Result
3:1
27/09/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
South-america | ViX Latin America |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.21 | 0.39 |
Ball Possession |
---|
54% | 46% |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 3 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Passes |
---|
88% (365/417) | 86% (313/362) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
1 | 2 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.21 | 0.39 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.90 | 0.42 |
Total shots |
---|
15 | 10 |
Shots on target |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 7 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
5 | 0 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
9 | 4 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
6 | 6 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 0 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
5 | 2 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
23 | 8 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 10 |
Passes |
---|
88% (365/417) | 86% (313/362) |
Long passes |
---|
64% (28/44) | 45% (14/31) |
Passes in final third |
---|
75% (77/102) | 74% (73/99) |
Crosses |
---|
14% (2/14) | 14% (1/7) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.16 | 0.29 |
Throw-ins |
---|
18 | 16 |
Fouls |
---|
10 | 11 |
Tackles |
---|
57% (12/21) | 83% (5/6) |
Duels won |
---|
45 | 29 |
Clearances |
---|
6 | 10 |
Interceptions |
---|
8 | 12 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
2 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.42 | 1.90 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.58 | -1.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 22', Merolla L. 🟨,
- 25', 1 - 0, Herrera H. ⚽, Morales R. (A),
- 26', Colula B. 🟨,
- 42', Isais M. 🟨,
- 45+7', Herrera H. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Zaleta M. ↓, Lainez M. ↑,
- 49', 2 - 0, Bruno Mendez ⚽, Briseno A. (A),
- 58', Barcenas Y. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
- 58', Merolla L. ↓, Leyva A. ↑,
- 63', Castro N. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 63', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
- 74', Esquivel J. ↓, Dudu ↑,
- 74', Colula B. ↓, Meraz R. ↑,
- 75', Arce F. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 75', Morales R. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 84', Vega A. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
- 89', 3 - 0, Paulinho (Pen),
- 90+2', 3 - 1, Benedetti N. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Toluca 76.1% | Draw 14.2% | Mazatlan 9.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
Toluca - Mazatlan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.25 ↓ (1.28) |
6.57 ↑ (5.74) |
9.88 ↑ (8.45) |
5.3% (7.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Toluca - Mazatlan?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- Toluca is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Mazatlan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toluca is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J.
(Yellow Cards)
Luan
(Injury)
del Villar E.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Mazatlan: Herrera A.
(Injury)
Intriago J.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 2.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 3.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Mazatlan?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mazatlan won against Toluca?
Mazatlan has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Mazatlan were as follows:
24.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
2:1
04.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
1:3
17.07.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
3:0
20.01.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
4:1
10.11.2023
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
1:0
Latest results of Mazatlan
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Toluca | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 35:16 | 19 | 28 |
2 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 26:11 | 15 | 27 |
3 | Cruz Azul | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 22:15 | 7 | 25 |
4 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
5 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 | 23 |
6 | Pachuca | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16:13 | 3 | 20 |
7 | Club Tijuana | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21:11 | 10 | 19 |
8 | Juarez | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16:15 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
10 | UNAM Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 |
11 | Atlas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21:27 | -6 | 13 |
12 | Club Leon | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12:22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Mazatlan FC | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15:21 | -6 | 11 |
14 | Queretaro | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 14:21 | -7 | 11 |
15 | Atl. San Luis | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 17:20 | -3 | 10 |
16 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 13:21 | -8 | 10 |
17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:21 | -10 | 9 |
18 | Puebla | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10:29 | -19 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )