Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/09/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Sanga Stadium by Kyocera (Kameoka).

J1 League - Round 31
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.45	0.65
Ball Possession
70%	30%
Total shots
19	9
Shots on target
5	2
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
10	1
Passes
80% (371/464)	61% (122/200)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.45	0.65
xG on target (xGOT)
2.06	0.37
Total shots
19	9
Shots on target
5	2
Shots off target
8	5
Blocked Shots
6	2
Shots inside the Box
8	6
Shots outside the Box
11	3
Hit the Woodwork
1	1
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
10	1
Touches in opposition box
35	15
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
13	7
Passes
80% (371/464)	61% (122/200)
Long passes
45% (23/51)	34% (19/56)
Passes in final third
75% (134/178)	54% (52/97)
Crosses
8% (2/26)	7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
0.79	0.33
Throw-ins
32	14
Fouls
7	13
Tackles
80% (4/5)	52% (11/21)
Duels won
36	48
Clearances
21	47
Interceptions
5	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	4
xGOT faced
0.37	2.06
Goals prevented
-0.63	1.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Okamura D. ⚽, Nishimura T. (A),
20', Joao Pedro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Mae H. 🟨,
53', Takeda S. 🟨,
56', Okugawa M. ↓, Yamada F. ↑,
62', Okamura D. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
67', Joao Pedro ↓, Hirato T. ↑,
74', Rafael Elias (Pen),
75', Nishimura T. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
75', Fujio S. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
75', Soma Y. ↓, Numata T. ↑,
85', Sugai H. ↓, Sato K. ↑,
85', Nakano R. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
85', Takeda S. ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
89', Mae H. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,
90+1', Numata T. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Hara T. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Kyoto Sanga
26.5%

Draw
28.3%

Machida Zelvia
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

27.1%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27.4%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kyoto Sanga's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kyoto Sanga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.92)	3.33 ↓ (3.47)	2.12 ↓ (2.32)	5.6% (6.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia?

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 17.8% – 64.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Kyoto (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 2.
Kyoto is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Machida Zelvia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Machida Zelvia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Kyoto: Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Soma Y. (Injury)
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Kyoto won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Kyoto won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Machida Zelvia?

Kyoto Sanga has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Kyoto Sanga?

Machida Zelvia has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia were as follows:

06.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0

07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2

30.11.2024 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0

06.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia 0:3

Latest results of Kyoto Sanga

20.09.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Shimizu S-Pulse 0:1 ✺

12.09.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama 5:0 ✺

24.08.2025 Tokyo - Kyoto Sanga 0:4 ✺

16.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo Verdy 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

16.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul 1:1 ✺

12.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC 1:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia 5:3 ✺

27.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers 3:0 ✺

23.08.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Machida Zelvia 0:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	33	20	5	8	52:28	24	65
2	Kyoto	33	17	9	7	57:35	22	60
3	Kashiwa Reysol	33	16	12	5	48:33	15	60
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	43:28	15	60
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	39:23	16	58
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	49:35	14	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	11	8	60:45	15	53
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	40:32	8	52
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	46:47	-1	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	10	12	50:49	1	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	10	11	12	35:39	-4	41
12	Okayama	33	11	8	14	29:35	-6	41
13	FC Tokyo	33	11	8	14	36:46	-10	41
14	Avispa Fukuoka	33	10	10	13	32:37	-5	40
15	Nagoya Grampus	33	10	9	14	40:48	-8	39
16	Verdy	33	10	9	14	21:35	-14	39
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	8	7	18	32:44	-12	31
18	Yokohama FC	33	8	7	18	21:37	-16	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	33	6	7	20	28:57	-29	25
20	Albirex Niigata	33	4	10	19	30:55	-25	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League