Milan vs Fiorentina – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
19/10/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A - Round 7
  • Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaAzam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, ZAP
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 1
angolaAngolaZ Sports 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiaSTARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
australiaAustraliaAmazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Disney+
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 3
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
czech-republicCzech-republicSport 2
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
franceFranceDAZN France
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
hungaryHungaryMatch 4
indonesiaIndonesiaVidio
italyItaly214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 2, ART Sport 1
kuwaitKuwaitShasha
macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 34 Football
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 3
mexicoMexicoDisney+, ESPN
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 2
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean
norwayNorwayVG+
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalSport TV1
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaSTC TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1 Premium
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenTV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 2
tajikistanTajikistanFutbol TV
thailandThailandTrue ID, True Premier Football 3
turkeyTurkeyS Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaDAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.571.08
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
145
Shots on target
41
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
13
Passes
88% (426/484)84% (303/361)
Yellow Cards
33
Expected Goals (xG)
2.571.08
xG on target (xGOT)
2.320.99
Total shots
145
Shots on target
41
Shots off target
73
Blocked Shots
31
Shots inside the Box
102
Shots outside the Box
43
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
13
Touches in opposition box
2211
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1214
Passes
88% (426/484)84% (303/361)
Long passes
60% (26/43)39% (18/46)
Passes in final third
76% (110/145)67% (57/85)
Crosses
31% (4/13)14% (3/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.650.22
Throw-ins
2024
Fouls
1412
Tackles
75% (15/20)71% (5/7)
Duels won
4732
Clearances
2315
Interceptions
49
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
0.992.32
Goals prevented
-0.010.32

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 50', Athekame Z. 🟨,
  • 54', Nicolussi Caviglia H. 🟨,
  • 55', 0 - 1, Gosens R. ,
  • 57', Athekame Z. , Gimenez S. ,
  • 60', Fofana Y. 🟨,
  • 63', 1 - 1, Leao R. , Pavlovic S. (A),
  • 69', Gosens R. , Parisi F. ,
  • 70', Fazzini J. , Gudmundsson A. ,
  • 74', Tomori F. 🟨,
  • 77', Kean M. , Piccoli R. ,
  • 85', Parisi F. 🟨,
  • 86', 2 - 1, Leao R. (Pen),
  • 87', Nicolussi Caviglia H. , Sohm S. ,
  • 88', Ranieri L. 🟨,
  • 88', Mandragora R. , Dzeko E. ,
  • 90', Saelemaekers A. , De Winter K. ,
  • 90+3', Leao R. , Balentien C. ,

Chances of winning


Milan
54.7%
Draw
26.4%
Fiorentina
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62.9% 22% 15.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.2% 20.9% 14.3%

Milan - Fiorentina Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
1.76
(1.51)
3.64
(4.32)
5.08
(6.32)
4%
(5.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Milan - Fiorentina?
  • Users Predictions: 92 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 76 - 82.6%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 10 - 10.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 6.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 74.9%90.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Milan (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Fiorentina (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Fiorentina (2.10) (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 2.
    • Milan is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Fiorentina is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Recently, Fiorentina has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Milan is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Milan: Estupinan P. (Injury) Jashari A. (Calf Injury) Nkunku C. (Toe Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Fiorentina: Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Lamptey T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Milan: Pulisic C. (Thigh Injury) Saelemaekers A. (Thigh Injury)
    • We predict that Milan will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Milan - Fiorentina were as follows:
    05.04.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:2
    06.10.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 2:1
    30.03.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 1:2
    25.11.2023 Milan - Fiorentina 1:0
    04.03.2023 Fiorentina - Milan 2:1
    Latest results of Milan
    05.10.2025 Juventus - Milan 0:0
    28.09.2025 Milan - Napoli 2:1
    23.09.2025 Milan - Lecce 3:0
    20.09.2025 Udinese - Milan 0:3
    14.09.2025 Milan - Bologna 1:0
    Latest results of Fiorentina
    05.10.2025 Fiorentina - Roma 1:2
    02.10.2025 Fiorentina - Sigma Olomouc 2:0
    28.09.2025 Pisa - Fiorentina 0:0
    21.09.2025 Fiorentina - Como 1:2
    13.09.2025 Fiorentina - Napoli 1:3
    Italian Serie A Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1AS Roma1290315:6927
    2AC Milan1274118:9925
    3Napoli1281319:11825
    4Inter1280426:131324
    5Bologna1273221:81324
    6Como1366119:71224
    7Juventus1365217:12523
    8Lazio1253415:9618
    9Udinese1353514:20-618
    10Sassuolo1352616:16017
    11Cremonese1235413:16-314
    12Torino1235411:21-1014
    13Atalanta1227314:14013
    14Cagliari1325613:19-611
    15Genoa1325613:20-711
    16Parma132569:17-811
    17Pisa1217410:16-610
    18Lecce122468:16-810
    19Fiorentina1206610:19-96
    20Verona130678:20-126

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B