Mainz vs Heidenheim – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
2:1
13/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 17
  • Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports Start
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 4
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
1.411.41
Ball possession
41%59%
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
64
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
41
Passes
73% (253/346)76% (375/491)
Yellow cards
22
Expected goals (xG)
1.411.41
xG on target (xGOT)
2.741.42
Total shots
1315
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
56
Blocked shots
25
Shots inside the box
1110
Shots outside the box
25
Hit the woodwork
01
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
41
Touches in opposition box
2623
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
02
Free kicks
1011
Passes
73% (253/346)76% (375/491)
Long passes
43% (25/58)37% (26/71)
Passes in final third
58% (70/121)61% (74/121)
Crosses
36% (5/14)6% (1/17)
Expected assists (xA)
2.680.38
Throw ins
2739
Fouls
1110
Tackles
71% (10/14)70% (14/20)
Duels won
6067
Clearances
5533
Interceptions
1113
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
02
Goalkeeper saves
34
xGOT faced
1.422.74
Goals prevented
0.420.74

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 30', 1 - 0, Widmer S. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
  • 34', Veratschnig N. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
  • 45', Kohr D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Schoppner J. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,
  • 48', 2 - 0, Amiri N. ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
  • 54', Pieringer M. 🟨,
  • 59', Kaufmann M. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
  • 59', Pieringer M. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
  • 59', Sieb A. ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
  • 60', 2 - 1, Schimmer S. ⚽,
  • 75', Niehues J. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
  • 77', Gimber B. 🟨,
  • 82', Fohrenbach J. ↓, Wagner Y. ↑,
  • 88', Schmidt F. 🟨,
  • 90', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 90', Tietz P. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
  • 90+4', Widmer S. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Mainz
52.7%		Draw
25.6%		Heidenheim
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.2% 25.9% 18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2% 25% 18.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
  • Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
    •

    Mainz - Heidenheim Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.81 ↑
    (1.71)    		 3.69 ↑
    (3.64)    		 4.43 ↓
    (5)    		 5%
    (6.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Heidenheim?
  • Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 34 - 68%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 8 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 16%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 55.1% – 80.9%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Heidenheim (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DC - Heidenheim (2.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Mainz (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.75 - Mainz (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Mainz (1.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Heidenheim (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Heidenheim (3.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 19 - 65.5%). Heidenheim (votes: 9 - 31%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.4%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • In this match, Mainz is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Weiper N. (Illness)
    • There will not play in Heidenheim: Behrens H. (Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury) Zivzivadze B. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Mainz - Heidenheim were as follows:
    16.02.2025 Heidenheim - Mainz 0:2
    28.09.2024 Mainz - Heidenheim 0:2
    05.05.2024 Heidenheim - Mainz 1:1
    16.12.2023 Mainz - Heidenheim 0:1
    Latest results of Mainz
    10.01.2026 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺
    18.12.2025 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Heidenheim
    10.01.2026 Heidenheim - Köln 2:2 ✺
    21.12.2025 Heidenheim - Bayern Munich 0:4 ✺
    13.12.2025 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Heidenheim - Freiburg 2:1 ✺
    29.11.2025 Union Berlin - Heidenheim 1:2 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich ✔ 292441105:277876
    2Dortmund29197360:293164
    3Stuttgart29175760:382256
    4RB Leipzig29175756:362056
    5Bayer Leverkusen29157759:392052
    6Hoffenheim29156857:431451
    7Eintracht Frankfurt29119954:54042
    8Freiburg291171142:47-540
    9Mainz29891235:44-933
    10Augsburg29961436:53-1733
    11Union Berlin29881333:50-1732
    12Hamburger SV297101232:45-1331
    13FC Koln29791343:50-730
    14B. Monchengladbach29791335:49-1430
    15Werder Bremen29771532:52-2028
    16St. Pauli29671625:50-2525
    17Wolfsburg29561839:65-2621
    18Heidenheim29471832:64-3219

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

    Clinched Spots for Teams
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