Result
2:2
17/01/2026 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- 1. Lig - Round 21
- Referee: Erdemir B. (Tur)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, beIN Sports 2 MAX, Tabii Spor 6, Tabii |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.26 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (250/330) | 87% (465/534) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 2.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 8 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (250/330) | 87% (465/534) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (23/62) | 45% (17/38) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 48% (30/62) | 64% (81/126) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (3/6) | 33% (7/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.20 | 1.16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 88% (14/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.15 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | -0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 44', Aksoy D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 48', Toure B. 🟨,
- 52', 1 - 0, Matur O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 58', Yildiz A. ↓, Aksu C. B. ↑,
- 60', Herelle C. ↓, Vargas A. ↑,
- 60', Kiprit M. ↓, Erdem U. ↑,
- 64', Toure B. ↓, Cissokho M. ↑,
- 64', Guler E. ↓, Uzel B. ↑,
- 66', Yilmaz B. 🟨,
- 69', 1 - 1, Diony L. ⚽, Talum Y. (A),
- 76', Gureler Y. 🟨,
- 84', Adekanye B. ↓, Kahraman O. ↑,
- 85', Aydemir E. ↓, Abdulkadir A. ↑,
- 88', Benrahou Y. 🟨,
- 90+4', Yilmaz B. 🟨,
- 90+6', 1 - 2, Benrahou Y. ⚽,
- 90+7', Benrahou Y. 🟨,
- 90+8', Vargas A. 🟨,
- 90+9', 2 - 2, Aksoy E. ⚽, Matur O. (A),
Chances of winning
Hatayspor
4.6% | Draw
10.4% | Manisa FK
84.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hatayspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hatayspor's form might have worsened.Manisa FK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manisa FK's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (+12.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hatayspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manisa FK than the current prediction. (-24.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manisa FK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Hatayspor - Manisa FK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
20.31 ↑
(5.17) |
9.05 ↑
(4.1) |
1.09 ↓
(1.55) |
7.7%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.75
What is the prediction for Hatayspor - Manisa FK?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Hatayspor will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Manisa will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Manisa: 29.6% – 90.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Hatayspor (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Manisa (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- EH +1 - Manisa (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +2.5 - Manisa (1.81) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Hatayspor (5.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Hatayspor (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Manisa (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:3.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 13).
- Hatayspor has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Manisa is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Manisa is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Manisa: Karapo A.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Manisa: Karapo A.
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Hatayspor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Hatayspor won against Manisa FK?
Hatayspor has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Manisa FK won against Hatayspor?
Manisa FK has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hatayspor - Manisa FK were as follows:
17.08.2025
Manisa FK
-
Hatayspor
2:1
Latest results of Hatayspor
Latest results of Manisa FK
Turkish First League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Erzurumspor | 35 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 79:24 | 55 | 78 |
| 2 | Amedspor | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 77:36 | 41 | 72 |
| 3 | Erokspor | 35 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 79:33 | 46 | 70 |
| 4 | Corum | 35 | 19 | 7 | 9 | 55:37 | 18 | 64 |
| 5 | Bodrumspor | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 69:36 | 33 | 62 |
| 6 | Pendikspor | 35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 54:31 | 23 | 58 |
| 7 | Keciorengucu | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 67:40 | 27 | 54 |
| 8 | Bandirmaspor | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 43:33 | 10 | 53 |
| 9 | Sivasspor | 35 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 44:38 | 6 | 50 |
| 10 | Manisa FK | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 50:54 | -4 | 49 |
| 11 | Igdir FK | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 47:48 | -1 | 48 |
| 12 | Vanspor FK | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 48:40 | 8 | 46 |
| 13 | Sariyer | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 41:41 | 0 | 46 |
| 14 | Umraniyespor | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 42:44 | -2 | 43 |
| 15 | Istanbulspor AS | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 43:52 | -9 | 43 |
| 16 | Boluspor | 35 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 52:54 | -2 | 42 |
| 17 | Serik Spor | 35 | 10 | 6 | 19 | 39:69 | -30 | 36 |
| 18 | Sakaryaspor | 35 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 44:62 | -18 | 33 |
| 19 | Hatayspor | 35 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 27:96 | -69 | 10 |
| 20 | Adana Demirspor ✔ | 35 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 20:152 | -132 | -54 |
Promotion ~ Super Lig
Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Adana Demirspor is Relegated to
