Result
2:0
16/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal 2 - Round 22
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', Tokinho Doria 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 0, Santos A. ⚽, Pereira B. (A),
- 33', Moreira C. 🟨,
- 45+1', Mere J. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
- 45+7', Faria B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Tokinho Doria ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
- 50', 2 - 0, Santos A. ⚽,
- 51', Carbonell A. 🟨,
- 53', Sanchez J. 🟨,
- 56', Mesquita T. ↓, Danny ↑,
- 56', Martins R. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 62', Carbonell A. ↓, Reko ↑,
- 66', Faria B. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
- 72', Alves R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
- 72', Schutte R. ↓, Davo ↑,
- 72', Negrao G. ↓, Anzai S. ↑,
- 77', Rocha L. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
- 90+2', Davo 🟨,
Chances of winning
Penafiel
35.5% | Draw
30.5% | Lusitânia
34% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Penafiel - Lusitânia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.6
(2.6) |
3.03 ↓
(3.12) |
2.71 ↓
(2.74) |
8.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Penafiel - Lusitânia?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 8% – 64.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 1 - 50%). Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 5).
- Penafiel is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Lusitânia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).
- Including home match between the teams, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Penafiel won against Lusitânia?
Penafiel has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lusitânia won against Penafiel?
Lusitânia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Penafiel - Lusitânia were as follows:
13.09.2025
Lusitânia
-
Penafiel
0:0
Latest results of Penafiel
Latest results of Lusitânia
Portuguese Liga 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Maritimo | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 37:16 | 21 | 47 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 41:25 | 16 | 41 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 37:22 | 15 | 38 |
| 4 | Torreense | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 28:24 | 4 | 36 |
| 5 | Lusitania FC | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 32:35 | -3 | 34 |
| 6 | FC Porto B | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28:31 | -3 | 34 |
| 7 | Leiria | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 33:31 | 2 | 32 |
| 8 | Vizela | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 27:26 | 1 | 32 |
| 9 | Feirense | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:27 | 1 | 31 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 32:30 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Chaves | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 25:21 | 4 | 30 |
| 12 | Leixoes | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26:40 | -14 | 28 |
| 13 | Felgueiras | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 28 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 20:22 | -2 | 27 |
| 15 | Oliveirense | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Portimonense | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 24 |
| 17 | SC Farense | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 20:30 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Pacos Ferreira | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 20:32 | -12 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )
Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga 3
