Lechia Gdańsk vs Stal Mielec: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

14/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk).

: Ekstraklasa - Round 28
Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.70	1.64
Ball Possession
63%	37%
Total shots
25	7
Shots on target
7	2
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
11	1
Passes
85% (456/535)	76% (247/326)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.70	1.64
xG on target (xGOT)
2.00	1.17
Total shots
25	7
Shots on target
7	2
Shots off target
10	3
Blocked Shots
8	2
Shots inside the Box
17	6
Shots outside the Box
8	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
2	3
Corner Kicks
11	1
Touches in opposition box
39	17
Through passes
50% (1/2)	100% (1/1)
Offsides
2	3
Free Kicks
8	6
Passes
85% (456/535)	76% (247/326)
Long passes
45% (20/44)	44% (23/52)
Passes in final third
78% (156/199)	60% (31/52)
Crosses
36% (8/22)	33% (3/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.55	0.91
Fouls
6	8
Tackles
74% (14/19)	62% (8/13)
Duels won
53	39
Clearances Total
8	32
Interceptions
9	10
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	4
xGOT faced
1.17	2.00
Goals prevented
-0.83	-1.00

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', 0 - 1, Gerbowski F. ⚽, Guillaumier M. (A),
42', 0 - 2, Cavaleiro I. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Beauguel J. ↑,
48', Esselink B. 🟨,
62', Gerbowski F. ↓, Kadzior D. ↑,
67', Khlan M. ↓, Tsarenko A. ↑,
68', Chindris A. ↓, Gueho L. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Bobcek T. ⚽, Kapic R. (A),
85', Domanski M. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
85', Kapic R. ↓, Neugebauer T. ↑,
86', Beauguel J. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Bobcek T. ⚽, Mena C. (A),
90+3', 3 - 2, Neugebauer T. ⚽, Tsarenko A. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Lechia Gdańsk
43.8%

Draw
27.7%

Stal Mielec
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

27.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

25.4%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stal Mielec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.2)	3.38 ↑ (3.25)	3.25 ↑ (2.88)	7% (10.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 53.8% – 96.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Lechia (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Lechia won 2.
Lechia is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Stal Mielec has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Lechia will have a mini benefit in this match.
There will not play in Lechia: Pllana B. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Stal Mielec: Dadok R. (Yellow Cards) Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches Lechia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:9 (average 1.9:1.3).
Including matches at home between the teams Lechia won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:4 (average 2.7:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Lechia Gdańsk won against Stal Mielec?

Lechia Gdańsk has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Lechia Gdańsk?

Stal Mielec has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec were as follows:

05.10.2024 Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk 2:1

14.05.2023 Stal Mielec - Lechia Gdańsk 0:0

30.10.2022 Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec 1:0

Latest results of Lechia Gdańsk

04.04.2025 Widzew Łódź - Lechia Gdańsk 2:0 ✺

29.03.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:0 ✺

14.03.2025 Radomiak Radom - Lechia Gdańsk 2:1 ✺

09.03.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze 1:2 ✺

03.03.2025 Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Stal Mielec

04.04.2025 Stal Mielec - Cracovia 1:1 ✺

30.03.2025 Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec 4:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław 1:4 ✺

08.03.2025 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 3:1 ✺

01.03.2025 Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce 0:1 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arka Gdynia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Jagiellonia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Gornik Zabrze	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Korona Kielce	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Piast Gliwice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	GKS Katowice	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Motor Lublin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Wisla Plock	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Pogon Szczecin	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Legia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Lech Poznan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Zaglebie	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Cracovia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Widzew Lodz	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Radomiak Radom	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Termalica B-B	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Rakow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Lechia Gdansk	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	-5

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1

Which TV channels are streaming of Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 6
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball