Result
0:1
18/04/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 43
- Referee: Linington J. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 3 |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay, V Sport 2 |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Match 4, Net4+ |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Ireland | NOW |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 8 |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay, V Sport 2 |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Viaplay |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Singapore | mio Sports 1 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 1 Premium |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport Premium |
 Turkey | Exxen |
 United-kingdom | NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Ultra |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.67 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (192/307) | 56% (128/227) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.78 | 0.67 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.53 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 20 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (192/307) | 56% (128/227) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (28/69) | 22% (13/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (84/137) | 44% (35/80) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (7/41) | 23% (3/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 83 | 62 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 30 | 81 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.53 | 0.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.47 | 0.54 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 10', 0 - 1, Alli M. ⚽,
- 15', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 29', Langas S. 🟨,
- 38', Morris C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 68', Alli M. 🟨,
- 72', Dabo L. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
- 73', Jones I. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
- 76', Langas S. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
- 81', Clark J. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
- 81', Morris C. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
- 90+3', Armstrong H. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
- 90+4', Alli M. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
- 90+5', Jackson K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
38.3% | Draw
32.3% | Luton Town
29.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1%)
Derby County - Luton Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.48 ↑
(2.14) |
2.95 ↓
(3.35) |
3.25 ↓
(3.41) |
5.1%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Derby County - Luton Town?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Luton (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Derby (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Derby County will win
(34 of 41 users predict this - 82.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 94.45%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Luton (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.
- The game of competitors is shaky now.
- Derby will have a mini benefit in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Brown D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Nyambe R.
(Injury)
Osborn B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Thigh Injury)
Roofe K.
(Hamstring Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Knee Injury)
Ward J.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Knee Injury)
Brown J.
(Ankle Injury)
Lockyer T.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Elder C.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
- There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A.
(Injury)
- Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Luton Town?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Derby County?
Luton Town has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Luton Town were as follows:
20.12.2024
Luton Town
-
Derby County
2:1
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Luton Town
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 72:38 | 34 | 71 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 54:35 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 60:34 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Millwall | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 47:40 | 7 | 62 |
| 5 | Hull | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 60 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54:45 | 9 | 57 |
| 7 | Southampton | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 53 |
| 8 | Derby | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 52:46 | 6 | 51 |
| 9 | Watford | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 48:44 | 4 | 50 |
| 11 | Preston | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 41:40 | 1 | 49 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 46:46 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 35 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 50:48 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Stoke | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 47 |
| 15 | QPR | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 46:54 | -8 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 40:43 | -3 | 46 |
| 17 | Norwich | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 47:44 | 3 | 45 |
| 18 | Charlton | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 41 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:44 | -10 | 39 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:46 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | West Brom | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Leicester | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 47:56 | -9 | 34 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 35 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21:71 | -50 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
