Lokomotiv Moscow vs Orenburg: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

03/05/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

RZD Arena (Moscow).

: Premier League - Round 27
Referee: Kazartsev V. (Rus)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.04	1.15
Ball Possession
49%	51%
Total shots
8	23
Shots on target
3	8
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
3	11
Passes
80% (294/368)	82% (294/358)
Yellow Cards
4	3
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04	1.15
xG on target (xGOT)
1.49	1.22
Total shots
8	23
Shots on target
3	8
Shots off target
2	8
Blocked Shots
3	7
Shots inside the Box
7	11
Shots outside the Box
1	12
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
3	11
Touches in opposition box
28	41
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
10	17
Passes
80% (294/368)	82% (294/358)
Long passes
47% (26/55)	67% (38/57)
Passes in final third
69% (71/103)	79% (110/140)
Crosses
11% (1/9)	21% (8/38)
Expected assists (xA)
0.55	1.26
Throw-ins
21	22
Fouls
17	10
Tackles
56% (9/16)	80% (16/20)
Duels won
51	59
Clearances
40	27
Interceptions
7	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
7	2
xGOT faced
1.22	1.49
Goals prevented
0.22	0.49

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Morozov E. 🟨,
38', Saharkhizan S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Saharkhizan S. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
49', Timofeev A. 🟨,
51', Malykh A. 🟨,
57', 1 - 0, Pinyaev S. ⚽,
61', Malykh A. ↓, Karatas K. ↑,
65', Timofeev A. 🟨,
65', 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Tataev A. ⚽,
67', Sarveli V. ↓, Godyaev D. ↑,
72', Basic I. 🟨,
74', Pinyaev S. ↓, Suleymanov T. ↑,
74', Vorobyev D. ↓, Rakov V. ↑,
77', Basic I. ↓, Mikhailov Y. ↑,
77', Moskvichev B. ↓, Sysuev N. ↑,
84', Gurluk E. ↓, Revazov A. ↑,

Chances of winning

Lokomotiv Moscow
54.8%

Draw
22.2%

Orenburg
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

20.7%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

23%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lokomotiv Moscow's form might have worsened.

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orenburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lokomotiv Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.55)	4.4 ↓ (4.76)	4.23 ↓ (6.29)	2.6% (1.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg?

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Lokomotiv will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Orenburg will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Orenburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 4.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Orenburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Lokomotiv is the team to beat.
There will not play in Orenburg: Florentin G. (Injury) Tataev A. (Injury)
There are questionable in Lokomotiv: Samoshnikov I. (Injury)
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 2.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiv won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Lokomotiv Moscow won against Orenburg?

Lokomotiv Moscow has won 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Lokomotiv Moscow?

Orenburg has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg were as follows:

01.10.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg 2:1

14.09.2024 Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow 2:4

13.08.2024 Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow 2:3

12.05.2024 Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow 0:2

17.09.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg 0:2

Latest results of Lokomotiv Moscow

30.04.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow - Rostov 0:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Rostov - Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1 ✺

19.04.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow - Pari NN 3:0 ✺

15.04.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow - Akhmat Grozny 2:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Rubin Kazan - Lokomotiv Moscow 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Orenburg

27.04.2025 Krylya Sovetov - Orenburg 2:0 ✺

19.04.2025 Orenburg - Dynamo Makhachkala 2:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Orenburg - CSKA Moscow 0:2 ✺

04.04.2025 Pari NN - Orenburg 1:2 ✺

29.03.2025 Dynamo Moscow - Orenburg 5:1 ✺

Russian Premier League Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Baltika	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Torpedo Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	FK Rostov	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Zenit	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Spartak Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	CSKA Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Lokomotiv Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dynamo Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Rubin Kazan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Krylya Sovetov	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Akhmat Grozny	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Krasnodar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Pari NN	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Akron Togliatti	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Dynamo Makhachkala	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Sochi	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL

Which TV channels are streaming of Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 8