Result
1:0
27/09/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Referee: May C. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.71 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (393/490) | 75% (328/439) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.71 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (393/490) | 75% (328/439) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (39/86) | 35% (26/75) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (115/159) | 57% (76/134) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 5% (1/20) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.66 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.95 | -0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 67', Luis Felipe ↓, Jamieson L. ↑,
- 71', 1 - 0, Rebollar A. ⚽, Scott T. (A),
- 73', Bennett K. 🟨,
- 77', Djedje R. ↓, Wanner D. ↑,
- 80', Lopez R. 🟨,
- 85', Lopez R. ↓, Willey B. ↑,
- 85', Benitez M. ↓, Baker C. ↑,
- 87', Gnaulati X. ↓, Sojberg A. ↑,
- 90', Klein J. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
- 90+3', Gurr J. 🟨,
- 90+3', Campuzano N. 🟨,
- 90+7', Rebollar A. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
Chances of winning
Monterey Bay
25.8% | Draw
29.1% | Sacramento Republic
45.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+0.6%)The ML Model estimate for Sacramento Republic aligns with the current prediction.
Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.61 ↑
(3.51) |
3.2 ↓
(3.26) |
2.07 ↓
(2.1) |
7.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 0.
- Monterey Bay has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Sacramento Republic is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Recently, Sacramento Republic has had a series of away games.
- Sacramento Republic will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.7:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Monterey Bay won against Sacramento Republic?
Monterey Bay has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sacramento Republic won against Monterey Bay?
Sacramento Republic has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Monterey Bay - Sacramento Republic were as follows:
09.08.2025
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
1:0
09.10.2024
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
2:2
08.06.2024
Monterey Bay
-
Sacramento Republic
0:2
07.05.2024
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
2:0
05.08.2023
Monterey Bay
-
Sacramento Republic
0:1
Latest results of Monterey Bay
Latest results of Sacramento Republic
USL Championship Table
MainEastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 56:19 | 37 | 73 |
| 2 | Charleston | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62:32 | 30 | 62 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 40:39 | 1 | 45 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 48:36 | 12 | 44 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 32:28 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Loudoun | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 45:48 | -3 | 42 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 29:29 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Detroit | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 33:35 | -2 | 37 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 34 |
| 11 | Miami FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 29:44 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 36:50 | -14 | 27 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 50:30 | 20 | 57 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 44:27 | 17 | 48 |
| 4 | El Paso | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 47:45 | 2 | 41 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 39:38 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 48:48 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 44:45 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 35:47 | -12 | 37 |
| 9 | Lexington | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42:52 | -10 | 32 |
| 11 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 23:50 | -27 | 27 |
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