Result
1:0
09/11/2025 at 07:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 15
- Referee: Tsyganok S. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q Sport Asia |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.31 | 0.42 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (249/336) | 73% (244/332) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.31 | 0.42 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 0.32 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (249/336) | 73% (244/332) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (34/60) | 33% (18/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (64/105) | 65% (91/141) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (8/20) | 21% (6/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.03 | 0.67 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (15/19) | 67% (4/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 94 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 42 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.32 | 1.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', Barinov D. 🟨,
- 55', Prutsev D. ↓, Sarveli V. ↑,
- 59', Khotulev D. 🟨,
- 73', 1 - 0, Komlichenko N. (Pen),
- 81', Guzina G. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
- 81', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Ignatjev I. ↑,
- 81', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Kamilov V. ↑,
- 87', Gurluk E. ↓, Oganesyan S. ↑,
- 87', Thompson J. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
- 88', Oganesyan S. 🟨,
- 89', Bakaev Z. ↓, Nenakhov M. ↑,
- 90+4', Komlichenko N. ↓, Myalkovskiy R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lokomotiv Moscow
63.1% | Draw
20.4% | Orenburg
16.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lokomotiv Moscow's form might have worsened.Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (+9.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lokomotiv Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-5.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.52 ↑
(1.35) |
4.7 ↓
(4.8) |
5.82 ↓
(8) |
4.2%
(7.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Lokomotiv will win (votes: 5 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lokomotiv Moscow will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 4.
- Recent performances by Lokomotiv have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Orenburg is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lokomotiv may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Lokomotiv has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Lokomotiv is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Lokomotiv: Batrakov A.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:16. (average 2.3:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiv won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 2.1:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Lokomotiv Moscow won against Orenburg?
Lokomotiv Moscow has won 6 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Lokomotiv Moscow?
Orenburg has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg were as follows:
03.05.2025
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
1:1
01.10.2024
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
2:1
14.09.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:4
13.08.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:3
12.05.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
0:2
Latest results of Lokomotiv Moscow
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 48:16 | 32 | 52 |
| 2 | Zenit | 23 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 43:16 | 27 | 51 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 49:32 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Baltika | 23 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 32:11 | 21 | 43 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 36:25 | 11 | 42 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 37:31 | 6 | 41 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 23:25 | -2 | 33 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 40:33 | 7 | 31 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27:29 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | FK Rostov | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 18:25 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 | Akron Togliatti | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 28:40 | -12 | 22 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 14:29 | -15 | 22 |
| 13 | Krylya Sovetov | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 23:42 | -19 | 21 |
| 14 | Pari NN | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 18:37 | -19 | 20 |
| 15 | Orenburg | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24:36 | -12 | 19 |
| 16 | Sochi | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 20:53 | -33 | 9 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
