Result
2:1
25/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal 2 - Round 19
- Referee: Neves G. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Portugal | Sport TV7 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', 1 - 0, Lopes A. ⚽, Silva J. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 49', Reko 🟨,
- 53', Miguel J. 🟨,
- 60', Alloh T. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
- 60', Davo ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
- 64', Miguel J. ↓, Mere J. ↑,
- 64', Schutte R. ↓, Sery J. ↑,
- 65', 1 - 1, Sery J. ⚽,
- 67', Takahashi T. ↓, Lucas Henrique ↑,
- 76', Douglas Borel ↓, Martelo P. ↑,
- 79', Reko ↓, Kebe I. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 1, Bruno Silva ⚽,
- 90+1', Bura (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+4', Bruno Silva ↓, Joao Adriano ↑,
- 90+4', Silva J. ↓, Joanderson ↑,
Chances of winning
Oliveirense
36.3% | Draw
29% | Penafiel
34.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oliveirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penafiel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Oliveirense - Penafiel Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.56 ↑
(2.29) |
3.2 ↓
(3.22) |
2.68 ↓
(3.09) |
7.7%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Oliveirense - Penafiel?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Oliveirense will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Penafiel (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 1.
- Oliveirense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Penafiel has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Oliveirense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Penafiel has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oliveirense won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 28:24. (average 1.4:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Oliveirense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:11. (average 1.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Oliveirense won against Penafiel?
Oliveirense has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Penafiel won against Oliveirense?
Penafiel has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Oliveirense - Penafiel were as follows:
17.08.2025
Penafiel
-
Oliveirense
0:0
20.01.2025
Oliveirense
-
Penafiel
2:2
11.08.2024
Penafiel
-
Oliveirense
4:3
03.02.2024
Penafiel
-
Oliveirense
1:1
27.08.2023
Oliveirense
-
Penafiel
3:1
Latest results of Oliveirense
Latest results of Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Maritimo | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 46:23 | 23 | 63 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 56:33 | 23 | 54 |
| 3 | Torreense | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 37:30 | 7 | 50 |
| 4 | Leiria | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 50:40 | 10 | 49 |
| 5 | Vizela | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 38:36 | 2 | 47 |
| 6 | Leixoes | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 40:50 | -10 | 44 |
| 7 | Lusitania FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42:48 | -6 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Porto B | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 37:42 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Feirense | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 42 |
| 10 | Chaves | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36:34 | 2 | 42 |
| 11 | Benfica B | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 42:40 | 2 | 41 |
| 12 | Sporting CP B | 31 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 41:32 | 9 | 41 |
| 13 | Felgueiras | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 28:35 | -7 | 40 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 33:34 | -1 | 38 |
| 15 | SC Farense | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 27:35 | -8 | 36 |
| 16 | Pacos Ferreira | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 30:44 | -14 | 35 |
| 17 | Portimonense | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 33 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 31:43 | -12 | 30 |
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )
Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga 3
