Union Berlin vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
2:2
10/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 16
  • Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 6
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
bulgariaBulgariaPlay Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 7
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaVision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayViaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
portugalPortugalDAZN 3, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 3
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 3
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
3.531.10
Ball possession
57%43%
Total shots
179
Shots on target
56
Big chances
63
Corner kicks
21
Passes
73% (349/475)65% (247/380)
Yellow cards
20
Expected goals (xG)
3.531.10
xG on target (xGOT)
2.721.95
Total shots
179
Shots on target
56
Shots off target
93
Blocked shots
30
Shots inside the box
148
Shots outside the box
31
Hit the woodwork
21
Headed goals
20
Big chances
63
Corner kicks
21
Touches in opposition box
3415
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
01
Free kicks
89
Passes
73% (349/475)65% (247/380)
Long passes
33% (24/73)29% (24/82)
Passes in final third
57% (89/155)44% (43/98)
Crosses
43% (9/21)29% (2/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.881.22
Throw ins
2325
Fouls
98
Tackles
55% (12/22)70% (16/23)
Duels won
6670
Clearances
3136
Interceptions
44
Errors leading to shot
12
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
43
xGOT faced
1.952.72
Goals prevented
-0.050.72

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 19', Leite D. 🟨,
  • 30', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 57', Doekhi D. 🟨,
  • 65', Kemlein A. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
  • 65', Burcu L. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
  • 69', 0 - 2, Hollerbach B. ⚽, Veratschnig N. (A),
  • 71', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
  • 71', Burke O. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
  • 77', 1 - 2, Jeong Woo-Yeong ⚽, Kohn D. (A),
  • 78', Leite D. ↓, Ljubicic M. ↑,
  • 78', Amiri N. ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
  • 78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
  • 85', Tietz P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
  • 86', 2 - 2, Doekhi D. ⚽, Kohn D. (A),

Chances of winning


Union Berlin
43.2%		Draw
29.9%		Mainz
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.6% 29% 26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46% 29.9% 25.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)
  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
    •

    Union Berlin - Mainz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.2 ↑
    (2.13)    		 3.18 ↓
    (3.28)    		 3.55 ↓
    (3.59)    		 5.1%
    (5.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Union Berlin - Mainz?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DNB - Union Berlin (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Mainz (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Union Berlin (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (42 of 52 users predict this - 80.77%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 70.06% – 91.48%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Union Berlin will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 23 high ROI users predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 3.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • Union Berlin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Union Berlin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Knock) Rothe T. (Injury) Skarke T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mainz: Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 1.9:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 2.7:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Union Berlin - Mainz were as follows:
    19.01.2025 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:1
    24.08.2024 Mainz - Union Berlin 1:1
    07.02.2024 Mainz - Union Berlin 1:1
    20.08.2023 Union Berlin - Mainz 4:1
    04.02.2023 Union Berlin - Mainz 2:1
    Latest results of Union Berlin
    05.01.2026 Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin 1:2
    20.12.2025 Köln - Union Berlin 0:1 ✺
    12.12.2025 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺
    06.12.2025 Wolfsburg - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺
    03.12.2025 Union Berlin - Bayern Munich 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of Mainz
    21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺
    18.12.2025 Mainz - Samsunspor 2:0 ✺
    14.12.2025 Bayern Munich - Mainz 2:2 ✺
    11.12.2025 Lech Poznań - Mainz 1:1 ✺
    05.12.2025 Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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