Result
1:0
26/12/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 22
- Referee: Atkinson B. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 1.49 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 62% (181/293) | 75% (316/419) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 1.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 0.80 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 62% (181/293) | 75% (316/419) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (30/82) | 52% (34/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 45% (54/119) | 68% (73/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 17% (4/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 1.17 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 62 | 63 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.80 | 1.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 17', 1 - 0, Nemane A. ⚽, Gilbey A. (A),
- 21', Munroe F. 🟨,
- 38', Collar W. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 53', Oldaker D. 🟨,
- 59', Munroe F. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 60', McGregor J. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
- 63', Collar W. ↓, Thompson-Sommers K. ↑,
- 63', Nemane A. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
- 70', Collins A. ↓, Hepburn-Murphy R. ↑,
- 72', Bodin B. ↓, Ehibhatiomhan P. ↑,
- 72', Tafazolli R. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
- 88', Oldaker D. ↓, Tabor J. ↑,
- 89', Jones G. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Milton Keynes Dons
49.6% | Draw
27.3% | Swindon Town
23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.9%)
Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.89 ↓
(1.98) |
3.4 ↓
(3.65) |
4.02 ↑
(3.34) |
7.2%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Swindon will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 30.4% – 86.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 3.
- Now, both teams are in good form.
- Recently, Swindon has had a series of home games.
- MK Dons will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in MK Dons: Mendez-Laing N.
(Inactive)
Sanders J.
(Inactive)
Tomlinson J.
(Inactive)
Wilson K.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Wilson-Brown T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in MK Dons: Hogan S.
(Inactive)
Maguire L.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Swindon: Delaney R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:20. (average 2:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 2.3:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Milton Keynes Dons won against Swindon Town?
Milton Keynes Dons has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Milton Keynes Dons?
Swindon Town has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town were as follows:
11.11.2025
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
0:4
03.05.2025
Swindon Town
-
Milton Keynes Dons
0:0
09.11.2024
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
3:1
17.02.2024
Swindon Town
-
Milton Keynes Dons
1:2
28.10.2023
Milton Keynes Dons
-
Swindon Town
3:2
Latest results of Milton Keynes Dons
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Salford | 33 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 46:43 | 3 | 55 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52:44 | 8 | 53 |
| 9 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 10 | Walsall | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 42:36 | 6 | 53 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46:37 | 9 | 52 |
| 12 | Colchester | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 13 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 14 | Oldham | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 45 |
| 15 | Fleetwood | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 43:42 | 1 | 45 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 46:59 | -13 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
| 24 | Newport | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:60 | -28 | 25 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
