Result
1:1
03/05/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 27
- Referee: Kazartsev V. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q Football Asia |
 Belarus | Belarus 5 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (294/368) | 82% (294/358) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 12 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 41 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (294/368) | 82% (294/358) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (26/55) | 67% (38/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (71/103) | 79% (110/140) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (1/9) | 21% (8/38) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.26 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 80% (16/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.22 | 0.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 4', Morozov E. 🟨,
- 38', Saharkhizan S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Saharkhizan S. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
- 49', Timofeev A. 🟨,
- 51', Malykh A. 🟨,
- 57', 1 - 0, Pinyaev S. ⚽,
- 61', Malykh A. ↓, Karatas K. ↑,
- 65', Timofeev A. 🟨,
- 65', 🟨,
- 66', 1 - 1, Tataev A. ⚽,
- 67', Sarveli V. ↓, Godyaev D. ↑,
- 72', Basic I. 🟨,
- 74', Pinyaev S. ↓, Suleymanov T. ↑,
- 74', Vorobyev D. ↓, Rakov V. ↑,
- 77', Basic I. ↓, Mikhailov Y. ↑,
- 77', Moskvichev B. ↓, Sysuev N. ↑,
- 84', Gurluk E. ↓, Revazov A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Lokomotiv Moscow
54.8% | Draw
22.2% | Orenburg
23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lokomotiv Moscow's form might have worsened.Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orenburg's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (+16%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lokomotiv Moscow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↑
(1.55) |
4.4 ↓
(4.76) |
4.23 ↓
(6.29) |
2.6%
(1.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Lokomotiv will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Orenburg will win (votes: 1 - 20%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Orenburg (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 4.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Orenburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Lokomotiv is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Orenburg: Florentin G.
(Injury)
Tataev A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Lokomotiv: Samoshnikov I.
(Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 11 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 2.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiv won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Lokomotiv Moscow won against Orenburg?
Lokomotiv Moscow has won 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Lokomotiv Moscow?
Orenburg has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg were as follows:
01.10.2024
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
2:1
14.09.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:4
13.08.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:3
12.05.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
0:2
17.09.2023
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
0:2
Latest results of Lokomotiv Moscow
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Rubin Kazan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Zenit | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Baltika | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Krylya Sovetov | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Akron Togliatti | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Orenburg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | CSKA Moscow | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | FK Rostov | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Sochi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | -3 | 0 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
