Result
1:2
14/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 37
- Referee: O'Connor J. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 1.82 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 59% (195/332) | 53% (155/292) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 1.82 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.20 | 1.26 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 59% (195/332) | 53% (155/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (24/82) | 28% (25/90) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (46/99) | 43% (37/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (3/16) | 56% (5/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 43 | 41 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 81% (13/16) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 64 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 46 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.26 | 2.20 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.74 | 1.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 30', Wright W. 🟨,
- 36', 0 - 1, Gilbey A. ⚽, Collins A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 47', Crowley D. 🟨,
- 49', Hoilett J. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 1, Clarke O. ⚽, Drinan A. (A),
- 60', Crowley D. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
- 63', Nichols T. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
- 63', Hoilett J. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
- 68', Tafazolli R. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 71', Jones G. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
- 71', Kelly L. ↓, Nelson C. ↑,
- 78', Clarke O. ↓, Mabete F. ↑,
- 79', 1 - 2, Ekpiteta M. ⚽, Hogan S. (A),
- 88', Collins A. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
30.7% | Draw
28.1% | Milton Keynes Dons
41.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-4%)
Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.03 ↑
(2.6) |
3.33
(3.33) |
2.28 ↓
(2.49) |
6.9%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Milton Keynes Dons will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 1.
- Recent performances by Swindon have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- MK Dons is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- MK Dons may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- MK Dons might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Glatzel P.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Tafazolli R.
(Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W.
(Inactive)
Mendez-Laing N.
(Inactive)
Nelson C.
(Inactive)
Paterson C.
(Inactive)
Wilson K.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J.
(Inactive)
Olakigbe M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R.
(Inactive)
Maguire L.
(Inactive)
Matete J.
(Inactive)
- In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:35. (average 1.1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.8:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Milton Keynes Dons?
Swindon Town has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Swindon Town?
Milton Keynes Dons has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons were as follows:
26.12.2025
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
1:0
11.11.2025
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
0:4
03.05.2025
Swindon Town
-
Milton Keynes Dons
0:0
09.11.2024
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
3:1
17.02.2024
Swindon Town
-
Milton Keynes Dons
1:2
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 39 | 22 | 13 | 4 | 62:36 | 26 | 79 |
| 2 | MK Dons | 39 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 76:40 | 36 | 74 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 38 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 56:28 | 28 | 72 |
| 4 | Notts Co | 38 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 65:39 | 26 | 70 |
| 5 | Swindon | 39 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 63:45 | 18 | 69 |
| 6 | Salford | 39 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 54:48 | 6 | 67 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 38 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 56:40 | 16 | 62 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 39 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 61:52 | 9 | 62 |
| 9 | Crewe | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 58:47 | 11 | 60 |
| 10 | Walsall | 39 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 48:41 | 7 | 60 |
| 11 | Oldham | 37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 44:31 | 13 | 58 |
| 12 | Barnet | 39 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 49:43 | 6 | 57 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 39 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 48:46 | 2 | 54 |
| 14 | Colchester | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 50:41 | 9 | 53 |
| 15 | Accrington | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 38:42 | -4 | 48 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 44:56 | -12 | 45 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 40:60 | -20 | 43 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 43:65 | -22 | 42 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 39 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 37:63 | -26 | 41 |
| 20 | Tranmere | 39 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 48:69 | -21 | 36 |
| 21 | Crawley | 39 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 36:60 | -24 | 31 |
| 22 | Newport | 39 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 39:67 | -28 | 31 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 39 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 29:58 | -29 | 30 |
| 24 | Barrow | 38 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 36:63 | -27 | 29 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
