Mainz vs Samsunspor – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
2:0
18/12/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 6
  • Referee: Al-Emara M. (Fin)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, Q Arena Asia, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaRTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1, Play Sports 4
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
bulgariaBulgariaRing, Voyo
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceCanal+ Live 7
germanyGermanyRTL, RTL+
greeceGreeceANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 3
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 2
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport 2, Viaplay
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 1
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO, TDM Desporto
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 5
swedenSwedenDisney+
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, RTL, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
turkeyTurkeyTabii, TRT 1
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDiscovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 7
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamON Plus
worldWorldVIX App

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.710.73
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
137
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
76% (298/393)81% (389/478)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
1.710.73
xG on target (xGOT)
2.571.08
Total shots
137
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
32
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
112
Shots outside the Box
25
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
316
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1010
Passes
76% (298/393)81% (389/478)
Long passes
30% (18/61)51% (32/63)
Passes in final third
62% (71/114)53% (50/94)
Crosses
9% (2/22)8% (1/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.650.19
Throw-ins
2324
Fouls
1010
Tackles
77% (10/13)91% (10/11)
Duels won
3842
Clearances
1935
Interceptions
1511
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.082.57
Goals prevented
1.080.57

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 9', Marius 🟨,
  • 33', Ntcham O. ↓, Cift Y. E. ↑,
  • 44', 1 - 0, Widmer S. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 48', 2 - 0, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 57', Yavru Z. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
  • 57', Musaba A. ↓, Bulbul T. ↑,
  • 69', Weiper N. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
  • 75', Cift Y. E. 🟨,
  • 77', Widmer S. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
  • 84', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
  • 85', Tomasson L. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
  • 85', Holse C. ↓, Aydogdu S. ↑,
  • 90+1', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 90+1', Amiri N. ↓, Moreno Fell F. ↑,

Chances of winning


Mainz
51.5%		Draw
24.2%		Samsunspor
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.7% 21.2% 18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1% 20.4% 17.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.
  • Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samsunspor's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+11.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samsunspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Mainz - Samsunspor Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.84 ↑
    (1.54)    		 3.93 ↓
    (4.41)    		 3.94 ↓
    (5.19)    		 5.2%
    (6.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Mainz - Samsunspor?
  • Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 25 - 86.2%). Samsunspor will win (votes: 2 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 73.6% – 98.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Mainz (2.12) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Mainz (1.86) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH -1 - Samsunspor (1.54) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Samsunspor (2.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Mainz will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 26 high ROI users predict this event. Mainz (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Samsunspor (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
    • Recently, Mainz has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Mainz is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Tauer N. (Inactive) Veratschnig N. (Red Card) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Samsunspor: Aydin E. (Inactive) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Ndiaye C. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Ustun E. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Inactive) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Widmer S. (Calf Injury)
    • There are questionable in Samsunspor: Coulibaly T. (Knee Injury)
    • The teams have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Mainz
    14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    30.11.2025 Freiburg - Mainz 4:0 ✺
    27.11.2025 Universitatea Craiova - Mainz 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Samsunspor
    14.12.2025 Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir 0:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Samsunspor - AEK Athens 1:2 ✺
    05.12.2025 Galatasaray - Samsunspor 3:2 ✺
    01.12.2025 Samsunspor - Alanyaspor 1:1 ✺
    27.11.2025 Breiðablik - Samsunspor 2:2 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    3Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    4Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    5Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    6Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    8Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    9Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    10Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    11AEK Athens (3)Bye
    12Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    13Mainz (7)Bye
    14AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    15Strasbourg (1)Bye
    16Rakow (2)Bye
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