Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/05/2025 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Machida GION Stadium (Machida).

J1 League - Round 17
Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.62	0.94
Ball Possession
35%	65%
Total shots
13	8
Shots on target
3	2
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
2	7
Passes
71% (224/315)	80% (471/589)
Yellow Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.62	0.94
xG on target (xGOT)
1.94	0.79
Total shots
13	8
Shots on target
3	2
Shots off target
6	5
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
8	4
Shots outside the Box
5	4
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
2	7
Touches in opposition box
28	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
5	6
Passes
71% (224/315)	80% (471/589)
Long passes
44% (28/63)	31% (20/65)
Passes in final third
59% (88/148)	61% (92/152)
Crosses
6% (1/17)	13% (2/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.52	0.68
Throw-ins
35	28
Fouls
6	5
Tackles
68% (13/19)	61% (14/23)
Duels won
58	55
Clearances
35	38
Interceptions
14	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	0
xGOT faced
0.79	1.94
Goals prevented
0.79	-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Hayashi K. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Koga T. (Own goal),
35', Hayashi K. 🟨,
37', Nakajima S. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
37', Toshima S. ↓, Yamada Y. ↑,
45+2', 3 - 0, Na Sang-Ho (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nakama H. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
46', Harada W. ↓, Inukai T. ↑,
60', Hosoya M. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
69', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Duke M. ↑,
69', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Numata T. ↑,
80', Sento K. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
87', Nishimura T. ↓, Takahashi D. ↑,
87', Mae H. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Machida Zelvia
38.2%

Draw
31.4%

Kashiwa Reysol
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

30%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.9%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.23)	3 ↓ (3.14)	3.09 ↓ (3.4)	6.3% (6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashiwa: 32% – 80.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).
Machida Zelvia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Kashiwa is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Nakayama Y. (Concussion) Narasaka T. (Knee Injury) Soma Y. (Injury)
There will not play in Kashiwa: Sugioka D. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Kashiwa Reysol?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kashiwa Reysol won against Machida Zelvia?

Kashiwa Reysol has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol were as follows:

19.10.2024 Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia 1:1

03.05.2024 Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol 2:0

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

11.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia 2:2 ✺

07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia 1:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia 1:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Machida Zelvia - Shonan Bellmare 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Kashiwa Reysol

14.05.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashiwa Reysol 0:2 ✺

10.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama 2:0 ✺

06.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol 1:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata 1:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	35	20	7	8	53:29	24	67
2	Kashiwa Reysol	35	18	12	5	55:33	22	66
3	Kyoto	35	17	11	7	59:37	22	62
4	Vissel Kobe	34	18	7	9	43:28	15	61
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	35	17	8	10	39:26	13	59
6	Machida	35	16	9	10	49:35	14	57
7	Kawasaki Frontale	35	15	11	9	65:50	15	56
8	Urawa Reds	35	14	11	10	40:36	4	53
9	Gamba Osaka	35	16	5	14	48:52	-4	53
10	Cerezo Osaka	35	13	10	12	54:50	4	49
11	FC Tokyo	35	12	9	14	39:47	-8	45
12	Shimizu S-Pulse	35	11	11	13	39:44	-5	44
13	Verdy	35	11	9	15	22:36	-14	42
14	Avispa Fukuoka	34	10	11	13	32:37	-5	41
15	Okayama	35	11	8	16	31:40	-9	41
16	Nagoya Grampus	35	10	10	15	42:52	-10	40
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	35	10	7	18	39:44	-5	37
18	Yokohama FC	35	8	8	19	23:41	-18	32
19	Shonan Bellmare ✔	34	6	8	20	29:58	-29	26
20	Albirex Niigata ✔	34	4	10	20	30:56	-26	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Clinched Spots for Teams

Shonan Bellmare is Relegated to J2 League
Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League