Result
1:1
12/04/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 14
- Referee: Escobedo Gonzalez A. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, FOX One, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.24 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (519/595) | 77% (292/378) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (519/595) | 77% (292/378) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (26/55) | 39% (23/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (153/183) | 54% (48/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (2/18) | 30% (3/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.77 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 9 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | 0.54 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 33', Luan 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Arteaga V. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
- 46', Luan ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
- 46', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
- 58', Flores L. ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
- 63', Cordova S. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 0, Rossi F. ⚽,
- 73', Meraz R. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
- 73', Medina J. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
- 73', Rossi F. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 83', Macias O. ↓, Munoz S. ↑,
- 90+3', Perez P. 🟨,
- 90+3', Cruz A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Simon S. 🟨,
- 90+7', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro Galvao (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Toluca
67.9% | Draw
18.6% | Atlético San Luis
13.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-4.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Toluca - Atlético San Luis Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.38 ↑
(1.32) |
5.02 ↓
(5.11) |
6.85 ↓
(7.78) |
7.2%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toluca - Atlético San Luis?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 5.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Atlético San Luis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Pereira F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:10. (average 2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 2.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlético San Luis?
Toluca has won 6 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético San Luis won against Toluca?
Atlético San Luis has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Atlético San Luis were as follows:
29.08.2025
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
1:3
16.04.2025
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
0:1
25.08.2024
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:1
19.04.2024
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
1:5
29.10.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
3:1
Latest results of Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | UNAM Pumas | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Toluca | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | Atlas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
| 8 | Club America | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
| 11 | Queretaro | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Juarez | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
