Result
3:1
27/09/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 0.39 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (365/417) | 86% (313/362) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 0.39 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 0.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (365/417) | 86% (313/362) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 64% (28/44) | 45% (14/31) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (77/102) | 74% (73/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (2/14) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.29 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (12/21) | 83% (5/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 29 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.58 | -1.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 22', Merolla L. 🟨,
- 25', 1 - 0, Herrera H. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
- 26', Colula B. 🟨,
- 42', Isais M. 🟨,
- 45+7', Herrera H. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Zaleta M. ↓, Lainez M. ↑,
- 49', 2 - 0, Bruno Mendez ⚽, Briseno A. (A),
- 58', Barcenas Y. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
- 58', Merolla L. ↓, Leyva A. ↑,
- 63', Castro N. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 63', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 74', Esquivel J. ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 74', Colula B. ↓, Meraz R. ↑,
- 75', Arce F. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 75', Morales R. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 84', Vega A. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
- 89', 3 - 0, Paulinho (Pen),
- 90+2', 3 - 1, Benedetti N. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Toluca
76.1% | Draw
14.2% | Mazatlan
9.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
Toluca - Mazatlan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.25 ↓
(1.28) |
6.57 ↑
(5.74) |
9.88 ↑
(8.45) |
5.3%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - Mazatlan?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Mazatlan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toluca is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J.
(Yellow Cards)
Luan
(Injury)
del Villar E.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A.
(Injury)
Intriago J.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 2.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 3.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Mazatlan?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mazatlan won against Toluca?
Mazatlan has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Mazatlan were as follows:
24.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
2:1
04.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
1:3
17.07.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
3:0
20.01.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
4:1
10.11.2023
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
1:0
Latest results of Mazatlan
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
