • 67', Joao Pedro , Hirato T. ,
  • 74', Rafael Elias (Pen),
  • 75', Nishimura T. , Na Sang-Ho ,
  • 75', Fujio S. , Duke M. ,
  • 75', Soma Y. , Numata T. ,
  • 85', Sugai H. , Sato K. ,
  • 85', Nakano R. , Leo Gomes ,
  • 85', Takeda S. , Nagasawa S. ,
  • 89', Mae H. , Shirasaki R. ,
  • 90+1', Numata T. 🟨,
  • 90+3', 1 - 1, Hara T. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Kyoto Sanga
26.5%
Draw
28.3%
Machida Zelvia
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.2% 27.1% 40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9% 27.4% 41%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kyoto Sanga's form might have worsened.
  • Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kyoto Sanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
  • Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.54
    (2.92)
    3.33
    (3.47)
    2.12
    (2.32)
    5.6%
    (6.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 17.8%64.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Kyoto (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 5).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.
    • Kyoto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Machida Zelvia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Machida Zelvia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Kyoto: Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
    • There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Soma Y. (Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.1:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia were as follows:
    06.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0
    07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2
    30.11.2024 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0
    06.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia 0:3
    Latest results of Kyoto Sanga
    Latest results of Machida Zelvia
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers35207853:292467
    2Kashiwa Reysol351812555:332266
    3Kyoto351711759:372262
    4Vissel Kobe34187943:281561
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima351781039:261359
    6Machida351691049:351457
    7Kawasaki Frontale351511965:501556
    8Urawa Reds3514111040:36453
    9Gamba Osaka351651448:52-453
    10Cerezo Osaka3513101254:50449
    11FC Tokyo351291439:47-845
    12Shimizu S-Pulse3511111339:44-544
    13Verdy351191522:36-1442
    14Avispa Fukuoka3410111332:37-541
    15Okayama351181631:40-941
    16Nagoya Grampus3510101542:52-1040
    17Yokohama F. Marinos351071839:44-537
    18Yokohama FC35881923:41-1832
    19Shonan Bellmare ✔ 34682029:58-2926
    20Albirex Niigata ✔ 344102030:56-2622

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Shonan Bellmare is Relegated to J2 League
    Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League