Toluca vs Mazatlan – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Mazatlan
Result
3:1
27/09/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.210.39
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
52
Passes
88% (365/417)86% (313/362)
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
2.210.39
xG on target (xGOT)
1.900.42
Total shots
1510
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
47
Blocked Shots
50
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
66
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
52
Touches in opposition box
238
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1110
Passes
88% (365/417)86% (313/362)
Long passes
64% (28/44)45% (14/31)
Passes in final third
75% (77/102)74% (73/99)
Crosses
14% (2/14)14% (1/7)
Expected assists (xA)
1.160.29
Throw-ins
1816
Fouls
1011
Tackles
57% (12/21)83% (5/6)
Duels won
4529
Clearances
610
Interceptions
812
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
0.421.90
Goals prevented
-0.58-1.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 22', Merolla L. 🟨,
  • 25', 1 - 0, Herrera H. , Morales R. (A),
  • 26', Colula B. 🟨,
  • 42', Isais M. 🟨,
  • 45+7', Herrera H. 🟥,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Zaleta M. , Lainez M. ,
  • 49', 2 - 0, Bruno Mendez , Briseno A. (A),
  • 58', Barcenas Y. , Hernandez D. ,
  • 58', Merolla L. , Leyva A. ,
  • 63', Castro N. , Barbosa D. ,
  • 63', Angulo J. , Ruiz M. ,
  • 74', Esquivel J. , Dudu ,
  • 74', Colula B. , Meraz R. ,
  • 75', Arce F. , Romero F. ,
  • 75', Morales R. , Paulinho ,
  • 84', Vega A. , Pereira F. ,
  • 89', 3 - 0, Paulinho (Pen),
  • 90+2', 3 - 1, Benedetti N. ,

Chances of winning


Toluca
76.1%
Draw
14.2%
Mazatlan
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
72.8% 16.2% 11%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)
  • Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Toluca - Mazatlan Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.25
    (1.28)
    6.57
    (5.74)
    9.88
    (8.45)
    5.3%
    (7.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
    What is the prediction for Toluca - Mazatlan?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
    • Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Mazatlan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Toluca is the undeniable favorite.
    • There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J. (Yellow Cards) Luan (Injury) del Villar E. (International duty)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A. (Injury) Intriago J. (Hamstring Injury)
    • In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 2.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 3.4:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Mazatlan were as follows:
    24.01.2025 Mazatlan - Toluca 2:1
    04.01.2025 Mazatlan - Toluca 1:3
    17.07.2024 Toluca - Mazatlan 3:0
    20.01.2024 Toluca - Mazatlan 4:1
    10.11.2023 Mazatlan - Toluca 1:0
    Latest results of Toluca
    24.09.2025 Toluca - Monterrey 6:2
    13.09.2025 Toluca - Puebla 3:1
    23.08.2025 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:0
    Latest results of Mazatlan
    23.09.2025 Club León - Mazatlan 2:2
    19.09.2025 Mazatlan - Atlas 1:1
    12.09.2025 Mazatlan - UNAM 1:4
    29.08.2025 Juárez - Mazatlan 1:0
    23.08.2025 Mazatlan - Tigres UANL 2:2
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Toluca ✔ 14102239:162332
    2Tigres UANL ✔ 1595131:141732
    3Cruz Azul ✔ 1595127:171032
    4Club America ✔ 1594231:161531
    5Monterrey ✔ 1593330:24630
    6Guadalajara Chivas1572624:20423
    7Club Tijuana1556426:19721
    8Pachuca1463519:17221
    9Juarez1555524:25-120
    10Atl. San Luis1451820:20016
    11Atlas1544724:33-916
    12UNAM Pumas1536617:22-515
    13Santos Laguna1442817:23-614
    14Queretaro1442815:25-1014
    15Mazatlan FC1527619:27-813
    16Club Leon1534813:27-1413
    17Necaxa1424815:27-1210
    18Puebla15231019:38-199

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)