Louisville City vs Miami – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Result
1:0
11/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Referee: Hadzic A. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.040.41
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
139
Shots on target
32
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
60
Passes
78% (295/376)78% (349/446)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.040.41
xG on target (xGOT)
0.300.22
Total shots
139
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
46
Blocked Shots
61
Shots inside the Box
113
Shots outside the Box
25
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
60
Touches in opposition box
239
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1914
Passes
78% (295/376)78% (349/446)
Long passes
52% (30/58)39% (30/76)
Passes in final third
71% (96/136)56% (50/90)
Crosses
20% (6/30)0% (0/5)
Expected assists (xA)
1.630.31
Throw-ins
2024
Fouls
1419
Tackles
54% (7/13)75% (9/12)
Duels won
5250
Clearances
1325
Interceptions
113
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
0.220.30
Goals prevented
0.22-0.70

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 39', Zarate T. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 61', Wilson J. ↓, Ownby B. ↑,
  • 61', Perez A. ↓, Serrano R. ↑,
  • 62', Goodrum P. ↓, Lancaster C. ↑,
  • 62', Vazquez C. ↓, Gavilanes A. ↑,
  • 69', Bonfiglio F. 🟨,
  • 72', Adams K. 🟨,
  • 76', Zarate T. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
  • 78', Dia A. ↓, Dayes B. ↑,
  • 84', Blanco S. ↓, Celeste F. ↑,
  • 86', Davila T. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
  • 88', 1 - 0, Ownby B. ⚽,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Louisville City
69.5%		Draw
18.1%		Miami
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
70.3% 17% 12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76% 15.7% 11.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
  • Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+6.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Louisville City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
    •

    Louisville City - Miami Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.34 ↑
    (1.32)    		 5.14 ↓
    (5.45)    		 7.51 ↑
    (7.3)    		 7.6%
    (8.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Louisville City - Miami?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Louisville City (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Louisville City (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 4.
    • Louisville City has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Miami has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Louisville City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Louisville City is the undisputed favorite.
    • We predict that Louisville City will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2.3:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 2.3:0.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Louisville City - Miami were as follows:
    16.08.2025 Miami - Louisville City 2:4
    02.10.2024 Louisville City - Miami 3:0
    01.06.2024 Miami - Louisville City 1:2
    20.09.2023 Miami - Louisville City 4:3
    13.05.2023 Louisville City - Miami 3:1
    Latest results of Louisville City
    04.10.2025 Louisville City - Indy Eleven 2:0
    27.09.2025 Detroit City - Louisville City 0:1 ✺
    20.09.2025 Louisville City - Las Vegas Lights 3:1
    13.09.2025 Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Louisville City 0:2 ✺
    06.09.2025 Rhode Island - Louisville City 0:1
    Latest results of Miami
    04.10.2025 Miami - Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3:1
    26.09.2025 North Carolina - Miami 1:0
    19.09.2025 Miami - Rhode Island 0:1
    13.09.2025 Las Vegas Lights - Miami 0:0
    06.09.2025 Miami - Hartford Athletic 0:1
    USL Championship Table
    2026

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Charleston00000:000
    2Tampa Bay00000:000
    3Pittsburgh00000:000
    4Indy Eleven00000:000
    5Detroit00000:000
    6Louisville City00000:000
    7Miami FC00000:000
    8Hartford Athletic00000:000
    9Birmingham00000:000
    10Loudoun00000:000
    11Rhode Island00000:000
    12Sporting Jax00000:000
    13Brooklyn00000:000


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Orange County SC00000:000
    2New Mexico00000:000
    3Sacramento Republic00000:000
    4FC Tulsa00000:000
    5Colorado Springs00000:000
    6San Antonio00000:000
    7Phoenix Rising00000:000
    8Oakland Roots00000:000
    9Monterey Bay00000:000
    10Las Vegas Lights00000:000
    11El Paso00000:000
    12Lexington00000:000

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

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