Derby County vs Luton Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
0:1
18/04/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 43
  • Referee: Linington J. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilDisney+
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay, V Sport 2
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 3
hungaryHungaryMatch 4, Net4+
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
irelandIrelandNOW
israelIsraelSport 2
japanJapanDAZN Japan
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 8
mexicoMexicoDisney+
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 2
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandViaplay
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
singaporeSingaporemio Sports 1
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1 Premium
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
turkeyTurkeyExxen
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomNOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football, Sky Ultra
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.67
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
148
Shots on target
41
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
94
Passes
63% (192/307)56% (128/227)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.780.67
xG on target (xGOT)
0.540.53
Total shots
148
Shots on target
41
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
72
Shots inside the Box
127
Shots outside the Box
21
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
94
Touches in opposition box
3820
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
139
Passes
63% (192/307)56% (128/227)
Long passes
41% (28/69)22% (13/58)
Passes in final third
61% (84/137)44% (35/80)
Crosses
17% (7/41)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.410.31
Fouls
913
Tackles
65% (11/17)63% (5/8)
Duels won
8362
Clearances Total
3081
Interceptions
43
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
04
xGOT faced
0.530.54
Goals prevented
-0.470.54

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Alli M. ,
  • 15', Mendez-Laing N. , Jackson K. ,
  • 29', Langas S. 🟨,
  • 38', Morris C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 68', Alli M. 🟨,
  • 72', Dabo L. , Mengi T. ,
  • 73', Jones I. , Burke R. ,
  • 76', Langas S. , Goudmijn K. ,
  • 81', Clark J. , Nakamba M. ,
  • 81', Morris C. , Nordas L. ,
  • 90+3', Armstrong H. , Barkhuizen T. ,
  • 90+4', Alli M. , Chong T. ,
  • 90+5', Jackson K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Derby County
38.3%
Draw
32.3%
Luton Town
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.1% 28.2% 27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2% 28.8% 28.3%

Derby County - Luton Town Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
2.48
(2.14)
2.95
(3.35)
3.25
(3.41)
5.1%
(5.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Derby County - Luton Town?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Luton (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Derby (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Derby County will win (34 of 41 users predict this - 82.93%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 71.41%94.45%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 4 - 80%). Luton (votes: 1 - 20%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.
    • The game of competitors is shaky now.
    • Derby will have a mini benefit in this match.
    • There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Roofe K. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Elder C. (Lacking Match Fitness)
    • There are questionable in Luton: Doughty A. (Injury)
    • Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:10 (average 1.4:1.4).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Luton Town were as follows:
    20.12.2024 Luton Town - Derby County 2:1
    Latest results of Derby County
    Latest results of Luton Town
    08.04.2025 Stoke City - Luton Town 1:1
    05.04.2025 Luton Town - Leeds United 1:1
    29.03.2025 Hull City - Luton Town 0:1
    15.03.2025 Luton Town - Middlesbrough 0:0
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry28177461:313058
    2Middlesbrough28157642:291352
    3Ipswich27148547:242350
    4Hull27145845:39647
    5Millwall28137832:35-346
    6Preston281110736:29743
    7Watford27119738:32642
    8Stoke281251133:25841
    9Wrexham281011740:35541
    10Derby28118938:36241
    11Bristol City281171038:31740
    12QPR281171038:39-140
    13Birmingham281081038:37138
    14Leicester281081039:41-238
    15Southampton28991040:40036
    16Swansea281061231:35-436
    17Sheffield Utd271021536:40-432
    18Charlton27881127:34-732
    19West Brom28941531:43-1231
    20Norwich28861435:40-530
    21Portsmouth26781123:36-1329
    22Blackburn27771325:36-1128
    23Oxford Utd27591325:35-1024
    24Sheffield Wed27181818:54-36-7

          Promotion ~ Premier League
          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One