Result
1:0
09/08/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Referee: Osmanovic E. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 0.38 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (376/432) | 83% (311/374) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 0.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 0.25 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 9 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (376/432) | 83% (311/374) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (24/45) | 32% (14/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (114/146) | 71% (46/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 6% (1/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.55 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 78% (7/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.25 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', Lara A. 🟨,
- 38', 1 - 0, Lopez R. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 60', Guediri S. ↓, Lyons M. ↑,
- 60', Malango M. ↓, Klein J. ↑,
- 65', Gallaway P. ↓, Fonguck W. ↑,
- 65', Gnaulati X. ↓, Sojberg A. ↑,
- 67', Ross N. ↓, Willey B. ↑,
- 67', Herrera J. ↓, Bennett K. ↑,
- 76', Lopez R. ↓, Luis Felipe ↑,
- 76', Parano C. ↓, Jamieson L. ↑,
- 82', Benitez M. 🟨,
- 86', Garcia J. 🟨,
- 90', Cicerone R. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sacramento Republic
63.3% | Draw
22.3% | Monterey Bay
14.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sacramento Republic's performance.Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sacramento Republic that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (+4%)
Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.46 ↓
(1.68) |
4.16 ↑
(3.57) |
6.43 ↑
(4.78) |
7.9%
(8.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 3.
- Sacramento Republic is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Monterey Bay is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Sacramento Republic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Sacramento Republic is the undisputed favorite.
- We predict that Sacramento Republic will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sacramento Republic won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.4:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sacramento Republic won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Sacramento Republic won against Monterey Bay?
Sacramento Republic has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monterey Bay won against Sacramento Republic?
Monterey Bay has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay were as follows:
09.10.2024
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
2:2
08.06.2024
Monterey Bay
-
Sacramento Republic
0:2
07.05.2024
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
2:0
05.08.2023
Monterey Bay
-
Sacramento Republic
0:1
17.06.2023
Sacramento Republic
-
Monterey Bay
0:1
Latest results of Sacramento Republic
Latest results of Monterey Bay
USL Championship Table
2025Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 42:17 | 25 | 48 |
| 2 | Charleston | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 41:21 | 20 | 44 |
| 3 | North Carolina | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31:27 | 4 | 33 |
| 4 | Loudoun | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31:29 | 2 | 31 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 20:19 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Detroit | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 28 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 29:23 | 6 | 26 |
| 8 | Indy Eleven | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 32:37 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Rhode Island | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 15:23 | -8 | 21 |
| 10 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 21:34 | -13 | 20 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24:33 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 22:31 | -9 | 18 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37:23 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 29:17 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | El Paso | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 33:27 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 25:26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Phoenix Rising | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 35:37 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | Lexington | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 28:25 | 3 | 27 |
| 8 | New Mexico | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26:28 | -2 | 27 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25:29 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Monterey Bay | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 23:29 | -6 | 24 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 24:32 | -8 | 21 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 17:39 | -22 | 20 |
Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )
