Result
1:0
11/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Referee: Hadzic A. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.41 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (295/376) | 78% (349/446) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.41 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.30 | 0.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (295/376) | 78% (349/446) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (30/58) | 39% (30/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (96/136) | 56% (50/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (6/30) | 0% (0/5) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.31 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 75% (9/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.22 | 0.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.22 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 39', Zarate T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 61', Wilson J. ↓, Ownby B. ↑,
- 61', Perez A. ↓, Serrano R. ↑,
- 62', Goodrum P. ↓, Lancaster C. ↑,
- 62', Vazquez C. ↓, Gavilanes A. ↑,
- 69', Bonfiglio F. 🟨,
- 72', Adams K. 🟨,
- 76', Zarate T. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
- 78', Dia A. ↓, Dayes B. ↑,
- 84', Blanco S. ↓, Celeste F. ↑,
- 86', Davila T. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 0, Ownby B. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Louisville City
69.5% | Draw
18.1% | Miami
12.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Louisville City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Louisville City - Miami Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.34 ↑
(1.32) |
5.14 ↓
(5.45) |
7.51 ↑
(7.3) |
7.6%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
Preview Facts
- Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 4.
- Louisville City has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Miami has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Louisville City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Louisville City is the undisputed favorite.
- We predict that Louisville City will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2.3:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 2.3:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Louisville City won against Miami?
Louisville City has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Miami won against Louisville City?
Miami has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Louisville City - Miami were as follows:
16.08.2025
Miami
-
Louisville City
2:4
02.10.2024
Louisville City
-
Miami
3:0
01.06.2024
Miami
-
Louisville City
1:2
20.09.2023
Miami
-
Louisville City
4:3
13.05.2023
Louisville City
-
Miami
3:1
Latest results of Louisville City
USL Championship Table
2025Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City ✔ | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 56:19 | 37 | 73 |
| 2 | Charleston ✔ | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62:32 | 30 | 62 |
| 3 | North Carolina ✔ | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 40:39 | 1 | 45 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic ✔ | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 48:36 | 12 | 44 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh ✔ | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 32:28 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Loudoun ✔ | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 45:48 | -3 | 42 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 29:29 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Detroit | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 33:35 | -2 | 37 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 34 |
| 11 | Miami FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 29:44 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 36:50 | -14 | 27 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa ✔ | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 50:30 | 20 | 57 |
| 2 | New Mexico ✔ | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic ✔ | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 44:27 | 17 | 48 |
| 4 | El Paso | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 47:45 | 2 | 41 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 39:38 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 48:48 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 44:45 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 35:47 | -12 | 37 |
| 9 | Lexington | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42:52 | -10 | 32 |
| 11 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 23:50 | -27 | 27 |
Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Charleston is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
North Carolina is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Hartford Athletic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Pittsburgh is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Loudoun is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
FC Tulsa is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
New Mexico is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Sacramento Republic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
