Milan vs Fiorentina: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/04/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan).

: Serie A - Round 31
Referee: Ayroldi G. (Ita)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.67	1.96
Ball Possession
52%	48%
Total shots
19	15
Shots on target
6	8
Big Chances
3	6
Corner Kicks
7	4
Passes
87% (353/407)	88% (327/371)
Yellow Cards
4	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.67	1.96
xG on target (xGOT)
2.07	2.89
Total shots
19	15
Shots on target
6	8
Shots off target
5	5
Blocked Shots
8	2
Shots inside the Box
15	10
Shots outside the Box
4	5
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
3	6
Corner Kicks
7	4
Touches in opposition box
30	30
Through passes
75% (3/4)	100% (1/1)
Offsides
2	4
Free Kicks
12	12
Passes
87% (353/407)	88% (327/371)
Long passes
48% (15/31)	64% (30/47)
Passes in final third
70% (74/105)	71% (61/86)
Crosses
27% (3/11)	55% (6/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.35	1.29
Fouls
12	12
Tackles
43% (6/14)	41% (7/17)
Duels won
38	39
Clearances Total
15	23
Interceptions
7	7
Errors leading to shot
2	1
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	4
xGOT faced
2.89	2.07
Goals prevented
1.89	0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Thiaw M. (Own goal),
10', 0 - 2, Kean M. ⚽, Dodo (A),
23', 1 - 2, Abraham T. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
23', Musah Y. ↓, Jovic L. ↑,
31', Mari P. 🟨,
41', Dodo 🟨,
41', Hernandez T. 🟨,
45+4', Walker K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Abraham T. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
58', Leao R. 🟨,
58', Pulisic C. 🟨,
59', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
59', Cataldi D. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
64', 2 - 2, Jovic L. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
66', de Gea D. 🟨,
72', Pongracic M. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
72', Parisi F. ↓, Folorunsho M. ↑,
80', Fofana Y. ↓, Bondo W. ↑,
80', Pulisic C. ↓, Chukwueze S. ↑,
80', Gimenez S. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
88', Mandragora R. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
90+2', Palladino R. 🟥,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Milan
50.5%

Draw
26.5%

Fiorentina
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

24.3%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

28.3%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Fiorentina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Milan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Milan - Fiorentina Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.78)	3.63 ↓ (3.98)	4.13 ↓ (4.54)	4.5% (3.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Milan - Fiorentina?

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 21 - 72.4%). Fiorentina will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 56.1% – 88.7%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Milan (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Fiorentina (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 8).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Milan won 3.
One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
Milan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Milan is a favorite.
There will not play in Milan: Emerson Royal (Calf Injury) Jimenez A. (Yellow Cards) Loftus-Cheek R. (Surgery)
There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Colpani A. (Foot Injury)
There are questionable in Milan: Reijnders T. (Illness)
There are questionable in Fiorentina: Gosens R. (Knee Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Milan won 10 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 30:24 (average 1.5:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Milan won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:7 (average 1.8:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Milan won against Fiorentina?

Milan has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fiorentina won against Milan?

Fiorentina has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Milan - Fiorentina were as follows:

06.10.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 2:1

30.03.2024 Fiorentina - Milan 1:2

25.11.2023 Milan - Fiorentina 1:0

04.03.2023 Fiorentina - Milan 2:1

13.11.2022 Milan - Fiorentina 2:1

Latest results of Milan

02.04.2025 Milan - Inter Milan 1:1 ✺

30.03.2025 Napoli - Milan 2:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Milan - Como 2:1 ✺

08.03.2025 Lecce - Milan 2:3 ✺

02.03.2025 Milan - Lazio 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Fiorentina

30.03.2025 Fiorentina - Atalanta 1:0 ✺

13.03.2025 Fiorentina - Panathinaikos 3:1 ✺

09.03.2025 Napoli - Fiorentina 2:1 ✺

06.03.2025 Panathinaikos - Fiorentina 3:2 ✺

28.02.2025 Fiorentina - Lecce 1:0 ✺

Italian Serie A Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Pisa	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Cremonese	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Inter	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Torino	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Parma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Verona	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Como	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B

Which TV channels are streaming of Milan - Fiorentina?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football, Setanta Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 2, Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia