Derby County vs Luton Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

18/04/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Pride Park (Derby).

Championship - Round 43
Referee: Linington J. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	mio Sports 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Ultra
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.67
Ball Possession
59%	41%
Total shots
14	8
Shots on target
4	1
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
9	4
Passes
63% (192/307)	56% (128/227)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78	0.67
xG on target (xGOT)
0.54	0.53
Total shots
14	8
Shots on target
4	1
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked Shots
7	2
Shots inside the Box
12	7
Shots outside the Box
2	1
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
9	4
Touches in opposition box
38	20
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
13	9
Passes
63% (192/307)	56% (128/227)
Long passes
41% (28/69)	22% (13/58)
Passes in final third
61% (84/137)	44% (35/80)
Crosses
17% (7/41)	23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.41	0.31
Fouls
9	13
Tackles
65% (11/17)	63% (5/8)
Duels won
83	62
Clearances Total
30	81
Interceptions
4	3
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	4
xGOT faced
0.53	0.54
Goals prevented
-0.47	0.54

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Alli M. ⚽,
15', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
29', Langas S. 🟨,
38', Morris C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Alli M. 🟨,
72', Dabo L. ↓, Mengi T. ↑,
73', Jones I. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
76', Langas S. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
81', Clark J. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
81', Morris C. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
90+3', Armstrong H. ↓, Barkhuizen T. ↑,
90+4', Alli M. ↓, Chong T. ↑,
90+5', Jackson K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Derby County
38.3%

Draw
32.3%

Luton Town
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

28.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-1%)

Derby County - Luton Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.14)	2.95 ↓ (3.35)	3.25 ↓ (3.41)	5.1% (5.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Derby County - Luton Town?

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (34 of 41 users predict this - 82.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 94.45%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.
The game of competitors is shaky now.
Derby will have a mini benefit in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Roofe K. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury)
There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Elder C. (Lacking Match Fitness)
There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).
Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Luton Town?

Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Derby County?

Luton Town has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Luton Town were as follows:

20.12.2024 Luton Town - Derby County 2:1

Latest results of Derby County

12.04.2025 Portsmouth - Derby County 2:2 ✺

08.04.2025 Derby County - Burnley 0:0 ✺

05.04.2025 Swansea City - Derby County 1:0 ✺

02.04.2025 Derby County - Preston North End 2:0 ✺

15.03.2025 Plymouth Argyle - Derby County 2:3 ✺

Latest results of Luton Town

12.04.2025 Luton Town - Blackburn Rovers 0:1 ✺

08.04.2025 Stoke City - Luton Town 1:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Luton Town - Leeds United 1:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Hull City - Luton Town 0:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Luton Town - Middlesbrough 0:0 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Birmingham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Blackburn	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Derby	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Middlesbrough	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Portsmouth	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Bristol City	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Charlton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Hull	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Leicester	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Norwich	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Preston	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	QPR	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Sheffield Utd	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Sheffield Wed	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Southampton	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Stoke	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Watford	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	West Brom	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
21	Millwall	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
22	Swansea	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
23	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
24	Oxford Utd	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Premier League
      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One