Result
3:1
02/03/2026 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 21
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 17', 1 - 0, Cheruiyot D. ⚽,
- 36', 2 - 0, Imbusia A. ⚽,
- 37', 2 - 1, Ntamba M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', 3 - 1, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Mara Sugar
50.8% | Draw
29.2% | Sofapaka
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mara Sugar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Sofapaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mara Sugar than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mara Sugar that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sofapaka than the current prediction. (+4%)
Mara Sugar - Sofapaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↓
(1.82) |
3.1 ↓
(3.21) |
4.54 ↑
(4.33) |
10.4%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Mara Sugar - Sofapaka?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Mara Sugar (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Mara Sugar (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Mara Sugar (2.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Mara Sugar (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Mara Sugar will win
(4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Mara Sugar (votes: 5 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League).
- In recent matches, Mara Sugar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Sofapaka has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Mara Sugar is considered a favorite.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Mara Sugar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Mara Sugar won against Sofapaka?
Mara Sugar has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sofapaka won against Mara Sugar?
Sofapaka has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mara Sugar - Sofapaka were as follows:
28.10.2025
Sofapaka
-
Mara Sugar
2:2
01.03.2025
Sofapaka
-
Mara Sugar
1:1
24.11.2024
Mara Sugar
-
Sofapaka
1:1
Latest results of Mara Sugar
Latest results of Sofapaka
Kenyan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 38:15 | 23 | 49 |
| 2 | Leopards | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 30:14 | 16 | 43 |
| 3 | Shabana | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 40 |
| 4 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 34:23 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | Police FC | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 20:14 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Muranga | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 31:25 | 6 | 36 |
| 7 | Tusker | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 21:24 | -3 | 34 |
| 8 | Bandari | 23 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | KCB | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 22:23 | -1 | 32 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 25:20 | 5 | 29 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 23:23 | 0 | 28 |
| 12 | Mathare Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 17:22 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Posta Rangers | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 18:27 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 | Kariobangi Sharks | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 15:25 | -10 | 22 |
| 15 | Bidco United | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 15:27 | -12 | 20 |
| 16 | Ulinzi Stars | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19:26 | -7 | 19 |
| 17 | APS Bomet | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 23:32 | -9 | 19 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15:33 | -18 | 14 |
Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Super League
