Result
1:1
11/01/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A - Round 20
- Referee: Massa D. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360 |
 Albania | Tring Sport 1 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN |
 Armenia | Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1 |
 Asia | STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Azerbaijan | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Caze TV, Disney+ |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 3 |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4 |
 Czech-republic | Sport 1 |
 Denmark | TV2 Play, TV2 Sport |
 Europe | Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic |
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2 |
 France | DAZN France |
 Georgia | Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2 |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 2 |
 Haiti | Tele Haiti |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player |
 Hungary | Match 4 |
 Indonesia | ANTV, Vidio |
 Israel | ONE Sport 2 |
 Italy | 214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Kuwait | Shasha |
 Kyrgyzstan | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Malaysia | Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka |
 Malta | GO TV, TSN Malta 3 |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN |
 Moldova | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Saudi-arabia | STC TV |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 2 |
 South-africa | SuperSport Football |
 South-america | ESPN South |
 South-korea | SPOTV Now |
 Spain | DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 3 |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Tajikistan | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Thailand | True ID, True Premier Football 3 |
 Tunisia | Diwan Sport |
 Turkey | S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1 |
 Turkmenistan | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 1 |
 United-kingdom | DAZN |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Paramount+ |
 Uzbekistan | Setanta Sports 1 |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
 Vietnam | K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.81 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (385/431) | 86% (347/403) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.48 | 1.81 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 0.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (385/431) | 86% (347/403) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (22/43) | 57% (20/35) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 88% (103/117) | 80% (86/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (6/32) | 47% (9/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.07 | 0.94 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 31', Kean M. 🟨,
- 45+2', Vanoli P. 🟨,
- 45+2', Vanoli P. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 53', Estupinan P. 🟨,
- 60', Estupinan P. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
- 60', Fullkrug N. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
- 60', Jashari A. ↓, Rabiot A. ↑,
- 63', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Fofana Y. ↑,
- 65', Mandragora R. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Comuzzo P. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
- 74', Pavlovic S. ↓, Nkunku C. ↑,
- 80', Fagioli N. 🟨,
- 82', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
- 83', Parisi F. ↓, Fortini N. ↑,
- 83', Gosens R. ↓, Ranieri L. ↑,
- 84', Rabiot A. 🟨,
- 90', 1 - 1, Nkunku C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
- 90+1', Ndour C. ↓, Sohm S. ↑,
- 90+4', Fofana Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Fiorentina
27.4% | Draw
28.4% | Milan
44.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fiorentina's performance.Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Milan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-5.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fiorentina that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Fiorentina - Milan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.48 ↓
(4.23) |
3.37 ↓
(3.47) |
2.16 ↑
(1.87) |
4.8%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Fiorentina - Milan?
Users Predictions:
60 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 5 - 8.3%). Milan will win (votes: 45 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 64% – 86%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Fiorentina (1.64) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH +0.5 - Milan (2.17) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Fiorentina (1.36) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Fiorentina (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Milan will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 33 high ROI users predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 12.1%). Milan (votes: 26 - 78.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Milan might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S.
(Ankle Injury)
Tomori F.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Fiorentina: Dzeko E.
(Foot Injury)
Richardson A.
(Inactive)
Viti M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Milan: Nkunku C.
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Fiorentina won against Milan?
Fiorentina has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Milan won against Fiorentina?
Milan has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fiorentina - Milan were as follows:
19.10.2025
Milan
-
Fiorentina
2:1
05.04.2025
Milan
-
Fiorentina
2:2
06.10.2024
Fiorentina
-
Milan
2:1
30.03.2024
Fiorentina
-
Milan
1:2
25.11.2023
Milan
-
Fiorentina
1:0
Latest results of Fiorentina
Italian Serie A Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Inter | 26 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 62:21 | 41 | 64 |
| 2 | AC Milan | 26 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 41:20 | 21 | 54 |
| 3 | Napoli | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 39:27 | 12 | 50 |
| 4 | AS Roma | 26 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 34:16 | 18 | 50 |
| 5 | Juventus | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 43:25 | 18 | 46 |
| 6 | Como | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 41:19 | 22 | 45 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 36:22 | 14 | 45 |
| 8 | Bologna | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 35:32 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lazio | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 26:25 | 1 | 34 |
| 11 | Udinese | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 28:39 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | Parma | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 32 |
| 13 | Cagliari | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 28:35 | -7 | 29 |
| 14 | Genoa | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 32:37 | -5 | 27 |
| 15 | Torino | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 25:47 | -22 | 27 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30:39 | -9 | 24 |
| 17 | Cremonese | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 21:36 | -15 | 24 |
| 18 | Lecce | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 17:33 | -16 | 24 |
| 19 | Pisa | 26 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 20:43 | -23 | 15 |
| 20 | Verona | 26 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 19:46 | -27 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
